California Anti-Same-Sex-Marriage Amendment Polling:

Just as a reminder of how numbers can change over time, and from poll to poll:

Is the reason for the shift "a television ad campaign that features footage of San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom proclaiming same-sex marriage is here to stay 'whether you like it or not'"? Or is there no real shift, given the margin of error and given the broader possibility of variation based on factors such as who tended to be at home when the pollsters called? In any case, this is just a reminder not to put too much stock in pre-election polls.