The Bailout:
Co-conspirator Eric Posner writes:
Meanwhile, right now niceties of statutory construction must be ignored because the people who drafted the statutes did not anticipate the nature of this emergency though of course they knew that emergencies could happen. Back in 1932 (the most recent amendment was in 1991), Congress apparently believed that the Fed could respond to a financial crises solely by making loans so there was no need to give it the power to purchase businesses, a power that could be abused. Turns out this belief might have been wrong. Some loans may not be wise unless the lender can more or less control the borrower and can earn a portion of the upside, which just means that the Fed should have the power to purchase equity as well as debt. Going forward, all that Congress can do is provide even greater statutory discretion by expanding old authorities, so that next time round there will be no doubts about legality, and hope that the Fed does not abuse this discretion. There is, and can be, no serious debate about the best way to respond to the emergency in advance of it, and no time to have a debate during it. So Congress proves itself again an utterly helpless institution. It can whine (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122176444088253287.html?mod=googlenews_wsj) today, hold oversight hearings tomorrow, and dutifully hand over more authority to the Fed on the next day. In the meantime, bad decisions by our government during this financial crisis, and future ones as well, will harm Americans and people around the world just as much as bad war-on-terror decisions do. Sorry, my libertarian friends; this is the world we live in. And there is no conceivable alternativeHe's probably right, sad to say -- Congress can no more give direction in crises like this one than it can direct troop movements during wartime. But one (small) point should be stressed here: the current bailout is being crafted not just by the Fed, but by the Treasury Department in conjunction with the Fed. It's not an insignificant point -- the Fed, after all, is almost completely shielded from political pressure, which is (usually) a good thing. But I, for one, would be a lot more nervous about the current bailout (and future bailouts) if I thought that the Fed was acting on its own; at least the occupants of the Treasury Dep't have some claim to having been chosen by the electorate, and are not entirely independent of voters' claims.
And I don't know about you all, but really, I sure wish that we had someone like Sarah Palin calling the shots here -- nothing like someone who knows absolutely nothing about the issues to steer us through a potentially planet-wide financial meltdown, eh?
All Related Posts (on one page) | Some Related Posts:
- Paulson v. Dodd: distributional considerations.
- The Bailout and Oversight.
- The Dodd Plan: A Contract Clause Problem?...
- The Bailout Bill: What Should Congress Do?
- The Bailout:
- More on the Financial Meltdown and the Legal Response....
- Four Ways to Rationalize the AIG Deal --
- The AIG Deal.
- What is the legal status of the AIG takeover?
It is clear what is going on here. China and other foreign entities will refuse to buy the treasuries necessary to fund this bailout unless they get bailed out too.
Note this piece from the WaPo:
This is extortion, plain and simple.
Watch now as our country gets looted before our eyes.
In any particular case I suspect that various advisers would have more of a role, regardless of the politician.
I would actually welcome some commentary on Sen. Obama on the current crisis. I don't think it unreasonable that, as a Senator and Presidential candidate, he offered opinion on the SoFA with Iraq. He ought to have some sort of opinion on the current crisis. (However, politically, I certainly agree that it's safer to stay quiet and out of the spotlight in situations like this.)
Of course, the real answer to the question "Should the Executive/Fed or Congress be in charge of managing the economy?" is "neither".
Steve Lubet-- Sure. Or Obama/Biden will put Howard Raines and Jim Johnson, who know a little bit about the current crisis, in charge of cleaning it up.
The Executive Branch and others are indeed taking too much power in my opinion-- but Congress isn't offering much of a challenge or even an opinion at all. Harry Reid sure isn't.
Sen. Obama:
It's clear that Congress wants to wash their hands of it and hope that the White House gets stuck with the blame. I wish that they'd actually be involved, for I agree it's dangerous for the President to have so much power.
To this troglodyte's eye, the proposal looks like Bolshevism in a Brooks Brothers suit. I'm deeply nervous of bipartisan agreements in times of emergency without details. I fear that the Evil Party and the Stupid Party have reached an Evil, Stupid consensus that we will all look back on soon and regret, as we now regret no-money-down mortgages for bad credit risks.
Citations would follow if I didn't have an in fant on my lap and a toddler climbing my back.
In fact, it's not clear to me that Paulson and Bernanke are equipped to handle this, either; it's not as if they did anything before it came to this point. But we certainly don't expect non-economist/non-bankers to be able to do so (even if they all manage to Monday-morning quarterback). We expect them to hire the right people. Which even doofus Bush seems to have managed to do (as much as anybody can be said to be the right people here), no?
