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David Leonhardt's review of Gladwell's Outliers explains why this book gets under people's skin.

It turns out that luck, not pluck, explains success. This thesis mirrors the old battle over criminal responsibility between conservatives who blame criminals and liberals who blame society.

"We look at the young Bill Gates and marvel that our world allowed that 13-year-old to become a fabulously successful entrepreneur," he writes at the end. "But that's the wrong lesson. Our world only allowed one 13-year-old unlimited access to a time-sharing terminal in 1968. If a million teenagers had been given the same opportunity, how many more Microsofts would we have today?"

Social engineering ought to eliminate crime and turn all of us into Bill Gates-—a Lake Woebegone-ish notion that in all markets, everyone should be a monopolist.

Anonymouse:
Leonhardt, of course, leaves out a third possible view- that Gladwell is merely an extremely talented writer who excels at spinning unsubstantiated grand theories about society from a collection of carefully cherrypicked anecdotes.
11.29.2008 11:56am
smitty1e:
@Anonymouse:
If money is the only metric for success, and the grandiosity sells, is that not 'good'?
11.29.2008 11:58am
Michael F. Martin (mail) (www):
Wait is that right? I thought the point was that luck was an under-appreciated aspect of success. As in, it took Bill Gates 10,000 hours of programming work when he was still a teenager to be prepared to start Microsoft in college, but few people in the world had the opportunity to do 10,000 hours of programming while teenagers at that time. In other words, it's both luck and pluck, but more luck and less pluck than conservatives imagine (and possibly more pluck and less luck than liberals imagine). In any case, the message of Outliers probably makes more sense when read alongside Mindset by Carol Dweck.
11.29.2008 12:03pm
Anonymouse:
Sure. He's a terrific writer...of pop science simplified to the point of quasi-fiction. I'm not one to judge whether he is entitled to what he's earned.
11.29.2008 12:05pm
Mahan Atma (mail):
"Social engineering ought to eliminate crime and turn all of us into Bill Gates-—a Lake Woebegone-ish notion that in all markets, everyone should be a monopolist."


I don't know about social engineering, but I'd sure like it if there were more Microsofts (by which I mean more successful OS producers, not monopolies).

If Microsoft had more competitors, maybe they wouldn't get away with putting out a crappy product like Vista, while still holding their position in the market.
11.29.2008 12:09pm
Mahan Atma (mail):
"Sure. He's a terrific writer...of pop science simplified to the point of quasi-fiction."


Have you read this book yet?

I haven't, but it's on my list.
11.29.2008 12:11pm
Norman Bates (mail):
The premise that only upper class children had access to computers back then is demonstrably false.

In the early 1960s any high school kid in the greater Boston area (there had to be hundreds of thousands) who wanted to play with a computer (only mainframes existed back then) could get free classes and access as part of an open-to-all summer program that MIT ran for interested high school kids. The program involved MIT undergraduates volunteering to teach night courses to any interested high school students who wanted to participate:

There were NO requirements. Really interested kids could talk their way into computer access during the year. I know. I was one of them, the son of a construction worker. Friends I met in college informed me of similar type programs all over the country. Many were specifically targeted to attract students from the lower classes.

However, as far as I know these programs produced no Bill Gates equivalents. Those who succeed spectacularly are gifted in many ways. Sometimes good luck may be a factor but just as often the highly successful overcome handicaps and bad luck that would crush persons with lesser gifts and strength of character.
11.29.2008 12:14pm
Jim at FSU (mail):
I think luck is a sort of pervasive influence on the course of everyone's lives, but I don't think it is important in the long run. Obviously it's hard to overcome a catastrophe (getting cancer or being in a car wreck) or a massive inheritance (like your father being president or a billionaire) but most of us are experiencing good and bad luck on a far smaller scale. The difference is typically in how we deal with the good and bad.

I've capitalized on good luck while others have let it pass them by. I've seen opportunities come along but lacked the resources to take advantage of them. I think this happens to everyone, but taking advantage of opportunities is a learned behavior and it requires a willingness to risk resources with no guarantees. You have to realize that this is how life works. You have to be optimistic, willing to take some degree of risk and also constantly on the lookout.

I've also seen people who just accept unfortunate events in their lives even when there are obvious ways to mitigate it or profit from it. They go right into acceptance (as if they had caught terminal cancer or something else for which there is no solution) and never start thinking clearly about their situation. I've been in situations which I thought were hopeless losses at first (a stock drops, a hurricane damages my property, my car collides with some immovable object) and then realized after a bit of thinking that I could completely turn around my situation or even come out ahead.
11.29.2008 12:17pm
BCRowe (mail):
I don't see what's so controversial about this. Wouldn't everyone agree that hard work is a (mostly) necessary but not sufficient condition of success? Of course luck has something to do with it-- what situation you're born into, who you happen to meet, what your parents are like, etc. all determines whether or not that hard work will get you $40k/year or $4M/year.
11.29.2008 12:19pm
Zed:
If luck is responsible for success, then Bill Gates's hundreds of classmates at Lakeside Highschool would all be billionaires as well, since they all had access to the computer terminal.
But Bill Gates and his three close friends (including Paul Allen) were the only ones who spend thousands of hours on the early computers. The others did not.

Furthermore, other early computing billionaires (Jobs, Dell, etc) obviously did not have access to the same terminal at age 13. Maybe it turns out pluck explains success after all? I should write a book about this idea that people generally get numerous lucky opportunities, but successful people take greater advantage of the opportunities.
11.29.2008 12:22pm
nvs (mail):
re: Norman Bates--you confuse actual access with the possibility of access. Just because access could have been gotten rather freely does not mean people received access. I can't believe you wrote 4 paragraphs w/o realizing the difference . . . wait, did I just violate VC's terms of use? Further, even if they did receive access, was it a mind-boggling 10,000 hours worth pre-college?

Otherwise, I agree w/Michael F. Martin--Gladwell is not prone to this kind of writing. Instead, it's always of the form "people ignore factor X in producing Y," where Y is some form of personal success or world occurrence and X is, e.g., small changes (Tipping Point), cognitive abilities (Blink), unique opportunities (Outliers).
11.29.2008 12:24pm
Mahan Atma (mail):
"most of us are experiencing good and bad luck on a far smaller scale."


Who is "us"?

Isn't it extremely lucky (and I dare say a factor in the long-run) that you were born in a modern Western country, and not in Somalia?

(Correct me if I'm wrong - you weren't born in Somalia, right?)
11.29.2008 12:27pm
Dionysius (mail):
Part of luck is the distribution of talents. There is no particular virtue in having those talents and it is not at all clear that the less talented work less than the talented do in seeking to achieve something, even though the talented achieve more with the same effort.
11.29.2008 12:38pm
Chuck (mail):
Junk.

Edison was right about the 99% perspiration. Even if opportunity dropped the same into everyone's laps, the results would entirely depend on the efforts put into making something of that opportunity. Now you're dealing with Churchill's comment about being unprepared when the chance to do a great thing comes your way.

Equal opportunity does not yield, nor does it require or cause, equal results. Neither are equal results predicated on equal opportunity.
11.29.2008 12:46pm
Ken Arromdee:
Furthermore, other early computing billionaires (Jobs, Dell, etc) obviously did not have access to the same terminal at age 13.

And Bill Gates' success had little to do with him being a programmer anyway. At the point where Gates stopped writing code, Microsoft was a successful company, but not a behemoth. Achieving the success we usually think of in connection with Microsoft happened after that and had to do with business skills, not coding skills
11.29.2008 1:01pm
Jim at FSU (mail):
I think I would have done well anywhere I ended up. But "doing well" is only relative to others in my same general situation. I believe you can play a bad hand really well. Because I have.

I was born poor and grew up in a tiny apartment. My dad drove a taxi when I was born, which was a pretty shit job in the 1970s in NYC. I hid from child services, lied about where I lived to get put into a good public school and worked my ass off. I've had a pretty good life outcome so far, but it took years longer than it might have if I came from money. For example, I wouldn't have had to work for nearly a decade before going to law school.

I might be a successful CEO or politician if my parents had been billionaires and sent me to an elite preparatory school in Switzerland. Who knows. Can the government arrange for every child to have the sort of elite circumstances that will give them the opportunity to become the next Bill Gates? I don't think it is realistic, for reasons that should not require explanation. I'm not even sure it is desirable. Besides his money, Bill Gates is far from the "optimal" human being. He has an odd personality and some have even argued that he might be mildly autistic. He's very good at what he does but a society composed of entirely of Bill Gates clones might be a very unhealthy place. No one is perfect. Not even close. Just throwing that out there.

Similarly, if I had grown up in Somalia, assuming I hadn't fallen prey to some horrid disease or a machete wound, I could see myself functioning as a mechanic or a weapons technician. I've always been naturally good with disassembling and/or repairing stuff, I don't see why that would be different in Somalia or anywhere else. The real question is whether I even want to do so. Are we assuming that I was born to and raised by my real life parents or are we assuming that I popped out of some Somalian woman an was raised there? It's an important difference.

Somalia raises a more interesting problem. Somalia isn't a shithole because it's poor, Somalia is a shithole because it's full of Somalians. Who could live a long and successful life when the average person is raised from day one to involve themselves in bloody tribal conflicts, even at the cost of their own lives? Somalia isn't wracked by war because they don't have enough social workers. It's wracked by war because that's all they are devoting themselves to. If they were interested in manufacturing or farming, they'd be doing that instead. But they're interested in shooting and shelling each other as their history amply demonstrates.

Contrast a value system that teaches that the most valuable thing is avenging slights to the tribal honor with a value system that praises learning as much as possible and working your ass off. One of these value systems breeds a society full of lawyers and engineers while the other system breeds a society full of savages who commute to work in technicals.

In the end, this has everything to do with how your parents raised you and little to do with how many computers your classrooms had or even whether you had a classroom. I learned to read before I entered school. I learned to become a successful computer programmer despite not having access to computers until I was in high school. In case you hadn't been paying attention, developing nations are producing shitloads of engineers and programmers. More than we are, actually.
11.29.2008 1:11pm
A. Zarkov (mail):
I doubt Gates became a successful businessman because he was able to spend some extraordinarily large number of hours programming. There are simply too many counter examples to that kind of model of success. So why was Gates so successful? It's obviously some combination of a high IQ which he inherited from this parents, elements of his personality (also inherited), and a nurturing environment for his inborn talents. He was also lucky to be right place at the right time. But without a high level of innate ability, he would not have been able to exploit the opportunities he was lucky enough to have. While a student at Harvard, Gates was lucky to have met Steve Ballmer and Christos Papadimitriou, but he was also insightful enough to realize that he had to drop out of school to take advantage of that narrow window of opportunity that opened up in personal computing. He realized that the new microprocessor technology was not simply a new digital component to bury inside of an instrument, but the launch point of a whole new worldline in the evolution of computers. In other words, the new small computers were not just a scaled down version of mainframes, but something completely new.

Life is not a lottery.
11.29.2008 1:15pm
Norman Bates (mail):
nvs:

you confuse actual access with the possibility of access. Just because access could have been gotten rather freely does not mean people received access.

This statement seems to be almost a parody of how conservatives supposedly characterize the thought processes of liberals: Presenting an opportunity is not sufficient. Somwehow those who choose not to take advantage of this opportunity are innocent victims of societal oppression and those who do choose to take advantage are just lucky members of some elite. Do you envision some sort of system that will force slackers to better themselves and impose impediments for the ambitious who chose to do so?
11.29.2008 1:26pm
juris_imprudent (mail):
The flaw with at least the Gates anecdote is that Gates never wanted to be the best programmer in the world - he wanted to be the richest. His success has been driven by that ambition, not by his technical genius (which is much more limited then his business savvy).

Gladwell churns out more intellectual popcorn.
11.29.2008 1:40pm
Mahan Atma (mail):
"I was born poor and grew up in a tiny apartment. My dad drove a taxi when I was born, which was a pretty shit job in the 1970s in NYC. I hid from child services, lied about where I lived to get put into a good public school and worked my ass off."


Jim, I'm not trying to detract from your success, but if you had born in Somalia, there would have been no "good public school" for you to go to. You would have been lucky to go to any school at all.

