I was under the impression that women tended to oppose same-sex marriage less than men did; consider, for instance, the July 13-27, 2003 poll noted here, in which oppose exceeded favor among women by 12%, and among men by 17%. This ABC News poll reflects the same gender gap.
It was striking, then, to see the opposite breakdown in the L.A. Times California poll. The question,
A proposed amendment to the state's Constitution that may appear on the November ballot would reverse the court's decision and state that marriage is only between a man and a woman. If the election were held today, would you vote for or against the amendment?
Men would vote for by a 43%-41% margin; women would vote for by a 58%-31% margin. As to "Do you agree or disagree with Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's decision to respect the court's ruling and not support a ballot initiative to define marriage as only between a man and a woman?," the disagree-agree margin for women is 7% higher than for men. As to "Do you believe that same-sex relationships between consenting adults are morally wrong, or do you believe that it is not a moral issue?," the wrong-not wrong margin for women is 13% higher than for men (though both sexes are more likely to say "not wrong" than wrong). As to "As long as two people are in love and are committed to each other, it doesn't matter if they are a same-sex couple or a heterosexual couple?," the disagree-agree margin for women is 5% higher than for men (though again both sexes are more likely to say "agree"); this last difference is likely statistically insignificant.
Oddly, as to "approve or disapprove of the California Supreme Court's decision last week to allow same-sex marriage in California," the margin is the same, 53%-42% among women and 51%-40% among men.
So some possibilities: (1) California women and men are quite different in this respect from women and men nationwide. (2) The poll was badly conducted. (3) People's views are so soft on the subject that the results aren't terribly reliable (though why would that affect the gender gap?). (4) Two or more of the above.
Related Posts (on one page):
- Field Poll Shows Majority Support Among California Registered Voters for Same-Sex Marriage:
- Men, Women, and Same-Sex Marriage:
- "Californians Barely Reject Gay Marriage,"
2) IIRC, men are homosexual by about 4x as often as women are (though I don't know what, if any, population difference exists in california). Women, though bisexual more than men, still are non-heterosexual less than men (i.e., bi women + gay women < bi men + straight men). So, because the linked portion of the poll doesn't disaggregate straight from gay, men will be getting a statistical bump from that as well.
A lot of strange stuff in this poll. For instance: "Democrats and independents narrowly backed the amendment despite their support for the court action. [...] Democratic women, meanwhile, approved of both the court decision and the amendment."
I can understand opposing the amendment while opposing the court decision, based on views about the proper role of the judiciary. But why would people support the court decision but also support the amendment?
The poll also found that 18-34 year olds are the most likely to find same-sex relationships morally wrong. And it found respondents evenly split as to whether they agreed with Schwarzenegger's decision to support the ballot initiative.
All of which seems anomalous.
Maybe, but adoption and military service are much less closely connected to religious precepts than mariage. It could well be the case that women are on average more tolerant of gays than men are except in those areas where doing so clashes most directly with religious beliefs.
I think what this shows is that the issue of SSM is very much in flux, and people don't really know how to formulate an opinion (there is a high percentage of "I don't knows" to some questions). They probably are conflicted, and that evidence of their conflicting answers.
That being said, it's possible that if California is less religious than the rest of the country as a whole, women's religiosity becomes more important in California.
Interestingly, men benefit more from modern marriage than do women - men live longer, healthier, and happier lives, while women don't necessarily get even one of those three. Generally, the benefit is the greatest for women with the lowest earning potential, who benefit the most from the second income.
<blockquote>
I can understand opposing the amendment while opposing the court decision, based on views about the proper role of the judiciary. But why would people support the court decision but also support the amendment?
</blockquote>
One plausible reason would be if you thought that the language of the California constitution did create a right to same-sex marriage, but as a policy matter you didn't believe that it should. This is akin to taking the view that Roe v. Wade was bad constitutional law, but that a constitutional amendment protecting the right to abortion would be a good idea.
That said, I agree with you that few actual voters think about constitutions in this way, and so I agree that the effect you cite is another sign that the poll is screwy.
"Whites are evenly divided on the subject, whereas Latinos are opposed and blacks are fiercely opposed."
Perhaps the polling results in California are a result of the larger Hispanic population in California. This would also require that Hispanic women are opposed to gay marriage more strongly than White women relative to men.
Certainly, California polls somewhat differently than the nation on this question. In general terms, the state is more supportive of same-sex marriage than the nation. California’s demographics (more Latinos, as you note) and politics (an uncomfortable “U” shaped distribution that skews toward Democrats, but not necessarily the liberal) is one reason why California looks different. The concentrations of (out) gays and lesbian and general cultural distinctions likely contribute the differences too.
What confounds me (and perhaps Prof. Volokh too) is that this poll is strikingly at odds with other polls taken this decade in California.
Like the nation, women in California have consistently been more supportive of same-sex marriage than men. Throughout the decade the spread has been quite pronounced: 8 to 10 percent between the sexes. While California’s Latino population continues to grow (more rapidly than non-Hispanic whites), nothing has happened in the past few years to suggest that ethnicity would perturb the result.
Nor do I see any reason to think this is a reaction to the recent Calif. Supreme Court opinion. It’s common to see some retreat from support for same-sex marriage when there’s some news that might stir the electorate’s passion. We saw something of that sort in wake of S.F. Mayor Newsom’s gay marriage stunt in 2004. While the overall level of support may diminish (presumably because respondents react negatively to what the mayor or Supreme Court did, rather than the substance of the question), the differences between men and women, young and old, Hispanics and non-Hispanics remained quite constant.
The variations in support among gender and age described in this L.A. Times survey stand out as anomalies. I’m increasingly convinced that’s exactly what they are.
We now return you to your regularly-scheduled fact-free speculation frenzy. Carry on, gents.