Wha...?? The right people?
These are the same people who presided over the escalation of the crisis to begin with.
Republicans, seriously, you people f'in amaze me...
Seems like now is not the time to be playing chicken, but if the industry types will vote NO unless the money comes with no strings, I say Call their bluff.
Nor would I want you (or the President, no matter who it is) in charge of coming up with cleanup plans in the aftermath of an environmental disaster. The President, like the CEO of any large enterprise, is not intended to be hands-on in this way. His responsibility is to hire the right team and protect the public's interest.
Presidents are effective when political solutions are required. For highly technical problems in finance, politicians and--sad to say--law professors, are not well equipped to handle them. Would you put the chairman of the Senate banking committee in charge here? Neither would I.
I'll wager that neither you nor Sarah Palin nor Barack Obama nor anyone who has occupied the Oval Office has the level of required knowledge to tackle this without expert input (otherwise Henry Paulson would have to go back to making millions at Goldman).
The only one who's come out of this with a slightly less noxious odour than anyone else is President Bush, for having tried to fix this five years ago. In hindsight he should have put up more of a fight when both sides in Congress rejected his proposal, but at least he tried, and going into a re-election year, with Iraq on everyone's mind, didn't seem like a good time for such a fight.
The sobriety, perspective, and unfettered integrity she would bring to bear would probably result in an assassination within a fortnight.
The sooner you realize this is more a CYA situation than a pursuit of the long-term good, the better your predictive powers will become.
As you have been well and truly slapped down for the above, simplistic statement, I will just include that your comments are sexist, elitist and partially racist (Palin is married to a part eskimo).
Perhaps if we'd had someone like Palin calling the shots for the last 16 years, we'd not be in this mess, given how much corruption and partisan obstruction has gotten us to this point (beginning with Clinton v. Newt in '95).
Post, your caricature of Palin is unbecoming of a professor. Think harder.
1. How much money to extract from the federal government.
2. How much money to extract from oil companies.
3. How much money to give to residents.
4. How to dole out positions to friends from high school.
Might, just might, have some issues. This is where the whole "background experience" comes in. I trust the base of knowledge held by Obama, McCain, and even Biden. I can say no such thing for Palin. Which again goes to the lack of judgment in picking her. The judgment came down to only whether it would excite the base- not whether she could step in on day one; this reflects poorly on McCain.
But that's me and my partisan blinders.
Amen.
Seems like now is not the time to be playing chicken, but if the industry types will vote NO unless the money comes with no strings, I say Call their bluff.
Amen to that as well.
Step back. Why is this rescue necessary? Because of its supposed effects on Americans at large.
If Wall Street is demanding a $700B+ bailout for its own bad choices, without conceding any federal interest in restraining the Street's future ability to make similar (and ever-larger) demands on the taxpayers ...
... then tell them to look to the Free Market for help, save the $700B, and use it to help the "Americans at large" if and when the economic tumble hits *them*.
--Loki13, don't confuse them with the facts.
Yeah, all the smart people in change have down a really spiffy job up to now.
Obama, Biden, McCain are.
This is a pure re-direct, when Obama has offered nothing of his own plan and "had to consult with his advisors" before he could speak on the joint Fed. Rev. and Treasury plan. Reminds me of the whole "it's above my paygrade" answer. The word of the day--punt.
I am getting really sick and tired of this fallacy. Maybe this crap flies on the Daily Kos...
Good lord! The man felt the need to CONSULT WITH HIS ADVISORS before addressing one of the most drastic and unprecedented crises ever to affect American finance.
My friends, John McCain won't consult with his advisors. He'll fire Chris Cox, vent about greed, and then tell his Veep and Phil Gramm to call Wall Street and ask them who to make the check out to, while the President takes a nap.
Really, if "consulting with advisors" is something you DON'T want in a president, then vote Republican. Or better yet, don't vote.
1. Cut spending and divert to the bailout.
2. Increase taxes.
3. Borrow from Americans by selling bonds to them.
4. Borrow from foreigners by selling bonds to them.
5. Sell government assets. The Feds own most of Nevada and Alaska and other real property.
6. Sell American assets in the private sector to foreigners.
7. Treasury sells bonds to the Fed which pays with its magic check book. This is of course money creation.
Choices 1-5 are politically difficult. Ask Obama if he is willing to give up his new spending programs and actually curtail current social spending. He won't even answer you, all you will get is a "no, no, no." The guy is pathetic. Ask McCain if he is willing to raise taxes and curtail military spending and all you will get is a blank stare as his feeble brain tries to digest what you said. Choices 6 and 7 are most likely what we will get.