"The real question is whether I even want to do so. Are we assuming that I was born to and raised by my real life parents or are we assuming that I popped out of some Somalian woman an was raised there? It's an important difference."


For the purposes of this discussion, it's a meaningless difference. Being born to good parents is every bit a matter of luck as being born in the U.S.

"One of these value systems breeds a society full of lawyers and engineers while the other system breeds a society full of savages who commute to work in technicals."


There's a joke lurking in there, but I won't touch it.

More importantly, for the purposes of this discussion, it doesn't really matter why Somalia is the way it is, because none of it can be attributed to the infant who is unlucky enough to be born there.

I would have thought this to be rather obvious and uncontroversial. Seriously, is there anyone here who would argue against the proposition that being born in a country like Somalia is a tremendous disadvantage in life, and one that cannot be attributed to the laziness of the infant?
11.29.2008 1:54pm
GD:
Everybody makes choices.
11.29.2008 2:05pm
TerrencePhilip:
I think that luck does play a role in success--- look at the legal market, the differences in talent between the hugely successful and the modestly successful seem to me negligible or nonexistent at times. (I'm sure Geoffrey Feiger and the late Johnny Cochran were/are good-- are they really that much better than everyone else?)

Also, Richard Posner's review of Gladwell's last outing, 'Blink,' was devastating. It's well worth a read before you read Gladwell's latest pop-psychology feel-good fest. Apparently these books help Gladwell make lots of money on the corporate lecture circuit, so another when reading them, keep in mind that they tend to reinforce concepts that the folks booking for these speaking events will find agreeable.

I don't want to harsh on him too much, though. It's pleasant light reading, a good airport book.
11.29.2008 2:09pm
JosephSlater (mail):
When the "Bad Boy" version of the Detroit Pistons won their first championship some years ago, Isaiah Thomas, their star point guard, was quoted as saying, "to win a championship, you have to be both good and lucky."

It's obviously true, for the NBA and for various accomplishments in life.
11.29.2008 2:20pm
autolykos:
Couple thoughts, someone separate but interrelated:

1. I had this exact same thought:


This statement seems to be almost a parody of how conservatives supposedly characterize the thought processes of liberals: Presenting an opportunity is not sufficient. Somwehow those who choose not to take advantage of this opportunity are innocent victims of societal oppression and those who do choose to take advantage are just lucky members of some elite. Do you envision some sort of system that will force slackers to better themselves and impose impediments for the ambitious who chose to do so?


nvs needs to look up the word "access" in the dictionary. Talking about the "possibility of access" only makes sense if there's some barrier to access that prohibits everyone from enjoying access.

2. Which brings me to the second point. If people are arguing that luck is a major factor for the Bill Gates' of the world, I'm afraid I can't disagree. Virtually every person who is obscenely wealthy got that way through no small measure of luck, it's just the law of large numbers. There were other people out there as smart as Bill Gates, with the same access to resources and the same interest in personal computing, so it's not a stretch to believe that he succeeded at least in part because of luck.

The question is, so what? Even if luck plays a part, nobody contends it's the only part, and a person can still "succeed" through hard work (for example, by taking advantage of access to the local public library instead of wasting their days watching the idiot box).

3. Part of the problem is how success is defined. I don't think you need to be Bill Gates or Michael Jordan to be a success. I consider the engineer who has a solid job and can support his family to be successful. There are way too many people who misallocate their time pursuing low probability/high reward definitions of success (prospective actors, athletes, musicians, etc.).
11.29.2008 2:30pm
Question (mail):
I find the focus of the quote on the number of teenagers with such computer access to be something of a red herring. The question is not how many teenagers had access, but how many individuals working in the software industry at that time--unless one is of the belief that only college dropouts could have started Microsoft.

In fact, there were many seasoned programmers with far more experience building operating systems, but few of them focused on PCs, which were toys at the time. Further, it wasn't merely Gates' programming skills that positioned Microsoft for success, so I'm not sure the value of those 10,000 hours was realized.

Surely at any point in his career, Warren Buffett had contemporaries who had spent far more cumulative time as investors. But it didn't make them more successful than he was at an early age, as he demonstrated consistently superior insight.

I think these types of metrics may make sense for physical and quasi-physical activities like playing the violin and distance running, but in the world of business there are far too many variables to conveniently explain them this way. Did John D. Rockefeller or Andrew Carnegie have 10,000 hours of practice drilling for oil or making steel, respective? Did they need it?
11.29.2008 2:35pm
Joe in NM:
I wonder about the balance between luck and pluck in this old-fashioned American book
Luck and Pluck By Horatio Alger

Probably leans towards pluck.
11.29.2008 2:45pm
Anderson (mail):
I would have thought that anyone was an idiot who denied that success is always part luck AND part pluck.

Until I read this thread, of course.
11.29.2008 2:54pm
Fub:
A. Zarkov wrote at 11.29.2008 1:15pm:
I doubt Gates became a successful businessman because he was able to spend some extraordinarily large number of hours programming. ... He was also lucky to be right place at the right time.
There is more to that last luck than might be apparent. If Gary Kildall had lept at IBM's offer when they came looking for an OS in 1980, Bill Gates and Microsoft would likely be a footnote, instead of vice-versa.
11.29.2008 3:04pm
Obvious (mail):
MA wouldn't touch the joke of Jim at FSU: "One of these value systems breeds a society full of lawyers and engineers"

I will: Trade offs, always trade offs...
11.29.2008 3:07pm
einhverfr (mail) (www):
Right, because Microsoft excels at technical programming, and Bill Gates is the world's greatest programmer to date..... Also, just think how many more Andrew Carnegies we could have had if we forced more 13-year-olds to work in the steel mills ;-)

[/sarcasm]

Microsoft's real success was based on luck and a general sense of business models. The Quick and Dirty Operating System they bought and sold non-exclusively to IBM is what built their business, not real programming ability.

BTW, I think Microsoft is becoming irrelevant. They had an impressive impact on the market for a while (along with Compaq and Phoenix, they helped to really get the PC revolution going), but everything that Microsoft does really well, open source does even better. Thus I predict that within 10 years, Microsoft will no longer be much of a software company.
11.29.2008 3:19pm
Soronel Haetir (mail):
I have yet to see OSS produce anything comperable to MS Office, there's OpenOffice, but honestly, it's a piece of crap that keeps getting crappier.

Look at how fortran is still the lingua franca for certain scientific arenas before you discount inertia keeping MS relevant.
11.29.2008 3:43pm
Allan Walstad (mail):
Thoughts:

1. Individuals pursue their own goals and purposes, and they are the ultimate judges of their success in that regard. If you're looking for absolutes, there's one for you: no one else's judgment regarding your/my satisfaction trumps yours/mine.

2. Providing unlimited computer access to a million teens in the '60s could have cost money. It would have been an investment. Even if, retrospectively, one might argue that the payoff would have been great, the problem is that investments must be made prospectively, and given limited resources, more investment on one thing means less investment on another. Who gets to make the choices? In a free society, property owners get to decide how to allocate their property. The other alternative was pretty well debunked by the collapse of the collectivist economies two decades ago.
11.29.2008 3:46pm
Sam H (mail):
The break that Bill Gates got was that he understood how big business operates. IBM went to Digital Research (CPM and DR DOS) to discuss buying their operating system. IBM required them to sign a Non-Disclosure Agreement before they would talk, a standard business practice. Digital Research refused and they went to Microsoft. Gates signed it and the rest is history.
11.29.2008 4:05pm
Rob S:
I think the point of the New York Times review and possibly the book (I have not yet read the book) is that since luck (or seized opportunity) is involved in success we should not feel guilty about taking the fruits of these people's labor.

I don't think Bill Gates is a good example of this. Bill Gates took a really big bet (10,000 hrs worth) on what could have turned out to be a dead end time investment (like my brothers attempt to become a stand-up comedian). I think the lesson that should be learned from this is that no one, including government, can predict where future opportunities will be. Governments should allow risk takers extravagant wealth to make the expected return high enough to take outlandish risks. Otherwise Bil Gates would have been better off staying
11.29.2008 4:11pm
Rob S:
Sorry Hit the wrong key

... watching 10,000 hrs of Star Trek with the rest of his nerdy peers.
11.29.2008 4:14pm
R Nebblesworth:
Perhaps Gates' views might be relevant? From the article:

At the end of this revisionist tale, Gladwell asks Gates himself how many other teenagers in the world had as much experience as he had by the early 1970s. “If there were 50 in the world, I’d be stunned,” Gates says. “I had a better exposure to software development at a young age than I think anyone did in that period of time, and all because of an incredibly lucky series of events.”
11.29.2008 4:33pm
Ken Arromdee:
Perhaps Gates' views might be relevant? From the article:

If you look carefully at how that quote is worded, it doesn't say that Bill Gates' unusual degree of exposure to computers was critical to his success. It obviously implies that some portion of it was, but not necessarily that the entire 10000 hours was--I doubt Bill Gates is saying "someone who only had 2000 hours couldn't have succeeded like me".

And if you do read it that way, then he's just wrong, same as he was about 640K being enough for everyone. There are people who didn't have 10000 hours of computer exposure as teenagers who succeeded in computers anyway, and most of Microsoft's expansion had nothing to do with Bill Gates' computer skills anyway.
11.29.2008 5:37pm
Elliot123 (mail):
"Outliers are those who have been given opportunities — and who have had the strength and presence of mind to seize them.”

Looks like two conditions are present here. So, how do we detemine how many have had the opportunties, but lacked the strength and presence of mind to sieze them? Without that data, there can be no conclusions.
11.29.2008 5:43pm
A. Zarkov (mail):
"There is more to that last luck than might be apparent. If Gary Kildall had lept at IBM's offer when they came looking for an OS in 1980, Bill Gates and Microsoft would likely be a footnote, instead of vice-versa."

We don't really know that. Clearly Gates was a better businessman than Kildall, and because of this talent he successfully stuck a deal with IBM where Kildall couldn't. I suspect if things had gone differently with IBM, Kildall still would not have been as successful as Gates.
11.29.2008 6:06pm
A. Zarkov (mail):
"Isn't it extremely lucky (and I dare say a factor in the long-run) that you were born in a modern Western country, and not in Somalia?"

Do you think the grinding poverty we find in Somalia was nothing to do with the Somalians themselves? That it's all an accident of geography?
"The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, But in ourselves, that we are underlings." Julius Caesar (I, ii, 140-141)
11.29.2008 6:16pm
Willie:
Mr. Gladwell's thought processes are wonders to behold: He affects (with apologies to Brian Wilson) a bushy, bushy black hairdo and complains of unusual attention by the police. He goes on to say that when he has a short haircut, he receives no such scrutiny.

Someone with at least a tentative hold on reality would consider the situation and conclude that, to avoid attention, I should have a normal haircut.

Instead, Mr. Gladwell continues to sport an elaborate, provocative coiffure and continues to excoriate the law for giving him the once-over.

Is he an outlier or just an unrealistic dope?

Still, if people want to buy his theories or his books...
11.29.2008 6:27pm
einhverfr (mail) (www):

Look at how fortran is still the lingua franca for certain scientific arenas before you discount inertia keeping MS relevant.


Fortran is a great language for certain applications (quick and dirty mathematical models which are safe from buffer overruns and other things non-computer-scientists are unlikely to check). It may surprise you to know I have actually done work in Fortran 90. Fortran is also remarkably poor at many other tasks (general problem solving engines) because of inflexibility regarding memory management. F90 solved some of these problems but not very well. So it is sort of like a ball peen hammer. Useful for some things, but not for pounding nails, but if every problem is a nail, you have the wrong hammer.

Note regarding MS Office and OpenOffice.... Sure you have a point. Personally I think Gnumeric is the best spreadsheet I have ever worked with, but it is not a part of an office suite. Similarly I use LaTeX for most of my document generation simply because it is better for most things than even MS Word (for the few light tasks that it is not good at, Abiword suffices). Also LaTeX can replace PowerPoint too.

And anyone who thinks that Access as an RDBMS is anything other than atrocious needs to get an education in actual database topics. BTW, when I worked at Microsoft, this was generally the thinking there too.....

