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Obama bounce now gone in Rasmussen Tracking Poll; both tied at 48%.

As I suggested might happen a few days ago, Rasmussen is now reporting that McCain and Obama are tied in the 3-day tracking poll, each at 48%. This represents a 3% jump from yesterday's results. Thus, Saturday's respondents favored McCain by 8-10% more than Wednesday's respondents, just before Palin's Wednesday speech.

The Obama bounce, which peaked at a 6% lead in the Rasmussen poll released last Tuesday, is gone. Obama still leads by 1.8% in the Real Clear Politics composite.

JB:
Perhaps this is due to a...McCain bounce?

In fact, every convention produces a bounce for its party's candidate. I think you were being far too conservative in your prediction.
9.7.2008 1:12pm
Ernie (mail):
Gallop has McCain up by 3.8 today!
9.7.2008 1:15pm
James Lindgren (mail):
Ernie,

The Gallup Poll you mention is not on their site.
9.7.2008 1:28pm
Angus:
Zogby has McCain up by 3.8 in their "interactive" poll that is so awful in its online methodology that polling sites always exclude it from their averages.

In other news, the media bubble around Palin continues. 3 of the 4 candidates will be interviewed on the Sunday morning pressers. Palin is the sole no-show.
9.7.2008 1:34pm
JK:
I'm going on memory here, but I think 48/48 would also be about the lowest percentage of undecideds also. I still say we need to wait untill the end of next week before we really have a solid idea of what the net result of the conventions/Palin is. "Bounces" are fun to watch, but what's important is whether either side gets a persistant bump, and these polls tell us very little on that front.
9.7.2008 1:34pm
JK:
Angus is right that the "Zogby Interactive" poll really isn't worth mentioning. It's a completely non-random sample, you can go sign up right now.
9.7.2008 1:38pm
Hoosier:
Obamaphiles will jump on me for saying this, but it's an honest observation: The Democrats are going to clean up in Congress. Obama should be far ahead of McCain at this time.
9.7.2008 1:42pm
Hoosier:
Angus--You are right about Palin. And let me be the first McCain supporter to admit that she's almost certainly meeting with campaign aides and studying briefing books about issues. Especially likely: She's learning off the names of heads of government/state for any country she could reasonably expect a question about.

(BUT WAIT! Aren't you admitting she's not ready?!! AHA!)

Tes, for that part of the job. No governor really would be. And they don't want a repeat of the "Bush pop quiz" from 2000. But keep in mid that this is what expereinced people do as well, if they expect close scrutiny. Read James Baker's memoir. He was a former WH COS, and former Treasury Sec (the latter is my choise for best pre-presidential preparation). Yet when he was going before a (mostly friendly) SFRC for hearings on his nomination to be SEC of STATE, he crammed on names of leders, arms control terms, etc.

No one knows all that stuff. And yet getting one or two names wrong can make you look bad. So I certainly HOPE she is doing this. And I hope she keeps at it for another week. After which, there will be plenty of time to ask her questions.
9.7.2008 1:48pm
Sarah (mail) (www):
Not to mention, letting the media stew and grumble and say nasty things with no response followed by one significant response that everyone's watching -- well, let's just say that it's worked so far.

Does anyone have a good idea of which polling organizations (if any) have consistently done well in predicting the results of a national election, two or three months out? It seems to me that when we can't even get exit polling (which is a poll of people who've actually voted) right, expecting polls of "likely" voters is even less likely to succeed. All that's left is using the polls as a general tactical guide, which is only really useful to the campaigns. Though, it does also help me determine which phrases to design for t-shirts next ("Some Guy/Palin" is flying off the shelves this weekend.)
9.7.2008 1:54pm
Angus:
Obamaphiles will jump on me for saying this, but it's an honest observation: The Democrats are going to clean up in Congress. Obama should be far ahead of McCain at this time.

I agree completely. In part, and I've said this before on VC, I think Obama is running a crappy campaign. Their few attempts at negative ads have been feeble (houses? Really?).

McCain had been running a largely good campaign, though some of his negative ads were less effective than others (Obama as Moses parting the Red Sea? Even Republicans reacted badly to that one). Strange to see McCain shift into making his campaign the Palin campaign. I watched one of their stump speech rallies online and almost all of McCain's remarks were about Palin, even repeating Palin's applause lines and with a few extra...exaggerations...thrown in. Maybe this works for him while Palin is still shiny and new, but I can't imagine running on the VP candidate's image can sustain a campaign for 2 months.
9.7.2008 1:55pm
Dan M.:
The McCain people are probably spending hours on end trying to convince her to toe the party line on gun shows while she lists off one after another the millions of guns she's traded privately.
9.7.2008 1:57pm
NU 1L:
Pretty much what is expected after the RNC- especially given the very high ratings and interest of the public. Sarah Palin intensity after the pick backfired on the Dems- set really low expectations for her speech and now she can hide away (in Dick Cheney's bunker maybe?) and be prepped for 2 weeks until real interviews and of course the Biden debate.