DB wins the thread. Unless of course, the above is a subtle racist comment...:-)
Sorry to get all tinfoily, but I have actually caught myself wondering whether the bailout doesn't reflect GOP anxiety that McCain will lose, and thus, how to ensure that the federal largesse is devoted to the rich rather than to anyone else.
As Zarkov suggests, such huge donations of cash to Wall Street, on top of existing debt (as magnified by the Iraq war etc.), will make it difficult to spend money on, say, national health insurance.
This could be the latest version of "starve the beast," with the pleasing adjustment that instead of reducing federal expenditures, the money just goes straight into the pocket of Wall Street.
(--PLEASE feel free to explain the silliness in what I've written, as I would very much like to be proved silly here. After all, I didn't consult with my advisors before writing this comment.)
As opposed to Obama who have voted present this week?
Its not good enough to say "Palin sucks." you also have to explain why Obama would be better.
This is a cop out and the Obamabots know that. We don't need details from him, but we do need to know what will guide him in making policy choices with regard to the bailout. Is he willing to give up his new spending programs? Is he ok with selling American private assets to foreigners? The Chinese really want to buy American corporations to enhance an already outrageous amount of technology transfer to them. The Arabs of course in too. Under current circumstances wouldn't they stand to get the Dubai Ports deal?
The jab at Palin is infantile though. Bush isn't calling the shots on stuff like this nor would anyone who is president. They all play ball or they don't get to play.
why not draw on her Alaska experience:
1. eliminate income tax
2. fund budget from royalties and excess profits taxes on resource companies
3. remit surplus to taxpayers
She has a proven track record.
Welcome to a Palin and McCain administration.
Balkin is on target today:
Satire doesn't come through very well on teh intertubez, so just to check- you are being sarcastic, right?
No doubt Karl Rove and the office of the Vice-President cooked up the plan! Now, whoever succeeds President Bush will be locked into both his foreign and domestic economic policies. Moohaha!
Bingo! Given SenatorX 100 silver dollars (and like the rest of he's going to need them). Anyone who has read the blog site Calculated Risk regularly over the last several years knew the real estate bust was coming. How can a market sustain price/income ratios of 10? Krugman nailed the situation two years ago. Christopher Thornberg analyzed the real estate situation perfectly along with the devastating affect on the California economy, which now has the third highest unemployment rate in the country. Are we to believe all the smart guys on Wall Street, all the economists at the Fed and Treasury didn't know what was coming? How about a $45 trillion (notional value) in Credit Default Swaps. Is that chopped liver? Instead of analysis we get snarky comments about Palin. Shame on you professor.
Obama, Biden, McCain are.
They're semi-literate?
Uh, no. You did scare me, but I don't have to do the math. Let's make this very basic:
The United States != Alaska.
First, Alaska does well because of the money they extract from the Federal Government. The Fed. Govt. can't extract money from a higher government for needed improvements (the U.N.?).
Second, the resource extraction works for Alaska because of their, y'know, resources. Not so much the rest of the nation. Unless you want to tax companies for their general business, which also won't work.
Third, you would need to replace the income tax with another tax (consumption, for example) while reducing services. That's fine, but that has to be said.
I could go on, but in short, your plan is ridiculous.
You are right, you don't know about we all.
An un-necessary, gratuitous "shot" at Governor Palin. Maybe you should hope that she does not take a "shot" at you. The comment seems a sexist comment guided by a biased ideology.
I am interested in your view of B. Obama's qualifications to be POTUS based on his experience as a community organizer, who has only organized (agitated) but has never lead anything, with his demonstrated vast knowledge of "absolutely nothing about the issues." You are right again when you say "nothing like someone who knows absolutely nothing about the issues to steer us through a potentially planet-wide financial meltdown, eh?"
Governor Palin, the only person in the campaign with executive experience, is only a VP nominee and yet is seen as a threat to the "one" and is causing a liberal melt-down, eh?.
Is your tower really made of ivory, or is it plastic?
I say - like I said to you guys months ago - bail out Main Street before you bail out Wall Street. Keep people in their homes by covering their mortgages for a period (one year) in exchange they will have a lousy credit rating but neighborhoods are stabilized. Persons who are in a position to continue to pay off their loans have the benefit of keeping a decent credit rating as compared to the persons who have gone belly up.