So you have a point, but I am not sure that office suits are really where we need work. I think there are better approaches there.

BTW, Windows Vista is the reason my wife uses Linux ;-)
11.29.2008 6:57pm
Clayton E. Cramer (mail) (www):

Our world only allowed one 13-year-old unlimited access to a time-sharing terminal in 1968.
Sorry, I doubt that this is true. I had unlimited access to a very sophisticated time-shared minicomputer system starting in 1971. I learned an enormous amount along the way. I was not alone. One of my friends had similar access to that system, but wasn't interested. His name was Nathan Myhrvold. He ended up starting a software company years later, sold it to Microsoft, and got filthy rich. Luck helps. But having stable home life (like Bill Gates and Nathan Myhrvold) and being really, really smart helps too.
11.29.2008 8:03pm
anon345 (mail):
No luck involved in having a stable home life and being really smart. Nope, no luck there; all pluck.
11.29.2008 8:49pm
TRE:
Of course it is a combination of factors, and there is a high degree of arbitrariness. Not only things like birth, but in other circumstances. I don't know what it was like to be a young Eric Posner, but if he went on to become the greatest legal scholar the world has ever known, I hardly think it would be despite being the son of Richard Posner. For example, Mozart's dad, a person few can name, was a composer, musician, and wrote music instruction textbooks. Bach? similar story. What is so controversial?
11.29.2008 9:21pm
Fraggle Rock (mail):
anon345:
I doubt Bill's parents would consider it luck that they were good parents. I'd imagine they worked quite hard at it. For example, Bill's dad didn't run off leaving his mother to raise Bill alone.
11.29.2008 9:41pm
Mahan Atma (mail):
"Do you think the grinding poverty we find in Somalia was nothing to do with the Somalians themselves? That it's all an accident of geography?

"The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, But in ourselves, that we are underlings." Julius Caesar (I, ii, 140-141)"


Zarkov,

I don't know to what degree poverty in Somalia is due solely to the Somalians themselves as opposed to outside forces, but surely you are not arguing that it is the fault of the infants who are unlucky enough to be born there???

I understand that baby Somalians grow up to be adults (at least the ones that survive do.) But the point is that from the moment they're born, they're subject to incredible disadvantages -- and these disadvantages are likely to affect them for the rest of their lives.

For example, only 1 in 5 Somalian children will have the opportunity to attend primary school. Are you seriously arguing that this is the fault of the children??
11.29.2008 10:12pm
Dilan Esper (mail) (www):
Do you think the grinding poverty we find in Somalia was nothing to do with the Somalians themselves?

What do you mean, "the [Somalis] themselves"? You need to stop thinking about a mass of backwards Africans and think about INDIVIDUAL Somalis. In other words, if a boy who by his aptitude and intelligence could be the next Bill Gates is born in Somalia, how likely is he to succeed? How likely is he to survive infancy, to not get killed in a war, to not die of cholera, to get a decent education, to make contact with people who can move the person into the business world, etc.? And how is that THIS person's fault? Is it some sort of collective punishment because Zarkov, in his wisdom, has decided that all Somalis are bad people?

In another thread, you were accusing me of being an idiot who never tried to learn about the positions of those who disagree with me. I would suggest you take the log out of your own eye before you make any more such criticisms.
11.29.2008 10:37pm
American Psikhushka (mail):
Couple observations:

Around 1999 there were two biographies on television, one on Bill Gates and one on Don King, the boxing promoter. I saw them both and was struck by how much they owed to early deals they assertively set up. Gates by selling IBM an operating system that he didn't even own yet, and King by getting two fighters to sign a blank contract to fight before he had even spoken to both of them. In both cases very adept and assertive dealmaking seemed to be responsible for a large portion of their future success. In any case it seemed to be just as much pluck as luck. But the pluck on Gates' part seemed to be just as much shrewd dealmaking as any kind of technical expertise.

I tend to think it has more to do with pluck than luck. I seem to remember reading an anecdote once that the average millionaire tries a dozen or so different ventures before succeeding.

Societal structure and property rights is unarguably an important part of the process. There would be no Bill Gates if the local politicians or others stold everything from him every time he was about to get off the launch pad. Just another example of how screwing up property rights screws up everything.

And also interest plays a part independent of luck and pluck. There are plenty of people that had the same opportunities as Gates, but not the same interests.
11.29.2008 11:46pm
American Psikhushka (mail):
Also, just think how many more Andrew Carnegies we could have had if we forced more 13-year-olds to work in the steel mills ;-)

einhverfr wins the thread.
11.29.2008 11:51pm
Elliot123 (mail):
When Bill Gates was fifteen there were thousands of programmers loose in the country. They all had computer access.
11.30.2008 12:00am
Mahan Atma (mail):
"einhverfr wins the thread."


Except that Carnegie didn't work in a steel mill as a child.
11.30.2008 12:18am
TRE:
Carnegie did start working at an early age. It is terrible how we (Americans) basically force young people to waste their first 18 years.
11.30.2008 12:40am
Mahan Atma (mail):
"It is terrible how we (Americans) basically force young people to waste their first 18 years."


Please tell me you're kidding.
11.30.2008 12:47am
Ak Mike (mail):
I deal with a number of successful entrepreneurs, as well as various professional people, executives, and so forth. The entrepreneurs are qualitatively different. They are alive to possibilities that others cannot see, they will plunge into what seems to be a morass and come out somehow with a profit, while ignoring other morasses, etc.

Gates is no doubt one of these people. He was going to be a big success no matter what. He was lucky also, but his luck turned him into a multi-billionaire instead of only a multi-millionaire.
11.30.2008 2:56am
Arkady:

The boast of heraldry, the pomp of power,
And all that beauty, all that wealth e'er gave,
Awaits alike the inevitable hour.
The paths of glory lead but to the grave.
11.30.2008 7:15am
putting the luck in pluck:
11.30.2008 8:44am
autolykos:

Except that Carnegie didn't work in a steel mill as a child.


Imagine how much more successful he would have been if he had!


You need to stop thinking about a mass of backwards Africans and think about INDIVIDUAL Somalis. In other words, if a boy who by his aptitude and intelligence could be the next Bill Gates is born in Somalia, how likely is he to succeed? How likely is he to survive infancy, to not get killed in a war, to not die of cholera, to get a decent education, to make contact with people who can move the person into the business world, etc.? And how is that THIS person's fault? Is it some sort of collective punishment because Zarkov, in his wisdom, has decided that all Somalis are bad people?


This feeds back into the theme touched on earlier in the thread, i.e. the infant Bill Gates had no more influence over whether his father chose to stay with his mother than the infant Somali has over whether his countrymen decide to be a bunch of warlord, tribalist pirate thugs.

The question, again, is - so what? Nobody disputes that "luck" plays a large part in the situation a person is born into (though philosophically I'm not sure it's right to call this "luck", as we're each products of our DNA - it's not like human souls are randomly placed in our respective corporeal hosts prior to birth and it's only by the grace of God that the collection of DNA that I consider to be myself was born in America and not Somalia).

We each play the cards we are dealt. Just because some people get dealt better cards doesn't mean it doesn't matter how you play them. In America, you can be a success no matter where you come from.

As for the broader question about Somalia, remember 1993? We've tried to do the job that Somali parents and society should have been doing. It didn't work so well.
11.30.2008 11:11am
Mahan Atma (mail):
"Nobody disputes that "luck" plays a large part in the situation a person is born into"


Apparently, some people do.

"though philosophically I'm not sure it's right to call this 'luck'"


Personally, when I use the term "luck", it's shorthand for "random chance that goes in your favor". Whatever you call it, the fact that I was born in the US instead of Somalia isn't something that I earned through hard work.

"Just because some people get dealt better cards doesn't mean it doesn't matter how you play them."


And I wouldn't dispute that either. But I do think many conservatives want to ignore the enormous role that luck plays.

"In America, you can be a success no matter where you come from."


What if you are born severely retarded? Now that's an extreme example, admittedly, but there's nothing magic about America.

The simple point is that some people are born into disadvantage, and that plays a substantial role in their lives. Even in America.

Yes, it's possible to be born in the ghetto and still succeed, but it's a lot easier to succeed if you're born in Marin or Westchester. On average, those born into ghettos will have to work harder and overcome more adversity to get to the same place.
11.30.2008 11:55am
Fub:
TRE wrote at 11.29.2008 9:21pm:
For example, Mozart's dad, a person few can name, was a composer, musician, and wrote music instruction textbooks.
Ahh. The fame, though not much fortune, of being immortalized by the late Dennis Brain, playing one's best known work on a garden hose.
11.30.2008 12:49pm
Jim at FSU (mail):
Random luck didn't cause me to be born with the parents I got. I am a direct product of their genes and the decisions they made to move to America, marry, copulate and carry me to term. I wasn't born in Somalia because my parents knew better than to move there instead of to America. I wasn't raised thinking that hard work was a form of racial treason- I was taught that it was the root of a successful life.

I'm not lucky. Good parents had good offspring and raised them to have similar values to themselves. I won at natural selection, not the lottery. Whether I was born with a penis or a vagina was luck. Whether I was a second child or a first child was luck. Being born in America to my parents was not luck.

To put it another way, there is no amount of luck that would allow a woman from Kenya to give birth to me and raise me the way my parents did. And there is no amount of government intervention that can correct this. No amount of food stamps or welfare or classroom computers will magically turn sub-Saharan Africans into hardworking, disciplined people with genius level IQs and stable nuclear families. It's genetic and cultural and there are no shortcuts.

And to you retards who still don't get it and point to the "good public school" I went to- I already knew how to read (quickly and with comprehension) before I got anywhere near a school. There were kids with absentee parents in my "good public school" and they had massive reading and math deficits. No matter how many trillions we spend on public education it always comes down to the parents and the children. And again, there are no shortcuts.
11.30.2008 1:13pm
Mahan Atma (mail):
"And to you retards who still don't get it and point to the "good public school" I went to- I already knew how to read (quickly and with comprehension) before I got anywhere near a school. There were kids with absentee parents in my "good public school" and they had massive reading and math deficits."


As the "retard" who pointed to the "good public school", I'll simply point out that that was part of your argument as to why you succeeded. You were the one who used the phrase "good public school", which is why I quoted your phrase exactly.

"Random luck didn't cause me to be born with the parents I got."


Philosophical discussions about "luck" aside, you cannot claim credit for having good parents. That wasn't something that you earned, just like it isn't some other baby's fault that he was born in Somalia.

Seriously, what would you say to the 3 million children under ten who live in Somalia? "Too bad -- You should have had better parents!"
11.30.2008 1:41pm
A. Zarkov (mail):
Dilan Esper:

"In another thread, you were accusing me of being an idiot who never tried to learn about the positions of those who disagree with me."

At no time did I ever refer to you (or anyone else) as an "idiot." I think you have me confused with someone else.

"Is it some sort of collective punishment because Zarkov, in his wisdom, has decided that all Somalis are bad people?"


At no time did I say that "all Somalis are bad people." That's the second time you have put words in my mouth.
11.30.2008 2:28pm
Anderson (mail):
Nobody disputes that "luck" plays a large part in the situation a person is born into

Uh, did you read the above thread?
11.30.2008 3:03pm
A. Zarkov (mail):
Mahan Atma:

"I don't know to what degree poverty in Somalia is due solely to the Somalians themselves as opposed to outside forces, but surely you are not arguing that it is the fault of the infants who are unlucky enough to be born there???"

Dilan Esper:

"In other words, if a boy who by his aptitude and intelligence could be the next Bill Gates is born in Somalia, how likely is he to succeed?"

The population of Somalia is highly unlikely to produce even one person as highly intelligent as Bill Gates. According to his Wikipedia bio, Gates has an IQ of 170. Somalia has a population of approximately 10 million. That's 4.67 standard deviations above the mean for the standard population used to calibrate these scores. The average IQ in sub-Saharan Africa is about 70, which is 6.67 standard deviations below Gates. Here we run into a technical problem. The normal distribution model (the Bell Curve) is unlikely to give the correct probabilities that far out in the upper tail of the distribution. Real world data rarely has that much fidelity to the model. Three standard deviations, sure, but surely not 6, and I suspect not even 4.

