Is Obama a Sure Thing?:

He's certainly the favorite, but I think it's odd that so many commentators seem to think the race is over. In 2000, with the same number of days to go in the presidential contest, four polls were published, giving George Bush a 4.5% lead over Al Gore. As we know, Gore wound up winning the popular vote, and came within a few hundred votes in Florida of winning the presidency. Over at, the two polls published so far today give Obama a 4.5% lead on average, and the average of all recent polls gives him a 5% lead.

Again, Obama is obviously the favorite. But the Democrats would be wise to hold off on all the talk of who is going to be in Obama's cabinet, the special session they will hold in Congress in November to start working on the Obama agenda, etc., and focus on winning the election.