Why this extraordinary speed and secrecy on this deal to push it through? To bailout domestic and international capital first instead of the average Joe and Jane.
Talk about affirmative action for the rich!
Best,
Ben
Is an inexperienced VP worse than an inexperienced president?
Is an inexperienced woman worse than an inexperienced man?
is an inexperienced white worse than an inexperienced black?
Or is an inexperienced conservative worse than an inexperienced liberal?
What's the point David and why don't you just make it?
Or are you just exposing your PDS?
PS: Thirdly, I believe Gov. Palin is opposed to sales taxes, except for municipalities;
Secondly, Palin has vastly overstated the energy contribution of Alaska; therefore there are many other resource rich locations to fund this
firstly, I doubt Palin would think of the UN as a higher government, perhaps China would help.
The bankers are already suffering enough:
I would take Palin, who thus far has done nothing nearly as stupid, over anyone of the jerks we're calling experienced.
From the Paulson's famous "3 pages":
"(a) Authority to Purchase.--The Secretary is authorized to purchase, and to make and fund commitments to purchase, on such terms and conditions as determined by the Secretary, mortgage-related assets from any financial institution having its headquarters INTHE UNITED STATES."
So I do not think the INTENT of the Treasury's action is to bail foreign banks.
It may work out that way.
The key here (and it is touched upon in a WSJ "Heard inthe Street" article today) is how much the Treasury is going to pay for the "toxic" debt. If properly done it may end up costing taxpayers very little. The purchase price for the debt should be low enough that some banks will suck it up and hang on to the debt they own, toxic or not. This will be a tough and complex auction and if congress could somehow stop playing to the bleachers for a few days they might be able to put pressure on Paulson to negotiate a passably good deal for the taxpayer.
You're looking at an old version of the language. The new proposal removes "having its headquarters in the United States." It now says:
That's not possible. If the banks had to take those kinds of losses onto their books, it would defeat the purpose of the bill.
Second, there's nothing whatsoever in the language of the proposal that ensures this will happen - or even encourages it to happen. It's all left to the unfettered discretion of Paulson -- one of their own former partners.
That's not to say I will vote for Obama, I just despise incompetence/ignorance/idiocy. It certainly doesn't help my opinion of politicians when they possess all three qualities.
In addition to your Obama quote from the LA Times blog, he also issued this statement, outlining his view on what a any rescue plan should look like, noting that the proposed legislation is a concept, not a plan (quoted in Politico):
While neither Obama or McCain have issued specifc proposals (except McCain's flailing around vow to fire Chris Cox as head of the SEC). McCain has proposed a Mortgage and Financial Institutions trust, which sounds like a permanent government agency to take bad assets from banks rather than letting them fail.
I can't wait for the Presidentail debate on the economy, scheduled for October 15th.
Not true! McCain proposed creating a commission to study the problem.
Where in the world do people get this Wall-Street=Republican pals idea? That was the 1950's, Jake. It's equal opportunity now. Room for all at the trough. The Dems may even be "leading" in that scramble. (Tough call, I know.)
Remember, from both a trader's and longterm investor's perspective (and even a swingtrader's perspective), with great panic, euphoria, and emotional excess comes great opportunity. This is the kind of market where those with cool heads, a contrarian nature, can find some phenomenal value and trade opp's.
Just putting in my note of optimism here. I HATED the market (long) when dow was near 14k. To be honest, I hated it from about 12.5 k and on up to 14k. I was almost exclusively cash, commodities, shorts, etc. see WAY more opp's now than I saw then.
I'm no fan of hers, but she couldn't be worse than the looting, power-lusting politicians who make back-room deals with welfare-seeking "businessmen."
And I do wish Palin was running the show, she might be see through the con and stop this nonsense.
Considering Biden, this just isn't your year...
Thanks for your correction.
"That's not possible. If the banks had to take those kinds of losses onto their books, it would defeat the purpose of the bill."
Explain please; why is it not possible? the debt is currently carried on their balance sheets "marked to market". Some is carried as low as $.40 on the dollar so if some debt is sold at that figure, an obviously unappealing but necessary choice, why not keep some of the debt and hope for a better outcome ? I don't think the banks' balance sheets are so bad that they can't keep a lot of this debt. They won't, of course, if they get paid face value for their bad paper.
But I don't think the rescue will do that.
Yeah, because the opinions of a bunch of law professors are oh-so-important when it comes to economic management.