Let's fix up the model with an Edgeworth Expansion, where we introduce an additional parameter to account for possible kurtosis in the distribution of IQs. A positive kurtosis fattens the tails and increases the probability of an extreme value.

Instead of an IQ of 70, let's be extremely conservative and use the average IQ of US blacks, which is 85. That's 5.67 standard deviations below Bill Gates. Use lambda= 0.3 in the last formula. That's large enough to be detectable at the sample sizes one finds in IQ studies. Then multiply the population of Somalia by the tail probability, and we get 0.9. Less than one person. If we use the actual average IQ for Somalia, then we get 0.003 persons. Thus under a very conservative calculation, Somalia can't even produce one child with the high intellegence of Bill Gates, let alone nurture him to success.
11.30.2008 3:22pm
Mahan Atma (mail):
But how is any of that even relevant? An infant controls neither his genetics nor his environment, by and large.

You have not answered the question I have repeatedly posed: Surely you are not arguing that any of this is the fault of the infants who are unlucky enough to be born in Somalia?

What do you say to the Somali infant: "You should have been born somewhere else, maybe then you'd have a chance of being the next Bill Gates!"
11.30.2008 3:55pm
autolykos:

Apparently, some people do.


Again, it's a question of how one defines "luck"


Personally, when I use the term "luck", it's shorthand for "random chance that goes in your favor". Whatever you call it, the fact that I was born in the US instead of Somalia isn't something that I earned through hard work.


The fact I was born to my parents was not "luck". The My DNA defines who I am. I could not have been born to any other parents. I'd hardly attribute the fact that my great-grandparents decided to emigrate to the US instead of Somalia to random chance. I'm sure it was a tough choice though.


What if you are born severely retarded? Now that's an extreme example, admittedly, but there's nothing magic about America.

The simple point is that some people are born into disadvantage, and that plays a substantial role in their lives. Even in America.

Yes, it's possible to be born in the ghetto and still succeed, but it's a lot easier to succeed if you're born in Marin or Westchester. On average, those born into ghettos will have to work harder and overcome more adversity to get to the same place.


I don't really care if it's harder to be successful coming from one background or not. Again, I think that's relatively hard to dispute (subject to the exceptions that prove the rule). The simple fact is that Americans are sufficiently lazy that anyone (save the severely handicapped) can outwork their fellow Americans. Most just simply decide not to.

The fact that one would have to work marginally harder than the person just down the road is a poor justification for not working at all. I have zero sympathy for the person who would cast stones at Bill Gates who hasn't worked as hard as him.
11.30.2008 4:15pm
Mahan Atma (mail):
"The fact I was born to my parents was not 'luck'."


Was it something you worked hard to achieve? No, obviously no.

Did you not have an advantage over the average Somali because of it? Yes, in all likelihood.

"The fact that one would have to work marginally harder than the person just down the road is a poor justification for not working at all."


Nobody is making that argument.
11.30.2008 4:35pm
einhverfr (mail) (www):
Mahan Atma:

I think the real issue is that the vast majority of people try to make life at least tolerable in their own environments. When opportunities permit, many also seek intellectual challenges. These often lead to the next great developments.

Hence, in a way similar to what we see in evolutionary ecology, often the empty niches are more important than the filled ones. It is less important that Bill Gates had access to the time sharing terminal than it was that there was an opportunity to make the computing industry more efficient and sooner or later, someone was going to take that opportunity and run with it. After all, there are plenty of better programmers these days than Gates ever was (though they probably work for outfits like the NSA, Cray Inc, and the like). I know some outstanding programmers who grew up around mainframes and some who did not.

Honestly it is both luck and pluck. However, this does not necessarily mean that there could be more Microsoft's today, or that if there were it would be a good thing. Really, the trends are towards cross-corporate cooperation and joint development rather than license fees and centralization, and this is the only structure which can reasonably compete.
11.30.2008 6:42pm
Jim at FSU (mail):

Was it something you worked hard to achieve? No, obviously no.


You don't have to work hard to move towards the earth when you fall off the roof. Despite this, it is still not luck. Your movement towards the ground is determined by natural laws that operate without concern for fairness or public policy. You ignore reality at your peril.

Just because genetics is harder to understand than gravity doesn't make it any less deterministic. Just because you don't have to work hard at something doesn't make it luck. The particulars of which genes and which life lessons I inherited from my parents are random, but only within a relatively narrow set. You can't put red and blue marbles in a sack and pick out a white one at random. That's my point.
11.30.2008 8:28pm
autolykos:

Was it something you worked hard to achieve? No, obviously no.


Luck requires the possibility of an alternative outcome.


Did you not have an advantage over the average Somali because of it? Yes, in all likelihood.


Nobody is arguing otherwise.
11.30.2008 8:38pm
Brian S:
Luck requires the possibility of an alternative outcome.

Exactly.

Your birth could only be a matter of "luck" if we accepted as valid some sort of "lottery of souls" where our "spirits" are sitting around the noumenal world waiting to be put into a body when one becomes available, and your "number" could either randomly make you an American or a Somali based on random statistical chance. This fairy-tale view of the world is, of course, absurd. I could only be me, or not exist. I could not be anyone else. I could not get "assigned" to be a Somali. My dad's sperm and my mom's egg were either go to make me and I would exist exactly as I am now and as no other, or they would not and I would not.

Similarly, being intelligent [to the extent that intelligence has a genetic component] or having a particular set of talents also is not the result of "luck". We don't have fairy godmothers either handing out abilities or meanly holding them back. We either get our genes or we don't. There's no way for me to have been different, because if I had different genes I wouldn't be me at all - I'd be some other guy not involved in this conversation.
11.30.2008 9:53pm
Mahan Atma (mail):
You all want to engage in philosophical discussions about the meaning of the term "luck". Whatever. If you don't like the word "luck", try "arbitrary".

The point is that from the moment of birth, you received something of great benefit that had nothing to do with your own hard work. You did nothing to deserve being born to good parents, or in the U.S.

Other people didn't get those benefits, and it had nothing to do with their being lazy or undeserving.

Isn't that undeniable?
11.30.2008 9:53pm
American Psikhushka (mail):
autolykos-

The fact that one would have to work marginally harder than the person just down the road is a poor justification for not working at all. I have zero sympathy for the person who would cast stones at Bill Gates who hasn't worked as hard as him.

Of course this assumes an environment where one's property rights are honored. Bill Gates would be nothing if his property rights weren't honored and people stold everything from him. Which, hypothetically, would make him monumentally hypocritical if he were involved in violating other people's property rights.
11.30.2008 9:58pm
Mahan Atma (mail):
"Just because genetics is harder to understand than gravity doesn't make it any less deterministic."


Sure, if you are a pure determinist, then yes, there is no such thing as random chance at all (unless you are a Bayesian).

If that's the approach you want to take, then you can also stop taking credit for your own success, because all of your life outcomes were completely predetermined, and you had no choice in the matter.

Just don't try to tell me that such outcomes aren't partly arbitrary (meaning that they are in large part uncorrelated with hard work, or any notion of merit).
11.30.2008 10:01pm
Brian S:
Philosophical discussions about "luck" aside, you cannot claim credit for having good parents. That wasn't something that you earned, just like it isn't some other baby's fault that he was born in Somalia.


I think you are using the word "earned" wrong, if we are talking about earning economic rewards.

As far as I am concerned, the person who "earns" economic wealth is the person who produces the good or service that others are willing to exchange economic values for. If I have $20,000 that I want to spend on obtaining some needed medical procedure, the person who has "earned" that money is the person who can provide me with that medical procedure. How to came to be able to provide that medical procedure is really much less relevant. A person born with great talent who was able to coast along, never exerted a whole lot of effort, but became a proficient doctor anyway, is in a better position to "earn" that $20,000 than someone with no ability who always gave 120% but who still couldn't hack it.

"Earning" in the economic sense isn't really about effort or fault, so the fact that I exerted no effort to be born the person I am isn't relevant, and the fact that it's no individual Somali's fault that they're a Somali isn't relevant. You either produce the economic exchange value or you don't. Only the end result can be worth my $20,000 - effort isn't worth anything, and a sad story about being a Somali isn't worth anything.
11.30.2008 10:02pm
Jim at FSU (mail):

Your birth could only be a matter of "luck" if we accepted as valid some sort of "lottery of souls" where our "spirits" are sitting around the noumenal world waiting to be put into a body when one becomes available, and your "number" could either randomly make you an American or a Somali based on random statistical chance.


Isn't this the sort of peter pan bullshit argument that the left usually mocks the christian fundamentalists for? I couldn't have been born a Somali any more than a tiger could be birthed from a penguin. It simply defies logic to claim there is any sort of equivalence. I'm a product of my parent's choices and my parent's genes, not of some lottery that magically assigned me to the womb of a person living in America.

Why is it unfair that I benefit from my parents investing years of their lives in preparing for and properly executing their child rearing duties? Why shouldn't I be seen a product of their very real union than a product of some metaphysical lottery system that only exists in the head of socialists?
11.30.2008 10:06pm
Brian S:
The point is that from the moment of birth, you received something of great benefit that had nothing to do with your own hard work. You did nothing to deserve being born to good parents, or in the U.S.

Although as I noted above, I think you're applying the wrong model for the concept of earning or "deserving", I'll try to work within your terms for a moment.

Imagine a soap-box derby race is being held for the children in a town where we both live. My parents are rich, and they help me build a kick-ass soap-box derby car. Your parents are poor, and even with their help you build a crappy car. The day of the race comes, and I smoke you in the race, beat the rest of the field, and win the trophy.

You might complain in that circumstance that the contest was unfair, and that I didn't really "deserve" to win the race or the trophy. After all, I didn't do anything to "deserve" to have rich parents.

My counterargument to you would be pretty simple: you misunderstood the basic nature of the race. The race was not between me and you. The race was between me [and my parents] against you [and your parents]. And my team beat your team fair and square.
11.30.2008 10:09pm
Mahan Atma (mail):
"I think you are using the word "earned" wrong, if we are talking about earning economic rewards."


Of course, the word "earned" obviously isn't limited to earning money payments.

If you don't like "earned", try "deserved", or "merited".
11.30.2008 10:13pm
Jim at FSU (mail):

"Just because genetics is harder to understand than gravity doesn't make it any less deterministic."

Sure, if you are a pure determinist, then yes, there is no such thing as random chance at all (unless you are a Bayesian).


I already explained this. When two people conceive a child, it's like taking a bucket of blue marbles and a bucket of red marbles, mixing them together and then plucking out a new bucket worth of marbles. The arrangement is random, but you only get a mix of red and blue marbles.

It is deterministic in that you will never pull out a white, green or purple marble. It's a sampling of two people, not the entire human race. It's why husbands get pissed off when their children have characteristics found in neither parent (gene markers, rare disorders, skin color, blood type, etc). Most non-Somalis would be quite upset if a Somalian popped out of their pregnant wife. Taking our money to give to the proverbial African welfare case is only slightly less offensive.

I admit I'm setting aside fetal development problems and a certain degree of mutation, but this isn't a fine grained discussion of developmental biology or genetics. For the most part, genes are stable from one generation to the next.
11.30.2008 10:19pm
Mahan Atma (mail):
"My counterargument to you would be pretty simple: you misunderstood the basic nature of the race. The race was not between me and you. The race was between me [and my parents] against you [and your parents]."


Somehow, I don't find this to be a very convincing argument...
11.30.2008 10:20pm
Jim at FSU (mail):

Somehow, I don't find this to be a very convincing argument...

Great rebuttal. Take that Darwin.
11.30.2008 10:26pm
Brian S:
Of course, the word "earned" obviously isn't limited to earning money payments.

If you don't like "earned", try "deserved", or "merited".


Right, but once we take economics out of the equation, who really cares if Gladwell's thesis is correct or incorrect?

