Let the Speculation Begin:
Is there going to be a Supreme Court opening this summer? Justice Ginsburg poured kerosene on the embers of speculation in a recent speech. The AP reports:
Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg told law students there could be an opening on the Supreme Court soon but didn't hint at who might be leaving.
Ginsburg spoke Friday at New England Law's annual "Law Day."
In a question-and-answer session, she said the nine justices only take pictures together when a new member is added. She said: "We haven't had any of those for some time, but surely we will soon."
Should be an interesting summer.
Though, whoever the nominee is better make sure they don't screw up their taxes right now.
Weigh the pros and cons. PA Governor Rendell, a democrat will certainly appoint another loyal democrat to replace Specter, probably, a black from Philadelphia, which, in turn, will lessen the pressure to keep Burris. Specter will vote almost as liberally as Justice Ginsberg has. And, Obama will almost certainly have to fill the same spot later in this administration because Specter's health isn't much better than Ginsberg's.
Also, the reason the overall survival rate for pancreatic cancer is quite low is that it is usually in an advanced stage by the time it is diagnosed. That's because its early symptoms are hard to distinguish from those of other, more common conditions. Doctors generally recognize it for what it is only when the patient becomes jaundiced, but by then it is almost always too late.
Justice Ginsburg's cancer was found very early -- so early, in fact, that she didn't have any symptoms at all. The tumor turned up in a scheduled physical exam, which may have been more attuned to such things because of her prior bout of cancer. Her doctors said her prognosis is quite good.
Just a few months ago, Ginsburg told an audience at Columbia Law School that she intended to stay on the Court for several more years. She didn't yet know she was sick, but I don't think she would change her mind so quickly unless her condition were more serious than has been reported.
You assume that Arlen Specter, age 79, would agree. Given his age, I doubt your scenario.
And I thought we all agreed that Kagan would now be at the top of the short list.
I say stevens is gone at the end of this session...with Souter leaving if Ginsberg is healthy next year, and waiting another year if she's not healthy.
I also think that Kennedy will leave before Obama is out of office -- he's a centrist who (philosophically) despises the courts right wing (although he does vote with them at times), and may want to ensure that his seat doesn't go to another wingnut like Scalia or Alito.
I like Sotomayor over Kagan.
Given Spector's ego, and the trouble he might have getting reelected in 2010, I doubt your scenario (that Spector would not agree).
Either two years is "some time" or, perhaps, she is losing her mind.
My money is on Sotomayor: she is in the right age range; she is a circuit court judge (Clinton nominee) and previously a district court judge (G.H.W.Bush nominee); she boasts impressive paper credentials and a compelling personal story; she is likely to satisfy Obama's left ideological scrutiny; she would create a 2nd Circuit vacancy Obama could fill; and she would be a symbolic appointment as a woman and Latina, who republicans would have a hard time opposing at the visible Supreme Court confirmation level because Democrats will ably insinuate the opposition is because of her gender and race. Bush tried departing from the circuit court norm with Miers and got punished for it. Obama won't make the same mistake.
I can think of a woman with the empathy to turn her back on corporate law to embrace the "helping professions", despite the tremendous financial hardship it imposed on her family and its need for riding lessons. She has just as much heart as Obama, impeccable educational credentials, and even better, she's black.
Her appointment would be met with accolades for Obama's courage in not letting baseless accusations of nepotism deter him from giving America Justice Michelle Obama.
Does Chelsea even have a law degree?
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