Why is it that otherwise intelligent Leftists always feel that it is acceptable to take dumb, easily rebutted cheap shots at people that they disagree with? Considering that neither Palin nor Obama/Biden know anything about these issues, one would have thought that the quote would be more convincing if you substitute "Sarah Palin" with "Barack Obama." Since Palin at least has more executive experience than Obama and Biden (and Clinton) combined, she would at least be in a position to get the right people to give her the right advice and make the right decision in a time of crisis.
No, it is NOT actually marked to market. There IS no market for it. If they actually marked it to market, it would be worth much, much less than the book value (zero, in some cases).
Executive experience always translates into more knowledge.
Jesus, you'd rather put a Burger King Manager in charge of the economy than a magna cum laude Harvard Law graduate who taught law at U of C for ten years and has been in the U.S. Senate for 4?
Please, stop the insanity.
bingo. i trade mostly index futures, but i have been in contact with bond traders etc. who see instruments being offered with LITERALLY no bid. these instruments are so exotic and decoupled, that nobody really knew what they were worth, but they were valued at unrealistic prices because simply put, they could be.
when you have a commodity or a stock with an established two way auction market, the current price is whatever the current bid/ask is, and there always is one/. when you are dealing with exotic crap, there IS no such market. i was actually reading "blood on the streets" recently (great account of the tech bubble collapse) and roughly the same thing happened in many cases.
Since Palin at least has more executive experience than Obama and Biden (and Clinton) combined, she would at least be in a position to get the right people to give her the right advice and make the right decision in a time of crisis.
Obama seems to have been able to get a number of "people to give him the right advice and make the right decision in a time of crisis".
You may not like them since many of them were providing advice on the US economy to Clinton in the 90's when the US seemed to be prospering and running a budgetary surplus.
Palin knows how to hire people? well seems as if Obama does too.
But as to Palin, who is it she knows? Her team from Alaska?
(I'm not disparaging the Alaska team, but isnt that what the Carter problem was in 76: he brought his Georgia team.
Alaska sure seems like an easy state to be governor of. 90% of Revenue from resource companies. Makes it pretty easy to balance the budget.
amazing statement, especially on a libertarian leaning blog. here's a hint. i wouldn't "rather" put ANYBODY "in charge" of the economy. nor IS there anybody "in charge" of the economy.
presidents are not in charge of economy. nor is congress, but at least they have the power to tax, etc.
no public (or private) person or group is "in charge" of the economy, nor should they be. the very concept is absurd. bogus premise- bogus conclusion. nobody will be put "in charge" of the economy.
if I offered you a $300,000 loan without bothering to check that you had the income to pay it back, if I asked for a wildly-overvalued asset as collateral, who would be the bigger fool? You for taking the loan or me for making it?
There’s this thing called, ‘due diligence’. I would think a Very Serious Person like yourself would be familiar with that concept.
Right...
I see no evidence of this whatsoever. Anybody who was remotely a libertarian would be screaming bloody murder right now.
BTW, what rock have you been living under?
I'd rather put my garbageman in charge of anything, rather than some semi-literate Soros tool who can't even address a rodeo crowd without a teleprompter.
Obama is not smart enough to be in charge of the economy, no should we want anyone in charge of the economy.
McCain's call for dismissing Cox as chairman of the SEC is disgraceful and shows what a lunkhead he really is. There's nothing wrong with Cox or the SEC. In fact Cox is an intelligent and dedicated public servant. The problem is Congress. Among other things they took away the power to regulate derivatives from the SEC. They helped create this mess.
Reminds me of a line from an old movie, Operation Petticoat, about the misadventures of a WWII sub (it sinks a truck at one point). Tony Curtis plays some kind of hustler assigned to the sub as supply officer. The sub pulls into port (needing repairs and gear) just as the port is being bombed by the Japanese. He grabs two guys and starts to leave the boat to go into the burning, bombed port. The capitan, Cary Grant, asks him what does he think he's doing? Curtis says, "In chaos, there is profit."
And while there's no doubt that Obama is academically accomplished and knows something about the law, what on earth about being good at law school would make him qualified to "run the economy" even in a relative sense? He's a lawyer, not an economist.
By contrast, unless I've missed something in any of the posts or comments here to this point, no one delves into certain aspects of the causes of this near meltdown. Excerpt:
"Barack Obama and Democrats blame the historic financial turmoil on the market. But if it's dysfunctional, Democrats during the Clinton years are a prime reason for it.
"Obama in a statement yesterday blamed the shocking new round of subprime-related bankruptcies on the free-market system, and specifically the "trickle-down" economics of the Bush administration, which he tried to gig opponent John McCain for wanting to extend.