When you start talking about whether successful people "earned", "deserved", or "merited" their success, the obvious unspoken next step in the argument is corrective action. If some people receive economic rewards they don't deserve, and others are denied economic benefits through no fault of their own, the obvious next stage of the argument is the advocacy of some policy to rectify that by taking from the undeserving rich and giving to the faultless poor. So if we separate out an economic sense of the word "earn" that Gladwell's argument doesn't speak to, well - who cares about it, then? At that point we'd just be talking about moral praise or blame, and unless we're Calvinists or something, I can live without Gladwell's praise, thank you very much. So he doesn't think I "merited" whatever meagre success I enjoy - oh well. Be still my heart. As long as there's no economic component to what we're discussing, I think I can manage to keep my chin up.
11.30.2008 10:26pm
Mahan Atma (mail):
"I already explained this. When two people conceive a child, it's like taking a bucket of blue marbles and a bucket of red marbles, mixing them together and then plucking out a new bucket worth of marbles. The arrangement is random, but you only get a mix of red and blue marbles."


Let me say this again: Forget about the concept of randomness, or "luck".

The point is that you did not do anything to deserve being born to good parents, just as a Somali did not do anything to deserve being born in Somalia.

This tends to undercut the conservative vision of free markets because the concept of capitalism is that people should be rewarded for their hard work, ingenuity, etc. By contrast, you got a huge benefit that had nothing to do with your own hard work.
11.30.2008 10:29pm
Brian S:
Somehow, I don't find this to be a very convincing argument...

Human activity is a cooperative enterprise. If a group of people voluntarily collaborates on a project and that project is successful, it's pointless to try to claim that individual members of the successful team did not "deserve" to succeed, because other members of the team possessed their own talents and made their own contributions.

And a family is great example of a voluntary team or association. Perhaps the best example - the archetypical example.
11.30.2008 10:29pm
Mahan Atma (mail):
"Great rebuttal. Take that Darwin."


OK, let me spell it out for you: Most people think individuals in contests should win them based on their own efforts, not with their parents assistance. Instead of soapbox derbies, let's consider something of significance, like college admissions:

One applicant worked hard throughout high school to earn good grades. Another applicant did not work as hard, but his father did most of his homework for him, so his grades were just as good.

Which applicant deserves to get into Harvard?
11.30.2008 10:36pm
Brian S:
This tends to undercut the conservative vision of free markets because the concept of capitalism is that people should be rewarded for their hard work, ingenuity, etc. By contrast, you got a huge benefit that had nothing to do with your own hard work.

That might be what you think the vision of the free market is, but I think you've seen too many inspirational sports films.

The "merit" [wink wink nudge nudge] of the free market is that it rewards the system participant that delivers the best product or service at the best price. Not that it rewards the hardest working. If it rewarded the hardest working, ditch diggers would be millionaires.

A free economy will generally allow anyone willing to work hard with sustenance, and with some sort of reward for their effort. But that's different than a promise that the hardest worker will be the most successful in their field or the richest.
11.30.2008 10:37pm
Mahan Atma (mail):
"And a family is great example of a voluntary team or association. Perhaps the best example - the archetypical example."


Of course, it goes without saying that being born in Somalia is a huge disadvantage, regardless of your family. There are obvious disadvantages that are way beyond your parents' control.

Suppose my parents put X amount of time, work, and money into my upbringing. If I'm born in Somalia, the same amount of parental input will not completely make up for the fact that I was born in Somalia as compared with the U.S.
11.30.2008 10:42pm
Brian S:
One applicant worked hard throughout high school to earn good grades. Another applicant did not work as hard, but his father did most of his homework for him, so his grades were just as good.

Which applicant deserves to get into Harvard?


Well, what is Harvard's goal in the admissions process?

If it's to maintain its position as the nation's pre-eminent institution of higher learning, with the highest endowment, and with its alumni in positions of dominance throughout the professions and in economic and political life, then it probably should admit the second guy.

Ivy League admissions is actually an interesting window on this discussion. I used to think that it was unfair that legacy admissions played a large part in Ivy League enrollments. I also used to think that the tendency of Ivy League admissions officers to give credit to a certain sort of non-academic achievement in extracurricular activities that most students only participate in for credentialing purposes skewed the entire process. But then I realized what the Ivies were selecting for: the applicant who has family members who are already in important positions, or who can force himself to mindlessly jump through hoops for years in pursuit of a particular credential, is likely to be successful in the future, and thus is likely to reflect well on Harvard, contribute to its endowment, be in a position to assist future graduates, etc. They're selecting for social success, not test-taking success. And they should, when you get right down to it.
11.30.2008 10:43pm
Mahan Atma (mail):
"The "merit" [wink wink nudge nudge] of the free market is that it rewards the system participant that delivers the best product or service at the best price."


But that tends to correlate strongly with hard work, ingenuity, and other meritorious factors.
11.30.2008 10:44pm
Brian S:
Of course, it goes without saying that being born in Somalia is a huge disadvantage, regardless of your family. There are obvious disadvantages that are way beyond your parents' control.

Suppose my parents put X amount of time, work, and money into my upbringing. If I'm born in Somalia, the same amount of parental input will not completely make up for the fact that I was born in Somalia as compared with the U.S.


That just punts the issue back to grandparents, or great-grandparents, or what have you.

A chain of individual events undertaken by a succession of earlier team members put the current team's members in a position to succeed. Saying that's unfair is like saying that it's unfair for a sports team whose front office has been run well for many years to compete against the Detroit Lions. It's not only fair, it's kind of the point.
11.30.2008 10:46pm
Mahan Atma (mail):
"If it rewarded the hardest working, ditch diggers would be millionaires."


First of all, as I have mentioned there are other meritorious factors besides "hard work", particularly if you limit that definition to physical labor.

But I have to tell you, as someone who actually worked as a ditch digger, I find that being a lawyer is harder work. I'd guess that many millionaires work harder than ditch diggers too.
11.30.2008 10:46pm
Mahan Atma (mail):
"That just punts the issue back to grandparents, or great-grandparents, or what have you."


Not at all. The fact is that the environment consists of many non-familial influences. For example, some countries have soil that is better suited to raising crops, or the land is resource-intensive.

Saudi Arabians are some of the richest people in the world. Is that because they have some good grandparents?
11.30.2008 10:50pm
Brian S:
But that tends to correlate strongly with hard work, ingenuity, and other meritorious factors.

Again, I think you're confusing the statement -

"In a free economy, the person willing to work hard can succeed,"

with the statement,

"In a free economy, the person willing to work hard will succeed more than anyone else."

These are not the same statement. And the second statement does not have to be true for the market to be "fair".

And you really shouldn't include ingenuity. That's the second time you've done that. Ingenuity has an intellectual component, so by the terms you've established it's one of those "unearned" and unmerited elements of success.
11.30.2008 10:52pm
Mahan Atma (mail):
"Ivy League admissions is actually an interesting window on this discussion. I used to think that it was unfair that legacy admissions played a large part in Ivy League enrollments. I also used to think that the tendency of Ivy League admissions officers to give credit to a certain sort of non-academic achievement in extracurricular activities that most students only participate in for credentialing purposes skewed the entire process. But then I realized what the Ivies were selecting for: the applicant who has family members who are already in important positions, or who can force himself to mindlessly jump through hoops for years in pursuit of a particular credential, is likely to be successful in the future, and thus is likely to reflect well on Harvard, contribute to its endowment, be in a position to assist future graduates, etc. They're selecting for social success, not test-taking success. And they should, when you get right down to it."


It's true that you can defeat my argument by taking the position that fairness is completely irrelevant, and all that matter is success by whatever means necessary.
11.30.2008 10:55pm
Brian S:
Saudi Arabians are some of the richest people in the world. Is that because they have some good grandparents?

They made the decision to stay there, while others left.

They made the decision to support a particular royal family, and that royal family conned the British into developing the oil resources there.

So if the Saudis don't deserve that oil wealth, who does? I think a case could be made for the British who developed the oil concessions there. But no case - none - could be made for the Somalis.
11.30.2008 10:56pm
Mahan Atma (mail):
"And you really shouldn't include ingenuity. That's the second time you've done that. Ingenuity has an intellectual component, so by the terms you've established it's one of those "unearned" and unmerited elements of success."


But I don't think ingenuity is unearned, as if people are born with it. Ingenuity is a form of risk-taking, and generally people should be rewarded for taking risks that succeed.
11.30.2008 10:59pm
Mahan Atma (mail):
"They made the decision to stay there, while others left."


Sure, and I suppose that had nothing to do with the fact that there was trillions of dollars of oil underneath the soil they happened to be born on.

But even in your view, all the Saudis had to do is stay put. If you're a Somali, you'd better hope you have the ability to move somewhere else.

Of course, moving to another country isn't free, is it.
11.30.2008 11:04pm
Brian S:
It's true that you can defeat my argument by taking the position that fairness is completely irrelevant, and all that matter is success by whatever means necessary.

Harvard does not exist for your benefit. Harvard owes no one admission. Harvard is absolutely and without limitation entitled to admit whoever they choose. If they choose to admit people who have a good chance of being successful socially, that helps maintain their position at the top of the academic pile. It won't benefit them one bit to design some sort of Confucian admissions process, if the result of doing so is to lose their position to Yale. You have this idea in your head that admission is some kind of sports contest, and it's not. And we can't rely on a concept of "fair" that calls on you to pass judgment over the decisions of third parties who are under no obligation to you to render their decisions in a way that you approve [like Harvard].

Sports has actually debilitated many peoples' idea of the "fair". In track and field, the point of racing is to see who wins under certain controlled conditions. That is not the point of the market at all. In track, if you take steroids to run faster, that's cheating and you don't deserve to win, because sportsmanship requires that all participants enter the race on an equal footing and race without enhancements. But that sort of sportsman's notion of fairness is artificial and has nothing to do with the market. The market should reward the "fastest" [however we want to analogize that in any particular field] and the guy who "takes steroids" isn't a cheater, they're an innovator.
11.30.2008 11:09pm
Brian S:
But I don't think ingenuity is unearned, as if people are born with it. Ingenuity is a form of risk-taking, and generally people should be rewarded for taking risks that succeed.

If you take stupid or pointless risks, you won't succeed. In order to reward people for risks that succeed, we have to reward the smart risk-takers and not the stupid ones. That brings us back to rewarding intelligence, which I was told above is rewarding the unearned.
11.30.2008 11:12pm
Mahan Atma (mail):
"The market should reward the "fastest" [however we want to analogize that in any particular field] and the guy who "takes steroids" isn't a cheater, they're an innovator."


How is that any different from a businessman who is more successful because he invents a new type of fraud, and evades detection as a result?

Like I said, you've certainly found one way around my argument, although I'm not sure you'll convince many people to join you.
11.30.2008 11:16pm
Mahan Atma (mail):
"That brings us back to rewarding intelligence, which I was told above is rewarding the unearned."


No, I'm taking the position that intelligence is the result of both hard work and good luck. I'm also not taking the position that the market works perfectly.
11.30.2008 11:18pm
einhverfr (mail) (www):

It is deterministic in that you will never pull out a white, green or purple marble. It's a sampling of two people, not the entire human race. It's why husbands get pissed off when their children have characteristics found in neither parent (gene markers, rare disorders, skin color, blood type, etc). Most non-Somalis would be quite upset if a Somalian popped out of their pregnant wife. Taking our money to give to the proverbial African welfare case is only slightly less offensive.


Ok. However, the question is how much genetics really plays a role in determining what opportunities around you can be taken advantage of. I think a lot of it (though by no means all) comes also down to a matter of early childhood development. Or is right-wing Christianity a genetically inherited trait too?

Finally, I am not entirely sure how deterministic specific chromosome clusters separating together is. That may well be random, but affected by other environmental factors. See the studies of womens' diets and sex ratio of children....

In the end, it doesn't really matter, though. There are enough people around a given problem that over time, someone will come up with a solution and take advantage of the opportunity that problem presented. Some of this is described as luck, and some of it is described as pluck.
11.30.2008 11:18pm
Dilan Esper (mail) (www):
To put it another way, there is no amount of luck that would allow a woman from Kenya to give birth to me and raise me the way my parents did. And there is no amount of government intervention that can correct this. No amount of food stamps or welfare or classroom computers will magically turn sub-Saharan Africans into hardworking, disciplined people with genius level IQs and stable nuclear families. It's genetic and cultural and there are no shortcuts.

