Who Will the Next Bailout Czar Be?

Yesterday's Detroit Free Press and today's Raleigh News & Observer ran an op-ed by Mitu Gulati and me on the desirability of Obama and McCain telling us who they would choose to be their Secretary of the Treasury. This is closely related to our article on presidential candidates naming their key people in advance of the election, which Eugene and I blogged about in July. Anyway, here is the op-ed:

In TV’s “The West Wing,” President Jed Bartlet was a Nobel Prize-winning economist.

In real life, our presidential candidates are not experts in economic principles. So when they keep getting asked what exactly they would do to manage the biggest financial meltdown since the Great Depression, their responses are fairly vague.

The result is that voters cannot determine how well each candidate would chart a desirable course through this crisis. (Different groups will define “desirable” differently, putting all the more emphasis on knowing exactly how each new administration will make regulatory policy.)

The identity of key appointees — in particular, the Secretary of the Treasury — is enormously important. Congress appears to be on the verge of granting stunningly broad powers to the Treasury Secretary, authority that his predecessors never dreamed of. News outlets are already speculating about who the next Treasury secretary will be, but why should we have to rely on speculation?

The candidates should tell us now whom they plan to pick. And while they’re at it, identifying their prospective chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers would also help.

If we had those names, then we might be able to obtain some valuable information. Maybe Barack Obama would announce, for example, that he would choose to bring Robert Rubin and Larry Summers (President Clinton’s team) back to Washington. If he told us that, we could look to see how Rubin-Summers dealt with the Asian crisis of the late 1990s, which involved decisions about bailouts and systemic risk too.

In John McCain’s case, what if he told us that he planned to tap John Taylor, the former undersecretary of Treasury who dealt with the effects of the Argentine crisis some eight years ago? Again, bailouts were contemplated then and so were policies to deal with the risk of financial contagion. Or maybe McCain would pick Carly Fiorina, who dealt with difficulties of a different sort at Hewlett-Packard?

The point is if we have concrete names, we can make informed decisions about which of these candidates would do a better job with the economy.

None of this is going to be as much fun as talking about Bristol Palin’s pregnancy or her high school boyfriend’s Facebook page. But while gossip is fun, many of us are concerned about what is happening in the economy. And at least some of us would give our vote to the candidate who picked the best secretary of Treasury.

We realize that the candidates themselves might not want to tip their hands. Candidates may prefer to be vague in their pronouncements. And being able to promise the prospect of a high-level cabinet position to a variety of people is a good way to keep them all working hard during the pre-election process. So what can we do to induce such revelation?

We should simply ask, and when given vague answers, we should push. In the current era where candidates engage in online discussions with voters and answer questions sent via YouTube videos, maybe we can ask them this question enough times so that failing to answer becomes a problem. Plus, if one answers, that might give him an advantage — the first mover will be perceived as more innovative.

dlemessurier (mail):
A REALLY stupid idea. Fun for political junkies and second guessers perhaps, but please tell me how they could possibly vet (including obligatory FBI checks which can take weeks) the myriad number of candidates for these positions then make a decision. And what if between "revelation" and inauguration there is a change of mind? The worst part of this idea is that it makes appointments political footballs and subject to the same MSM "gotcha journalism" as is the actual presidential campaign. Actually, I hope Obama does it. Think of the fun the conservative press (pardon the oxymoron) would have raking the candidate over the coals!
9.26.2008 5:05pm
Sagar (mail):
If they told us the names prior to the polls, then will the Senate "have to" confirm the treasury secretary since the voters gave a "mandate" to the candidate?

If not, what is the benefit to the candidate?
9.26.2008 5:11pm
PLR:
I don't think a smart person would put Larry Summers' name out there before the election.
9.26.2008 5:25pm
EIDE_Interface (mail):
Maybe the real answer is the USA is too big to govern anymore and should be broken up into 8-9 different countries.
9.26.2008 5:43pm
Cornellian (mail):
Might I humbly suggest yours truly as the next candidate for federal assistance?

To paraphrase a cinematic classic, "Dude, Where's My Bailout?"
9.26.2008 5:47pm
The plan (mail) (www):
Here's a perhaps better idea: have a group of experts from *across the spectrum* (i.e., LewRockwell/RonPaul to past Nader) quiz the candidates' advisors on how they'd fix the problem. See my name's link for a general proposal for debates along those lines. One of those could be put on for $10,000 or less, and I'm sure those at this site could make it happen before November if they wanted, although there probably isn't enough time to do it for the bailout.
9.26.2008 5:51pm
Yankee Southerner (mail) (www):
'I hope we are witnessing the end of the "creative capitalism" as represented byt the GSE's,' Professor Summers wrote recently. I'd like to see McCain appoint him Treasury secretary. McCain did say he would have a bipartisan administration. What I don't understand in this matter is what Bernanke needs. It was the founder of the Economist who said that you loan at high rates on thin collateral in a panic. Why can't he, the Central Bank, just do that? Furthermore Friedman's argument in 'The Cause of the Great Depression' was that the money supply contracted. I don't see where this translates into having to defend money market mutual funds from Lehman Brothers collapse. People can take their money basically out of a pool of short term instruments and put the residual into FDIC insured accounts. I'm sure WaMu would have appreciated the business.
9.26.2008 5:52pm
methodact:
Since a czar's authority is absolute, ie, unchecked and uncontrolled by any law, institution, constitutional device, or coordinate body; iow, without restriction and without any checks and balances of any kind, just how many czars do you think America ought to have? Or are you, just like so many of the other posts on this sie, simply posturing with rhetoric?
9.26.2008 5:57pm
Anderson (mail):
Obviously, the answer is: Sarah Palin.
9.26.2008 6:26pm
first history:
Phil Gramm
9.26.2008 7:38pm
Devin McCullen:
Doesn't everybody know this by now? They can't do it because it's illegal.
9.26.2008 7:47pm
frankcross (mail):
Appealing, but a little naive I think. I doubt the names would alter many votes. And if they did, the candidates would do it voluntarily. If they thought that they could get votes by doing so.

And I suspect vetting will be a little worse if conducted during a campaign.
9.26.2008 8:12pm
Patrick22 (mail):
This is something that crops up once a week on a blog somewhere. Without fail, it is retracted as it is claimed to be illegal to name cabinet members prior to election. Now I wonder if that is true, because it would look bad if someone wrote a post asking someone to do something illegal on a legal blog. ;-)
9.26.2008 8:35pm
Bob from Ohio (mail):
Just because this idea got published in newspaper does not improve it.
9.26.2008 9:14pm
Michael B (mail):
A ten minute youTube video that hi-lights the most pivotal aspects of the history and what occurred. Supports its argument with references, google searches, specific web site documentation, other documentation as well. But no one's suppose to notice; to the contrary and decidedly so.
9.26.2008 9:30pm
David M. Nieporent (www):
Since a czar's authority is absolute, ie, unchecked and uncontrolled by any law, institution, constitutional device, or coordinate body; iow, without restriction and without any checks and balances of any kind, just how many czars do you think America ought to have? Or are you, just like so many of the other posts on this sie, simply posturing with rhetoric?
What's really puzzling about the use of the metaphor is how bad most of the czars actually were at governing. While that's probably an apt metaphor much of the time -- the 'drug czar,' for instance -- it's not clear to me why people would want to associate themselves with it.
9.26.2008 9:43pm

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