"But it was the Clinton administration, obsessed with multiculturalism, that dictated where mortgage lenders could lend, and originally helped create the market for the high-risk subprime loans now infecting like a retrovirus the balance sheets of many of Wall Street's most revered institutions.
"Tough new regulations forced lenders into high-risk areas where they had no choice but to lower lending standards to make the loans that sound business practices had previously guarded against making. It was either that or face stiff government penalties.
"The untold story in this whole national crisis is that President Clinton put on steroids the Community Redevelopment Act, a well-intended Carter-era law designed to encourage minority homeownership. And in so doing, he helped create the market for the risky subprime loans that he and Democrats now decry as not only greedy but "predatory.""
Oh great - it's the fault of the minorities buying homes that President Bush use to tout as his one accomplishment with regard to minorities! Man I have seen everything.
Best,
Ben
"Unlike the authors of some of the cruder attacks on Mr Obama, Mr Freddoso works for a well-respected organisation, the online version of the National Review. Although it is a conservative publication and the author makes no secret of where his political sympathies lie, this is a well-researched, extensively footnoted work. It aims not so much to attack Mr Obama as to puncture the belief that he is in some way an extraordinary, mould-breaking politician.
"The Obama that emerges from its pages is not, Mr Freddoso says, “a bad person. It’s just that he’s like all the rest of them. Not a reformer. Not a Messiah. Just like all the rest of them in Washington.” And the author makes a fairly compelling case that this is so. The best part of the book concentrates on Mr Obama’s record in Chicago, his home town and the place from which he was elected to the Illinois state Senate in 1996, before moving to the United States Senate in 2004. The book lays out in detail how this period began in a way that should shock some of Mr Obama’s supporters: he won the Democratic nomination for his Illinois seat by getting a team of lawyers to throw all the other candidates off the ballot on various technicalities. One of those he threw off was a veteran black politician, a woman who helped him get started in politics in the first place."
You'd need to read - and comprehend - the article as a whole.
"That's not to say I will vote for Obama, I just despise incompetence/ignorance/idiocy. It certainly doesn't help my opinion of politicians when they possess all three qualities."
Incompetent: Inadequate for or unsuited to a particular purpose or application.
Ignorant: Unaware or uninformed.
Idiot: A foolish or stupid person.
Assuming you will not vote for a politician possessing these three qualities, can we conclude that you will not vote for Obama?
An additional qualification for the "one": Andrew C. McCarthy has suggested that the "one" is an example a tabula rasa: The mind in a supposed empty state before receiving sense impressions, id est, teleprompter input.
An "estimate", right. Anybody who believes their estimates actually represent anything resembling market value is incredibly obtuse.
Sorry, but when you put a single person in charge of $700 billion, ostensibly for the purpose of preventing the collapse of the financial system, that's about as close to being "in charge of the economy" as you get.
and you still don't get it. when there IS NO MARKET, there is no LEGITIMATE way to determine price/value.
the whole point is that two way auctions ESTABLISH price by the respective best bids/offers in the book. but many of these securities have no market/book.
despite the fact they have to be marked to market, the # can be meaningless, and is largely based on the whim of the holder of the security as to "value".
markets define price, and of course traders and investors (on various time frames) step in and buy/sell when they see divergence between their perception of current/future value and current price. in the case of pure priceaction traders, they step in when they see divergences in supply/demand that suggest either momentum shift or continuation movement.
that's not the case with many of these instruments that were being marked to market based on assumptions (mortgage solvency etc.) that were speculative at best and laughably wrong at worst.
in brief... how do you mark to market, when there is no market?
The difference, Prof. Bernstein, is that Obama at least has the mind to understand what's going on, whereas Palin's stupid.
Someone should tell Paulson, Bernanke and Bush.
To anyone that still wants to blame this crisis on the CRA, read this. The CRA being the cause of this crisis is a wingnut talking point.
Oh, really? He's the one who ignored his economic advisers and started talking about renegotiating NAFTA.
Obama has proved that on economic issues, he's a demagogue with neither an understanding of economics nor a willingness to listen to experts. Palin might be the same, but at least she hasn't proven that she's both ignorant and incompetent like Obama has.
The market is telling Paulson, Bernanke and Bush.
Why can't these institutions file for bankruptcy under Zywicki's super duper new Bankruptcy Act? Could it be that they paid good lobbying money to get an Act that's designed only for other people?