The population of Somalia is highly unlikely to produce even one person as highly intelligent as Bill Gates.

You know, I really thought that electing a black president might help put an end to this sort of garbage. No such luck. There are still a bunch of white people who think they are superior to black people. I guess we can be thankful that they have to hide behind psuedonyms on the Internet when spewing their racist trash.
11.30.2008 11:48pm
Soronel Haetir (mail):
Mahan,

As for the Saudis who stayed, the relevant Saudis are the ones who were there /before/ the oil was discovered. My understanding is that before that time there really wasn't much to recommend the Arabian peninsula.

Of course by many measures such as number of children that survive to contribute to the next generation the typical American isn't in a much greater position than a random Somali. We have also built ourselves into a position where the vast majority of us are living on a much more tenuous support system than we might imagine. A major blow to the US food distribution system would throw many Americans into situations that they are ill-equiped to handle yet the average Somali would not find particularly abnormal.
11.30.2008 11:53pm
Jim at FSU (mail):
You're misquoting me. On the same page as my post. Very subtle, no one will ever catch that.

My take on the superiority or inferiority of Africa is that it doesn't have much at all to do with genetics and a great deal to do with culture. I base this belief on my experiences growing up around black children in NYC. Pervasive pressure to not perform academically or work hard. Nothing is sadder than listening to children being told that they are "behaving like slaves" or "behaving white" if they do what they are told, study hard or behave like they value their education.

On the other hand, Caribbean blacks who haven't been exposed to this poisonous culture tend to have a much healthier attitude towards school and work and the vast majority of people I've met from the islands have been hard-working and successful.

I only said that no amount of luck would let a Kenyan woman give birth to me is because white babies generally don't spring out of the vaginas of pregnant black women in Africa. Similarly, if a Somalian won this supposed birth lottery and had the good fortune to be born into my American family, my dad probably would have filed for divorce. Not because he hates black people or anything like that, but because it would indicate the presence of a lot of unexplained genetic material in the kid.

This isn't racist. It may hurt your feelings but that doesn't make it racist or untrue. Where's the prejudice?
12.1.2008 12:26am
Jim at FSU (mail):
Also, the guys that currently control the oil were the guys who controlled the sand back before it was "sand with oil under it." These guys spent the time and energy to keep control over an apparently worthless patch of sand and they were rewarded with vast wealth when it turned out to be undervalued.

Saudi Arabia will go back to being a backwater if the Saudis don't start to diversify out of oil before the wells start to dry up.

Is any of this fair? Do they deserve one outcome or another? Fantastic wealth or poor backwater? Since when is it for us to say? If the Saudis sell the oil at a price we find agreeable, why do we care about such abstract notions? Let them manage their own affairs to their own benefit or detriment.
12.1.2008 12:32am
eyesay:
A. Zarkov wrote: "The average IQ in sub-Saharan Africa is about 70...."

Please supply some credible citations to back up this astonishing assertion.

Even if this is some kind of a real statistic, one wonders how much of this result is attributable to the genetics of people living in sub-Saharan Africa, and how much is attributable to all other causes. My Bayesian "prior" is that the genetics explains just about none of it and that resources and culture explain just about all of it.
12.1.2008 1:38am
Mahan Atma (mail):
"My take on the superiority or inferiority of Africa is that it doesn't have much at all to do with genetics and a great deal to do with culture. I base this belief on my experiences growing up around black children in NYC."


???
12.1.2008 2:01am
Dilan Esper (mail) (www):
This isn't racist. It may hurt your feelings but that doesn't make it racist or untrue. Where's the prejudice?

The racist part is that you seem to think that your assumption that "African culture is different than Carribean culture" necessitates a conclusion that a Bill Gates equivalent, or someone with your aptitudes, couldn't be born to Somalian parents, and therefore you don't have to consider that people who achieve pecuniary success could have only got there because of the accident of their birth.

In other words, it is the conclusion that you need not have any empathy for your fellow, Somali human beings because they come from an inferior culture that you could definition never be born into on account of your superior aptitudes that is racist.
12.1.2008 2:23am
Jim at FSU (mail):
I think that Caribbean cultures tend to be more similar to the European societies that ran the colonies for a few centuries before turning them over during decolonization. Africa is fucked up on a completely different scale.

The racist part is that you seem to think that your assumption that "African culture is different than Carribean culture" necessitates a conclusion that a Bill Gates equivalent, or someone with your aptitudes, couldn't be born to Somalian parents,


That quote about Bill Gates and Somalia you are attributing to me I never actually said. The guy above edited the quote to add that. It is entirely his creation, not mine. You can read the original post he is quoting. It is right above you.


In other words, it is the conclusion that you need not have any empathy for your fellow, Somali human beings because they come from an inferior culture that you could definition never be born into on account of your superior aptitudes that is racist.


Their culture is not inferior. They just prefer to live a different way. They clearly prefer to have a life expectancy of 40 and die of gunshot wounds instead of old age. Who am I to say that my way is better?

I have no empathy for them only because I have no interest in them at all. Unless they a) become some sort of threat to my life or b) start selling some good or service I need, I see no reason to involve myself in their affairs.

If you care so much, put down your chai latte, go to Somalia and go help them. Posting on the internet is one of the most efficient means yet invented for not actually doing anything. My excuse is that I don't give a shit about them, what's yours?
12.1.2008 3:51am
A. Zarkov (mail):
eyesay:

"A. Zarkov wrote: "The average IQ in sub-Saharan Africa is about 70....

Please supply some credible citations to back up this astonishing assertion."


There are numerous studies of the average IQs in the countries of sub-Saharan Africa in both adults and children. The scores vary from the low 60s to the high 80s, with most being in the range 65-75. Scores have to be adjusted for the Flynn Effect. For a summary see Table 15-2 in the book Understanding Human History. The median (adjusted) of 15 countries is 67.

"My Bayesian "prior" is that the genetics explains just about none of it and that resources and culture explain just about all of it."

Your prior gets wiped out by the actual data. Try using a diffuse prior instead. While the extreme kind of malnutrition found in Africa can certainly lower IQ, there are numerous cross checks that verify that sub-Saharan IQ really are lower than Europe, Asia and America.

In any case I did not use 70 in my calculation. I used 85, which is the average IQ of blacks in the United States; a repeatable number which is backed up by a large amount of data taken over a period of 80 years.
12.1.2008 6:30am
A. Zarkov (mail):
Dilan Esper:

"You know, I really thought that electing a black president might help put an end to this sort of garbage. No such luck. There are still a bunch of white people who think they are superior to black people. I guess we can be thankful that they have to hide behind psuedonyms on the Internet when spewing their racist trash."

Again all you offer to the discussion is insults. If you think I made a mistake in my calculation, then correct me. If you think the data wrong, then tell us what the correct data is. A IQ of 170 is extremely rare. In a country with an average IQ of 100, and a population of 300 million we would get only 429 people with IQs that high or higher using a strictly Gaussian model. If I put in my correction for non-zero kurtosis, the number jumps to 2,906 (lambda4= .3). Still very small. Why would you expect a country with only 10 million people and an average IQ of 85 (which is an overestimate) to produce many with IQs greater than 170?

Frankly I think our hosts should consider banning you from further comments as you can't seem to control yourself.
12.1.2008 6:49am
Fub:
Sometimes fundamental truths of the universe are right before everyone's eyes, awaiting discovery while countless generations disregard them. I think one such fundamental truth at least as important as Fudd's First Law of Opposition has been revealed in this thread, by Jim at FSU at 12.1.2008 3:51am:
Posting on the internet is one of the most efficient means yet invented for not actually doing anything.
12.1.2008 11:42am
Mahan Atma (mail):
"There are numerous studies of the average IQs in the countries of sub-Saharan Africa in both adults and children. The scores vary from the low 60s to the high 80s, with most being in the range 65-75. Scores have to be adjusted for the Flynn Effect. For a summary see Table 15-2 in the book Understanding Human History. The median (adjusted) of 15 countries is 67."


I checked out your "source". Somalia isn't even included in that table. And most of those numbers are very old, dating back to the 60s, or in three cases, 1929, 1935 and 1952. The most recent number (for Equatorial Guinea) was based on a sample size of 59.

The book is a pretty questionable source itself. It's authored by a single guy who's an astrophysicist, not a social scientist.
12.1.2008 11:48am
Mahan Atma (mail):
"They clearly prefer to have a life expectancy of 40 and die of gunshot wounds instead of old age."


Wow.

I keep pointing this out, but you guys keep ignoring it. Probably about a third of Somalis (3 million or so) are under the age of 10. What do you say to them? Is it their fault that they live in those conditions?

Do you think they "clearly prefer" living in those conditions?
12.1.2008 11:51am
Dilan Esper (mail) (www):
Again all you offer to the discussion is insults. If you think I made a mistake in my calculation, then correct me.

Zarkov, you conclude that because AVERAGE IQ's of Somalis are allegedly very low (a fact that, if it is even true, could itself be a result of growing up in a war-torn country rather than deficiencies in aptitude), it is impossible that there could be someone as brilliant as Bill Gates or A Zarkov born in Somalia to Somali parents.

Of course, even if your offensive conclusion that the Somalis are a race of less-smart people were correct, that still wouldn't mean that there might not be very smart people within the genetic variation of the population.

But it really isn't worth arguing with you about this. You aren't interested in discussing the obvious luck involved in becoming successful-- you are interested in finding a way to express "taboo" views that the segregationists were right and that blacks really are inferior. There's no reason to respond to that with argument at all-- calling you a racist suffices, it seems to me.
12.1.2008 12:07pm
Dilan Esper (mail) (www):
Their culture is not inferior. They just prefer to live a different way. They clearly prefer to have a life expectancy of 40 and die of gunshot wounds instead of old age. Who am I to say that my way is better? I have no empathy for them only because I have no interest in them at all.

You know, I suspect your European ancestors include some people who suffered immensely because they were unlucky enough to be born in a war zone. And I am sure that they would be more than disappointed-- appalled really-- that one of their descendants is claiming that people who are born in war zones choose to die young and therefore there's no reason to be concerned with them.

Slaughter, poverty, famine and and all the rest of Somalia's problems are in no way unique to Africa, you know.
12.1.2008 12:10pm
A. Zarkov (mail):
Mahan Atma:


"I checked out your "source". Somalia isn't even included in that table. And most of those numbers are very old, dating back to the 60s, or in three cases, 1929, 1935 and 1952."


Do you think Somalia is somehow different than the rest of sub-Saharan Africa? As for the dates and sample sizes-- you're cherry picking. We have lots of recent studies--

Boivin &Giordani 1993 Zaire
Boivin et al 1995 Zaire
Giordani 1996 Zaire
Fernandez-Ballesteros et al 1997
Costenbader &Ngari Kenya 2000
Daley et al Kenya 2004
Holding et al 2004
Jinabhai et al South Africa 2004
Sternberg et al Tanzania 2002

To name but of few of many. None of these reports contradict the older data.

As for sample sizes, again you cherry pick, and it looks like you are deliberately trying to mislead the readers.

For example:

Glewwe &Jacoby 1992 Ghana, N= 1,693
Costenbader &Ngari Kenya 2000, N= 1,222
Owen 1992 South Africa, N= 1,096
Klingelhofer 1967, Tanzania N= 2,959
Heyneman &Jamison Uganda, 1980, N= 2,019

I suppose I need not remind you that the standard error varies as the square root of the sample size.

So where is your data that contradicts any of the above studies?

"The book is a pretty questionable source itself. It's authored by a single guy who's an astrophysicist, not a social scientist."


Are you telling me that an astrophysicist can't cite references or take medians? As for being a "social scientist,"I think you mean psychometrician. But Hart didn't design the tests, he reported the results. Actually being an astrophysicist is an excellent credential. They deal with observational data as opposed to designed experiments and are particularly good at inference.

What's questionable about the book? You provide us with few facts, mostly smears and innuendo.
12.1.2008 12:26pm
Soronel Haetir (mail):
Mahan,

Is it the fault of those 1 million children? No, but if we are going to use comfort as the measure of success then the generations that preceeded those children have not succeeded to the degree associated with the European west. By other measures those prior generations may have been wildly successful.