Now that the infomercials by the parties are over, I suspect that in a week or two it will balance back out to a 2-3 point lead by Obama- about exactly where it was before the conventions. No real movement from there until the debates- which should be the most interesting debates this country has seen in a long time.
9.7.2008 2:13pm
Jim Anderson (www):
National polls are meaningless. Electoral votes are all that matter. Who's winning in the "battleground" states?
9.7.2008 2:15pm
rarango (mail):
Jim Anderson: Amen brother. the only purpose I can see in these national polls is for bloggers to make comments. They are at best impressionistic. Lets not waste our time with tracking polls, and instead look at battleground states.
9.7.2008 2:22pm
Jim Anderson (www):
Electoral-vote.com, for example, predicts a large Obama victory with the Dems picking up six new states. The latest results aren't in, so it'd be interesting to see if things have changed over the weekend.
9.7.2008 2:22pm
Bob from Ohio (mail):

National polls are meaningless. Electoral votes are all that matter. Who's winning in the "battleground" states?


All polls are meaningless at this point. Come late September, they have some use. Even national polls.

There won't be any new "battleground" polls yet.

The only thing worrisome for Obama in Rasmussen is the 81% Dem vote. That is kinda low. Not fatally low but worrisome.
9.7.2008 2:24pm
Angus:
On the other hand, state polls also get driven by the national ones. If McCain were to take a sizable lead, the national media coverage of it would convince some voters to switch to the "winning" side.
9.7.2008 2:24pm
Angus:

The only thing worrisome for Obama in Rasmussen is the 81% Dem vote. That is kinda low. Not fatally low but worrisome.

Worrisome in a couple ways.
#1. Worrisome to Obama, because it is hard to win unless you get around 90+% of your base, or an awful lot of independents.
#2. Worrisome to McCain, because if half of those 19% "come home" to Obama, that would tip the race substantially to Obama. And it's easier to win back your base than it is to win over converts.
9.7.2008 2:29pm
Hoosier:
"McCain had been running a largely good campaign,"

Which is the other big surprise. In terms of running a tight, disciplined campaign organization, I was expecting this to be like having Jack Kemp at the top of the ticket. (I still miss Mike Murphy, though. If you write him to comment on something he writes or says, he emails back. How cool is that?)
9.7.2008 2:52pm
Hoosier:
"#2. Worrisome to McCain, because if half of those 19% "come home" to Obama, that would tip the race substantially to Obama. And it's easier to win back your base than it is to win over converts."

True. But the 'Palin Factor' is a big question mark. She is playing very well with working-class males. (My trip to the barber shop on Friday was quite enlightening on this--Guys saying they will vote GOP now. They like the VPILF.)

Also, watch Catholic organizations. If there is a substantial campaign to educate Catholics about Obama's position on "accidentally-born fetuses," he will not be able to bring home the blue-collar undecideds in, say, Mahoning County, Ohio.

The MSM is accused of liberal bias, and I can't see how anyone can deny that there is something there. But far more that bias, they suffer from ignorance of religion, and the role it plays in politics. They just aren't interested. The NYT coverage of religious issues is just horrible. They'll never understand what abortion means to the majority of Catholics in this country.
9.7.2008 2:59pm
Hoosier:
BTW--Hillary received 72% of the non-Hispanic Catholic vote in the Dem Penn primary. Not a worry for you guys?
9.7.2008 3:08pm
David Warner:
"True. But the 'Palin Factor' is a big question mark. She is playing very well with working-class males. (My trip to the barber shop on Friday was quite enlightening on this--Guys saying they will vote GOP now. They like the VPILF.)"

I think its deeper than that. She's the prototypical alpha female coming out on the beta male side. The social norm of lifelong monogamy can be understood (among many, many ways) as a compact between alpha females and beta males to restrict the reproductive opportunities of the alpha male to the alpha females, thereby giving the beta males an opportunity to reproduce at all. History is replete with examples, from the early bankrolling of Christianity by alpha females to the emergence of alternative arrangements as beta female power has grown.

I'm a big fan of the former arrangement due to its historically demonstrated benefits for society as a whole, but beta females, perhaps understandably, don't always agree, hence the expressed distaste for Palin from those quarters.
9.8.2008 3:13am