Obama has proved that on economic issues, he's a demagogue with neither an understanding of economics nor a willingness to listen to experts. Palin might be the same, but at least she hasn't proven that she's both ignorant and incompetent like Obama has.
I'm not an Obama fan either. But that was pandering. He has no intention of pulling out of NAFTA. Remember Goolsbeegate? As for Palin, she's proven that she's really dumb. Tell me when she says one thing in unscripted remarks that makes sense or means anything.
To put a little more meat on the bones of the critique of your Palin caricature, see this. Excerpt:
"Talk with her for awhile, as I did (on July 12, 2007), and try to count the number of references to her state Constitution. During that phone call, she cited it more than 12 times -- not once gratuitously.
'It's my bible in governing,' Palin says. 'I try to keep it so simple by reading the thing and believing in it and living it. It's providential. Some of the crafters of the Constitution are still alive. They're my mentors, my advisers. I get to meet with these folks and ask, 'What did you mean by this?' And it makes so much sense.'"
Assuming you're a con law scholar, this should provide some reassurance.
If not, compare the Murkowski pipeline deal with the one reached through the process hammered out by Palin and the legislature. Then compare the Murkowski deal to Dodd/Rangel Fannie/Freddie oversight/sponsorship. Connect the dots.
Hint: she's not that "conservative", as you seem to understand the term. Just think of her as a Rizzuto.
I can't wait to hear what Thomas Jefferson's animated head says we should do about credit default swaps and nuclear proliferation.
I know you think that this was a compliment, and maybe if she wanted to be a judge it would be. But to me it sounds like someone who thinks with the complexity of...who does this remind me of.. oh yeah, George frickin' Bush.
There, there. On January 20, 2009, you will can sign up for a 16 year course at the PDS institute for the simple minded.
That's right. I will not be voting for Obama. I guess I should have been more explicit then
However I don't think Obama is ignorant or an idiot; merely incompetent. I consider McCain incompetent and ignorant, Biden as an incompetent idiot, and Palin as all three. So in all likelihood, I'm not voting for anyone.
So she's a naive original expected applicationist.
Weren't you whining about the (well deserved) "mean response" you got for your earlier asinine post about Palin? Is there any point to your snark in this post? You come across as a partisan imbecile instead of a Law Professor with this type of a post. Respect is to be earned - not automatically bestowed because you are a professor.
You criticized a VP candidate, fine! What did the presidential candidates do or say? I don't know if your chosen one is supporting this or not. He said he is not opposed to it, but is not supporting it yet. So, he is voting "present" again. And Mr. Experience (mccain) says he will not allow greed on wall street! Talk about changing human nature! Who knows what Biden is saying except that we have to pay more taxes to earn patriotism brownie points. And you are going out of your way to show that you are a petty idiot?
Mahan Atma,
Perhaps you should check and see who the top 3 recipients of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac largesse is. What is amazing, Obama is Number 2 and he managed that in 4 short years in the Senate. He also voted for the poison pill amendment to the Reform Act proposed by McCain in 05/06 to restore oversight of these 2, thus helping to kill the bill. Bush has been agitating for reform since 2003. Democrats and Republicans were having none of it, but as it was a Democratic Congress, they have to take more of the blame. Bush was for it, so they can't use that as an excuse.
This is a time, Mahan, when you have to wake up. The only folks benefiting from partisanship is the politicians who won't be held accountable by their own party. Yes, I do blame Democrats more as the MSM is on their side and won't ask the tough questions that our Founding Fathers thought they would to keep them honest.
A lot of the same folks who presided over the 1987 Savings and Loan fiasco and bail out, which I believe was caused by Congress changing the very tax laws they wrote earlier without understanding the consequences, have presided over this fiasco. Then, as now, they point to "greed on Wall Street" . I don't know what that means. Wall Street has a fiduciary responsibility to maximize profits. However, the real greed, that needs to be addressed is the greed on the part of those sitting in the halls of Congress. If you really believe that Democrats are not on the take from Big Business as well as Big Unions and Big Lawyers, esp. trial lawyers, you are terribly ill informed and naive.
And, Professor. I would like Sarah Palin in there, quite frankly. I would feel a lot better about her than someone who has never held a job in the private sector. never met a payroll and never had to struggle to make ends meet. And, one who isn't best buddies with the players, Congressional and otherwise. What conceivable experience does Obama have? And, Biden??? He makes 300,000 per year and has a net worth of 150,000. It seems the guy has never saved a dime, let alone made any investment or at least any successful investment. No, he is not giving his money to charity. His charitable donations amount to point 6 percent, not 6 percent, but point 6.