I do not see this conversation as describing a competition between myself and current Somalis, rather I see it as describing the competition between all the prior generations of humanity.

I'm not sure how valid the idea is, but the US is populated by people whose forebears left everything behind to start over. It could be argued that sub-Saharan Africa is the population whose parents chose to stay every time they had an opportunity to leave, going back to the dawn of mankind.
12.1.2008 12:35pm
Mahan Atma (mail):
"As for the dates and sample sizes-- you're cherry picking."


No, I clearly said "most", and then stated the three oldest dates. The list you presented is itself cherry-picked, of course.

"I suppose I need not remind you that the standard error varies as the square root of the sample size."


I suppose I need not remind you that this is only true for a simple random sample. Please show me where the table indicates that these samples are taken by a simple random sample.
12.1.2008 12:41pm
Mahan Atma (mail):
"As for being a "social scientist,"I think you mean psychometrician."


A psychometrician is a type of social scientist.

But I'm impugning the book as a whole, not just his use of IQ statistics.
12.1.2008 12:42pm
eyesay:
Dear A. Zarkov:

Normally, when researchers come up with new theories, such as the equation E=mc², they write a paper with evidence, calculations, and analysis of data, and submit the work to a peer-reviewed journal, where others in the same field read the paper, check the math, examine the data, and consider the inferences. If things check out, the paper is published, which makes it broadly available so that more experts can review the work and provide supporting or contradicting evidence.

Instead, your man Hart wrote his book on his own, without submitting his research for peer review. Rightly or wrongly, the world has largely ignored his book; as far as I can tell it has never been reviewed by any serious mainstream publication or scientific journal.

After anthropologists, sociologists, economists, psychologists, or international development experts consider Hart's book, I will be willing to do so as well, but in the meantime, I don't have time to consider an book by someone with no credentials in his field of discourse, whose work was neither submitted for nor received any peer review.

Now, if you have some credible (scientific, peer-reviewed) source supporting your astonishing claim that "The average IQ in sub-Saharan Africa is about 70," please supply it.

Sincerely,

eyesay
12.1.2008 12:46pm
A. Zarkov (mail):
"Zarkov, you conclude that because AVERAGE IQ's of Somalis are allegedly very low (a fact that, if it is even true, could itself be a result of growing up in a war-torn country rather than deficiencies in aptitude), it is impossible that there could be someone as brilliant as Bill Gates or A Zarkov born in Somalia to Somali parents."

I think you need to read more carefully. First off, I didn't even use the typical sub-Saharan IQ of 70, I used the value of 85 for American blacks in my calculation. American blacks don't live in a war torn country. Had I used the more realistic value 70, the results would have much sharper. Is it your position that the average IQ in sub-Saharan Africa is actually higher than 85?

"You aren't interested in discussing the obvious luck involved in becoming successful--"


I am interested, and I did discuss it, both here, and on the prior thread about Rawls' theory of social justice.

Then I didn't say "impossible." I said "highly unlikely." My statement was one of probability, not certainty. I don't think you really understand how rapidly the Gaussian distribution falls off, and thus how rare an IQ of 170 is anywhere. It's very hard for any small country to produce a large number of people with super high IQs.

"Of course, even if your offensive conclusion that the Somalis are a race of less-smart people were correct, that still wouldn't mean that there might not be very smart people within the genetic variation of the population."

The Somalis are not a race, they are a country. And I agree that they might be "very smart people within the genetic variation of the population," but it's very unlikely.

You keep accusing me of value judgments, when I have done no such thing. I never said the Somalis were bad people, or inferior, I simply said that small country is unlikely to produce someone with an IQ as high as Bill Gates. You couldn't say that for giant countries like India and China.
12.1.2008 12:53pm
Mahan Atma (mail):
"First off, I didn't even use the typical sub-Saharan IQ of 70, I used the value of 85 for American blacks in my calculation."


Why did you substitute American blacks for Somalis?
12.1.2008 1:00pm
A. Zarkov (mail):
eyesay:

Hart's book as a whole is not the issue. It's simply a pointer to the literature.

"Now, if you have some credible (scientific, peer-reviewed) source supporting your astonishing claim that "The average IQ in sub-Saharan Africa is about 70," please supply it."

The sources previously cited appear in journals such as the Journal of Pediatric Psychology and Neuropsychology. Again where is your contrary data? Obviously you have none.
12.1.2008 1:06pm
A. Zarkov (mail):
Mahan Atma:


"Why did you substitute American blacks for Somalis?"


Because they have an average IQ that's about a standard deviation higher than found in sub-Saharan Africa. It's called a bounding calculation. If the conclusion is true for 85 then it's even stronger for 70. Moreover, American blacks are genetically closer to the residents of Somalia then say Korea.
12.1.2008 1:13pm
Mahan Atma (mail):
"The sources previously cited appear in journals such as the Journal of Pediatric Psychology and Neuropsychology."


But none of them are for Somalia.
12.1.2008 1:16pm
A. Zarkov (mail):
"No, I clearly said "most", and then stated the three oldest dates. The list you presented is itself cherry-picked, of course."

Most of the dates are not very old. Moreover, what the problem with old data? Was there a recent breakthrough in the design of tests that makes all old data invalid?
12.1.2008 1:18pm
A. Zarkov (mail):
"But none of them are for Somalia."


I think you're trying to goad me to tell you to "drop dead," but I won't. Live long and prosper.
12.1.2008 1:21pm
Mahan Atma (mail):
"Because they have an average IQ that's about a standard deviation higher than found in sub-Saharan Africa. It's called a bounding calculation. If the conclusion is true for 85 then it's even stronger for 70.


Why didn't you just say, "Let's add a standard deviation".

BTW, I get a kick out of all the scientific technicalities you get into, Edgeworth expansion, bounding calculation, etc.

Dude, the data aren't even from Somalia. For that matter, you haven't even shown us that it was gathered via random samples. (And please tell me how you can calculated a standard error in that case.)

I know enough about real-world statistics to know that most of the numbers in that table were probably not gathered via random samples (especially when you have data going back to 1929, 1935, 1952, etc).
12.1.2008 1:22pm
ruralcounsel (mail):
This has been an interesting set of posts ...

Both sides make some good points. I can't help thinking that the "it's all pluck and effort" side is being deliberately obtuse when it comes to what constitutes "luck". Almost a mite defensive, in fact. Can you say "in denial"? To the point of taking individual credit for ones genetics? Sheer hubris.

It seems obvious to me that it is a chaotic amalgam of both luck and perseverence. If it isn't something you took a conscious risk or made an informed decision about ... it's mostly luck. And that isn't a one time deal, either. One good decision often leads to opportunities for another. Just like one bad decision can lead to some really bad choices. So later decisions and successes actually bear a heavy weighting from earlier ones, which are decidedly more likely to be due to luck (circumstances or someone else's decision).

I benefit heavily from my ancestors decision to leave Scotland and come to America. That, to me, is luck. That my parents were middle class, educated, that my father survived the War in the Pacific, that they valued book smarts ... all very lucky for me.

This isn't a question about what does society "owe" individuals. You don't owe anyone anything because you were lucky, any more than you owe something because you worked hard.

But that doesn't mean that the bottom rungs of the success ladder are built the same as the top rungs ... opportunities differ, environment matters. And it isn't even always a question of higher and lower rungs ... anybody think all those bright successful people working in the World Trade Towers were lucky? Or was that a reward for all that hard work?

Those that claim to be successful are often the worst at looking back and seeing how much of their success was due to luck versus hard work and good decisions. They somehow think that it diminishes their effort. Which strikes me as a form of psychological insecurity. (But hey, maybe that provides a competitive advantage ... cockiness and smugness might make one more prone to risk-taking behavior!)

The same behaviors that ultimately rewarded the Pilgrims and the colonists at Jamestown in coming to a rich new world also were responsible for what brought the colonists of the Lost Colony, and the unknown number of sailing ships that never made it across the Atlantic. Don't tell me it was just because they were smart.
12.1.2008 1:41pm
eyesay:
A. Zarkov wrote, "what the problem [sic] with old data? Was there a recent breakthrough in the design of tests that makes all old data invalid?"

Among the problems with old IQ data is that there has been a secular increase in IQ test results worldwide of approximately 3 points per decade, with the greater rises among those in the lower half.

Other problems:

A. The very notion of "Intelligence Quotient" implies that intelligence is some particular thing subject to measurement, like temperature, mass, or the money in my checking account. But, whatever intelligence is, it is not one unique thing. An individual human being has an ability for spatial reasoning, an ability for memorizing poetry, an ability for coming up with le mot juste, an ability to interpret facial expressions, an ability to see through stupid arguments posted on The Volokh Conspiracy, an ability to learn foreign languages, musical talent, an ability to know when to get expert help, and many more abilities. Some intelligence components are not measured at all by so-called intelligence tests. Intelligence is multi-dimensional, and even if all of its dimensions could be measured, there is no unique well-defined way to aggregate IQ components into one overall measurement.

2. Intelligence tests are created by people in one society based on what is important to them. If someone from sub-Saharan Africa were to devise an intelligence test, it might include recognizing the sounds of migrating herds of various types of animals, knowing how to scare away carnivorous cats, or how to feed a family for a day with less than a dollar's worth of food. I don't know how well I would do on a Somalian IQ test.
12.1.2008 1:44pm
ruralcounsel (mail):
BTW, I seem to be missing the point about Somalia and IQ. What is there about prenatal diet and healthcare and pediatric health and nutrition that we think causes no impact on these imperfect measurements?

A population surviving in a degraded culture teetering on the edge of civil function, and we want to make genetic comparisons against the wealthiest, best fed, arguably most peacefully democratic culture the planet has seen? Why don't we just make the comparison with the population of London during one of the plagues? Genghis Khan's world tour?

The benefits of our own current culture are not ours to claim as individuals. Nor are they necessarily indicators of long term trends.

All of our cultures have had barbaric episodes (and probably will have in the future too). We seem to have a lot of "success stories" taking credit for the luck of whose shoulders they are standing on.
12.1.2008 1:55pm
Soronel Haetir (mail):
ruralcounsel,

Those benefits are the gift of prior generations to us. Is inheritance now such a foul concept that we should be unwilling to claim the gifts our ancestors toiled so hard to deliver to us?
12.1.2008 2:53pm
Curious Passerby (mail):
What is the whole point about Somalia. If one gives in and says yes I am luckier than them, what comes next? Are we supposed to be guilty about it and give them our wealth?

Unfortunately for Leftists human society works on a Darwinian model. If one were able to forcefully make everyone equal, human society would die. Only because someone with luck and pluck can become Bill gates, and someone in the ghetto will die during a drug deal, will most members of society put out their most efforts, providing the most prosperity for all.

Note that periods of the most income equality were the same ones of the most human progress. Like a school of fish where the outer ones must get eaten so the inner ones can survive, some humans must be the losers and some the winners so that all of society advances. As Jimmy Carter said, "Life isn't fair."
12.1.2008 3:10pm
Andrew J. Lazarus (mail):
I would suggest reading N. N. Taleb on how many financial advisors think they are good, when they have merely been lucky in a generally rising market. Few of them look good since October.

When you actually dig up a Horatio Alger story as written by Alger, it turns out that there's a lot more than pluck involved. There's usually a distant rich relative returning, or a case of mistaken identity, or redress of some long-past wrong. Without that luck, it's more like Andersen's hard-working Little Match Girl. (She dies.)
12.1.2008 4:01pm
eyesay:
Curious Passerby wrote "Only because someone with luck and pluck can become Bill gates, and someone in the ghetto will die during a drug deal, will most members of society put out their most efforts, providing the most prosperity for all."

Huh? Are you seriously suggesting that deaths resulting from ghetto-based drug deals are required in order for most members of society to put out their maximum efforts? What is your evidence for such a theory?

Curious Passerby continued "Note that periods of the most income equality were the same ones of the most human progress."

I don't know what this is supposed to mean. Humans have been on earth for at least hundreds of thousands of years, and most of that time is prehistoric, so I don't know what is your universe of discourse. For the past 5,000 years, there has been "human progress" as we have invented more and more useful things, learned what plants, animals, and fungi are poisonous, and generally increased our understanding of physics, chemistry, biology, and other sciences. Even in the Europe's dark ages following the fall of Rome, there was human progress elsewhere. So, what overall time period is your universe of discourse, and what are your intervals of high and low equality?

Curious Passerby continued "some humans must be the losers and some the winners so that all of society advances."

What do you mean by "losers," gentle sir or madam? A generation ago, smallpox was eradicated, and I expect that polio will be eradicated within the next few years. Humanity has the capacity to eradicate poverty. Even Bangladesh is eradicating poverty; Bangladesh's poverty rate is declining by more than two percentage points each year and is on track to reach zero before 2030. Sure, we human's can't all come out on top, but we don't need deaths from drug deals, we don't need ghettos, we don't need illiteracy or malnutrition, and we don't need smug people who think that their affluence is because they are "better" than the people of Somalia.
12.1.2008 4:27pm
ruralcounsel (mail):
Soronel Haetir wrote:

Those benefits are the gift of prior generations to us. Is inheritance now such a foul concept that we should be unwilling to claim the gifts our ancestors toiled so hard to deliver to us?


Gifts. Yes, exactly. And you don't get to take personal credit for gifts.

I'd say you are claiming (and receiving) the benefit of them. I just don't think you should claim the CREDIT for them. Those inheritances aren't because of any sweat off YOUR back. Not because of any of YOUR bright ideas.

The issue isn't about what you can take the benefit of, it's about what you can take individual credit for. Take the benefit of everything that comes your way. Great! Inherit away. But don't presume that it's all because you're such a hardworking smart stiff.

Then maybe you won't be so predisposed to look down your noses at those less well situated than yourself, and will instead think that "there, but for the grace of God/luck of the Irish/ pick your favorite, go I!"
12.1.2008 6:50pm
ruralcounsel (mail):
Curious Passerby wrote:

What is the whole point about Somalia. If one gives in and says yes I am luckier than them, what comes next? Are we supposed to be guilty about it and give them our wealth?


Well, maybe that's what some here are thinking, but that is a step beyond what I understood the book to be about. I thought it was about to what factors do we attribute "success". Not about what duty, if any, do the successful owe the unsuccessful. But I haven't read it.

If we better understand what contributes to success, we're better able to decide if what we do as a society or as individuals has any real impact or not on making people successful. Frankly, since so much of it is luck mixed with stubborness and risk-taking and work ethic and intelligence, I don't think any social policy can really have much of an effect on raising whole classes of people into being "successful". We might be able to shift who becomes successful, but not any statistically significant fraction of society. Redistribute success, but not create more of it.

Which would argue against trying to lift the unsuccessful. Nature seems to be pretty good at distributing it around the globe, but the cyclic frequncy is pretty low. Perhaps there is only so much success to go around. Is it a zero-sum game?
12.1.2008 7:07pm
Newman Phillips:
ruralcousel intones:

Gifts. Yes, exactly. And you don't get to take personal credit for gifts.

I'd say you are claiming (and receiving) the benefit of them. I just don't think you should claim the CREDIT for them. Those inheritances aren't because of any sweat off YOUR back. Not because of any of YOUR bright ideas.

The issue isn't about what you can take the benefit of, it's about what you can take individual credit for. Take the benefit of everything that comes your way. Great! Inherit away. But don't presume that it's all because you're such a hardworking smart stiff.


I'm with you. Arabs should take no credit for their oil wealth, nor should Indians for their gaming wealth, nor should African-Americans for their wealth from throwing a ball, dancing, and singing, nor should lottery winners for having their number come up.

Now we're getting someplace.
12.1.2008 7:50pm
Mahan Atma (mail):
"nor should African-Americans for their wealth from throwing a ball, dancing, and singing,"


This thread is awesome.
12.1.2008 8:34pm
Newman Phillips:
"nor should African-Americans for their wealth from throwing a ball, dancing, and singing,"


This thread is awesome.


Dude, dude: we got E. Stanley O'Neill, who ruined Merrill Lynch, we got Richard Parsons, who failed to be anything but a placeholder at Time Warner, and we got:

-Basketball and football players

-Michael Jackson and Beyonce

-Many millionaire rap singers and break dancers

OK, I apologize. I forgot talkers like Oprah and Montel.

If you want to talk about any unsung geniuses, please hold forth.

BTW, I feel that economists Tom Sowell and Walters Williams have abilities way beyond most whites.

Feel better now?
12.1.2008 9:26pm
A. Zarkov (mail):
eyesay:

"Among the problems with old IQ data is that there has been a secular increase in IQ test results worldwide of approximately 3 points per decade, with the greater rises among those in the lower half."


That's called the "Flynn effect," and the data has been adjusted for that. Moreover at least in the US the Flynn effect has been approximately the same for both blacks and whites, and the gap has remained about constant at about one standard deviation for the last 80 years.

"Intelligence is multi-dimensional, and even if all of its dimensions could be measured, there is no uniquewell-defined way to aggregate IQ components into one overall measurement."

Absolutely not. That canard has been put to rest long ago. There is a single kind of intelligence called "the g factor." If you give subjects many different cognitive tests , they are all positively correlated and the number of linearly independent columns in the correlation matrix is 1, indicating the factor space is one-dimensional. This result has been replicated many times.

"Intelligence tests are created by people in one society based on what is important to them."

Another canard also put to rest. People who score high on strongly g-loaded tests are good at every kind of task, including the ones valuable in primitive societies. Tests like Raven's progressive matrices are free of cultural bias. Reaction time tests are another another example of an unbiased test.

Everyone of your objections has been covered in detail and rebutted in Jensen's book, The g-factor.
12.1.2008 9:42pm
ruralcounsel (mail):
Newman Phillips:

Arabs should take no credit for their oil wealth, nor should Indians for their gaming wealth, nor should African-Americans for their wealth from throwing a ball, dancing, and singing, nor should lottery winners for having their number come up.


Arabs and oil wealth ... agreed. Pure chance, since nobody knew enough petroleum geology to know beforehand.

Indians for gaming wealth? A loophole confluence of federal tribal law trumping state law, combined with a dash of entreprenurial spirit and knowing how to exploit human weaknesses? Nah, can't go with that one. More than just luck. They had some luck, and managed to capitalize on it.

African-Americans and ... what the heck? Physical prowess is too much a combination of genetics and practice to know one way or the other. I doubt if you can be a successful professional athelete without good genetics or driving ambition. So again, a wash. Dancing and singing ... geezum, I have no idea. Is that success based on genetics or practice or both? Either way, most personal talents involve some sort of ambition, practice, and natural skill ... no? A tossup.

Lottery winners should take very little credit for winning. What little they should take is for the minimal threshold of buying a ticket. After that, they were just lucky. That's the whole point of luck ... you don't need to take credit for it, it just happened. Doesn't mean you don't reap the benefits of that luck, just that it doesn't say anything special about you or your abilities. The lottery winner used no more skill or intelligence than the lottery loser; the difference was luck. So the lottery winner has no reason to feel superior to anyone else, just luckier.
12.1.2008 9:50pm
Soronel Haetir (mail):
My point about inheritance is not that the current generation can take credit for being in a position to take advantage of opportunities. Prior generations however as a social whole can. Society may not be a project where individual credit/blame is apportioned (except in the most extreme cases), but that does not mean that the members don't each individually contribute or retard achievment.
12.1.2008 11:17pm
Mahan Atma (mail):
"There is a single kind of intelligence called "the g factor." If you give subjects many different cognitive tests , they are all positively correlated and the number of linearly independent columns in the correlation matrix is 1, indicating the factor space is one-dimensional. This result has been replicated many times."


Name a single source for which that is true (a perfect rank one correlation matrix).
12.1.2008 11:27pm
eyesay:
12.2.2008 1:48am
A. Zarkov (mail):
"Name a single source for which that is true (a perfect rank one correlation matrix)."

The sample correlation matrix won't have rank 1, but actual correlation can have a statistical rank of 1 as determined from tests on the values of the eigenvalues of the sample matrix. This is factor analysis. For examples see Jensens book.
12.2.2008 6:01am
A. Zarkov (mail):
"g debunked"

One article doesn't debunk a solid and long standing body of research. One can always find some fringe paper somewhere with a google search. Nevertheless I'm always open to new ideas and results, but I'm not going to pay to see the details.
12.2.2008 6:07am
ruralcounsel (mail):
Soronel Haetir wrote:

Prior generations however as a social whole can.

What the heck does that mean? Most prior generations are ancient dust. How are you going to allocate credit for increasing inherited advantages due to luck versus effort as it moves from generation to generation? They become so inextricably intertwined that it's a pointless exercise. Nature or nurture. genetic or environment. As if they can really be segregated.

And frankly, I'd hope my ancestors would reject being thought of as part of some "social whole" ... I doubt they want to be associated with slavery, witch burning, or the Spanish Inquisition. They left Scotland/Ireland presumably because they didn't want to be part of those societies anymore.

What is so friggin' hard about just taking credit for the actual accomplishments you perform with the resources you have. With a nod to all the luck you had in having those resources and the tools to use them. Some of these comments sound like a throwback to divine right to rule or manifest destiny horse manure. They sounded so insulted that the source of their "success" was being analyzed, and that some of it might actually be traced to rather random chance.

It's not like it impacts anything tangible ... it's just a question of attitude, thankfulness, and acknowledgment that it isn't all about YOU.

And realize that someone else, given the same opportunties and resources, may have been able to just as well or better ... but they weren't, so they didn't, so you should make the most of what you have.

Nothing says you can't influence your odds, but you shouldn't blind yourself to the fact that at the core of it all, life is a gambling game. That you are here at all is merely a statement that your genetic line still has some chips in the game.
12.2.2008 9:53am
Elliot123 (mail):
All high school grads have the military as an opportunity. Those who enter then have lots of money for college when they are discharged. Those who use that money to go to college can then go to law school. Those who go to law school can have nice careers as lawyers.

So, is luck the reason one guy from a given HS class joins the army and eventually becomes a lawyer, and another a convenience store clerk?
12.3.2008 8:38pm
ruralcounsel (mail):
Elliot123:

It's luck that puts both of those people in the US, able to obtain that high school dipploma, healthy and well fed enough to be fit for military service.

But if we're going to make up facts ... how about that lawyer's "nice career" goes down the tubes when the economy falters (you been watching the BigLaw headcount reductions lately?) Then the convenience store clerk buying a winning lotto ticket, ...

Look, nobody said that your fate is predetermined, that effort doesn't matter ... but choices have consequences, and often the outcome of those choices isn't all that obvious at the time.

Maybe that guy who didn't join the military didn't just clerk at the 7-11 ... maybe he eventually bought a 7-11, and then another, and another, ...and before you know it, he was a successful businessperson. Maybe the guy who signed up was lucky we didn't have a major war during his tour and get himself killed.

So maybe the choice of joining the military wasn't the key thing? Or could have turned out really badly. There are many paths to success, and many detours. You wouldn't know a priori what was the right choice.
12.5.2008 11:21am
ruralcounsel (mail):
Maybe that's the key point here.

Lots of folks want to look back, and with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight and a personal appreciation for all the effort and work they've put themselves through, just can't handle thinking that it was just luck.

And of course, they're right. It wasn't "just" luck. But there was a lot of luck blended in there, and no good way to separate it out. How would your life have differed if you'd gone to a different school, married someone else, taken a different flight, not noticed those brake lights in the nick of time, gotten a different project or had a different boss at that first job? Now multiply those possibilities times the life of every direct ancestor ... heck, if your ancestry was different, would you even be "you"? If your parents hadn't married each other, would "you" even exist? If your birth order was different? Or take it one step further ... you are the result of one egg and one out of how many billion sperm? Seems like who you are is the result of a lot of random chance.

Let alone the conscious decisions that you make that are pretty arbitrary, or whose outcome is uncertain.

Hard work and ability can take you far, but it isn't the whole story. It's just the only part you have any control over. And even with ability, that is arguable. Some ability is natural, some is learned ... and is the ability to learn natural or learned?
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