I rather liked Obama's message of doing business in a new way, until I figured out he never has and isn't likely to start now. McCain, for all his shortcomings, has railed against earmarks and pork and the money in politics for most of his career. He is one of the few who has consistently worried about passing on all this debt to our children and grandchildren. No one else gives a damn. I don't even like a lot about McCain, but give the Devil his due, for Pete's sake. Don't give me he knows lobbyists. Everyone in Washington knows lobbyists. Quite a few probably know lobbyists for lawyers.
And, if you believe that Biden is going to keep his promise to not talk to lobbyists, perhaps you should ask him if he plans on not talking to his own son who is a lobbyist? I bet having Biden as his Dad never helped him one bit. Yeah, right.
I was a kid in 1959 when they had the Colorado land rush. It was exciting - you could stake out your own 5 acres of federal land and own it, free and clear.
If this were done in Alaska, Hawaii, Nebraska, Nevada, Utah, Montana, Wyoming, etc., etc., can you imagine how much cash it would generate? Rather than a land rush, they could do it by a citizen lottery.
[BTW -- for those extolling Obama's wonderful senatorial 'experience,' check out his brave voting record.]
As mayor, Palin hardly struggled to make ends meet. She raised taxes and spent the town into debt, then left the next mayor to deal with the problem.
Come to think of it, Richard Fuld has more executive experience in the private sector then any of the candidates. Fuld 08!
AMEN!
You would probably appreciate Sen. Joe Biden's comment about Barry Obama:
"I mean, you got the first mainstream African American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice looking guy."
Translation: Barry's the first really good one. All the others were jive-talkin', stoopid, dirty, ugly negroes.
Thanks for your opinion, Joe. But bein' a Democrat and all, you get a pass.
Gee, I wish I could find that article detailing all the times Obama blamed his advisors for his doing something stupid, like the NAFTA fiasco in Canada. If we are to believe Obama has great advisors, one wonders why he blames them so much.
Listening to the evil Wall Street mavins and the even more EVIL, Rupert Murdock, yesterday, bottom line is, no one knows what to do. We have never been here before. If Murdock and a lot of other smart people are perplexed, I am quite sure that neither you nor the posters here have a clue either.
Congress could have prevented this, but they won't fix it.
There is this article by Amity Shales that bears reading regarding the similarities between today and 1929. Bottom line, if Government does the wrong thing or repeats the mistakes of 1929, we could be in a Depression for many years to come. I am amazed at how similar Congress then is to Congress now. It's rather scary and is a scenario quite likely to be repeated.
"Hey doesn't anyone here think this is a huge swindle of Main Street America? Where are the criminal prosecutions of all these Wall Street bankers who created this mess?"
You mean by Main Street America? We're the ones who demanded cheap credit and lax standards and elected and re-elected the representatives who delivered it. Plenty of blame to go around if you want to play that game. Maybe after the Depression is averted we can sort things out together.
"I can't wait to hear what Thomas Jefferson's animated head says we should do about credit default swaps and nuclear proliferation."
I'm guessing it wouldn't include a blank check for Treasury on the former and negotiations without preconditions (talk about naive!) on the latter, but I don't have to guess: we have the document itself to go by, and amend as necessary.
"I know you think that this was a compliment, and maybe if she wanted to be a judge it would be."
I think it is evidence - something the critiques of her are sorely lacking. Instead we get rank prejudice that makes the critic look more foolish than the criticized. Do you really think that the judicial branch is the only one that should be guided by the constitution?
"But to me it sounds like someone who thinks with the complexity of...who does this remind me of.. oh yeah, George frickin' Bush."
Your reply suggests you might strain to reach that level yourself, although I'd hope one could find a better word than "complexity" to express the sort of thinking we seek in a President.
"So she's a naive original expected applicationist."
Unless we want to invite Sarkozy or Putin to run, all four candidates will be naive the moment they take the oath. The question is what they would likely do in that naivete. The instincts, actions, and accomplishments Palin has shown in her Alaskan naivete indicate some unique promise in the larger arena.
"As mayor, Palin hardly struggled to make ends meet. She raised taxes and spent the town into debt, then left the next mayor to deal with the problem."
As I understand it, under her watch municipal bonds were issued to finance infrastructure development (and a sports center). The bonds were retired early. And raising taxes is now a disqualifying practice for national office? Who knew? As I said before, she's not that conservative...