Kos does well predicting the NC and Indiana primaries.--

Actual Results: Clinton by 2% in Indiana and Obama by 14% in NC.

Here are Kos's predictions:


Clinton: 51.1 percent

Obama: 48.9 percent

(Clinton +2.2)

North Carolina:

Obama: 56.1 percent

Clinton: 43.9 percent

(Obama +12.2)

LM (mail):
Kos also had an interesting take on why Clinton shouldn't drop out right away:

If Clinton were to drop out this week, we'd face an uncomfortable situation in West Virginia, with Clinton likely crushing Obama. That would look terrible for the presumptive nominee.

Better than that would be to garner enough superdelegate commitments this week, so that Oregon can push Obama past 2,024. That way, it isn't the supers who clinch it for Obama, but actual voters.
5.7.2008 4:01am
Mr. Bingley (www):
After 2 years of endless campaigning we've got 3 very unsatisfactory candidates from the 2 parties...and still six months 'til the election.

5.7.2008 8:18am
runape (mail):
So much for your panning Zogby.
5.7.2008 10:34am
The reflexive cynicism every time a presidential election rolls around gets a bit grating. I can't recall having two better candidates than McCain and Obama in my lifetime. I'm looking forward with genuine interest to the general election debates, which in the past I've never actually watched.
5.7.2008 10:44am
James Lindgren (mail):

Yep. Zogby did well, though he had Obama up by 2% in Indiana.
5.7.2008 10:52am
Mr. Bingley (www):
I can't recall having two better candidates than McCain and Obama in my lifetime.

A RINO vs a guy who's never even so much as led a Boy Scout Troop?
5.7.2008 11:04am
Randy R. (mail):
Oh, how we long for the days of papa Ronnie!
5.7.2008 11:19am
Daniel Chapman (mail):
I think the reflexive cynicism is just a side-effect of the fact that it's easier to be against a politician than it is to be for him (or her.) It's easy to turn the guy that lost into some sort of perfect fantasy-candidate, but we're stuck with the reality of the one who actually wins.

I didn't want McCain to win the nomination, but I have no doubt people would be equally cynical if any of the other candidates had won. (I liked Thompson)

The exception, of course, is Obama, but that's only because he TRANSCENDS mere politics!
5.7.2008 11:41am
Bart (mail):
It will be interesting to see if kos is too far gone for Obama to take a look at the internals of the voting and apply them to the fall.

Obama's base has narrowed to just rich white liberals, nearly all blacks and young people.

The Reagan Dems have almost totally abandoned Obama and they are openly telling pollsters they will vote McCain in the fall.

Rich white liberals, nearly all blacks and young people will allow you to squeak into the Dem nomination, but do not make up anything close to a majority of the general electorate. This is a return to the minority coalition assembled by the Dems in 72, 80, 84 and 88.

Bill Clinton brought back many of the Reagan Dems in the 90s, but the 2008 Dem uncivil war may have driven them away all over again.
5.7.2008 12:29pm
Lousy or not, these 3, and now these 2, are the best candidates who seriously ran. If you feel tempted to speak against McCain or Obama, consider that we might have had a Romney/Edwards race instead.
5.7.2008 12:32pm
Daniel Chapman (mail):
You think it's the heated primary that's driven them away instead of Obama's politics?
5.7.2008 12:33pm
rarango (mail):
Guest101--why am I guessing you are under 30? :)

Truman-Dewey and Stevenson-Eisenhower were awfully good nominees I thought. And in terms of choice, Carter and Reagan were certainly a choice and not an echo.

count me among the cynical--these are three turkeys, one of whom will be elected president of the US in November barring some major unforseen developments (perhaps McCain could talk Hillary into running as his VP, for example--how would that change the caluculus?)
5.7.2008 12:40pm
Bart (mail):
Daniel Chapman (mail):\

You think it's the heated primary that's driven them away instead of Obama's politics?

I do not expect over half of Hilary voters to go McCain as they are threatening, but Obama has had a problem attracting the Reagan Dems for months now in head to head polling against McCain.

Back in February, the Reagan Dems were undecided but leaning towards McCain.

By April, the Reagan Dems were making their decisions and breaking for McCain.

Indeed, it is questionable whether the Reagan Dems ever supported Obama.

The usual pattern is that the Dem candidate enjoys a large nominal lead in the polling this early in the cycle and that lead largely or completely disappears as fall approaches. Obama is in the unenviable position of being behind in the spring and being in the unenviable position of having to woo his own base to stay viable.
5.7.2008 12:57pm
No disrepect intended, but I don't think McCain has what it takes to bring out the Republican vote in sufficient numbers, while the Obamans are filled "with a passionate intensity."

Put this in your prediction book. Obama will win and have a spectacularly unsuccessful presidency. Assuming he is renominated, he will be swept aside by Bobby Jindal.
5.7.2008 1:27pm
runape (mail):
"Zogby did well, though he had Obama up by 2% in Indiana."

Within the margin of error, no doubt.
5.7.2008 2:05pm
So Zogby did OK. So what? His record is atrocious.
5.7.2008 2:46pm
Bart: Polling aside, the fundamentals are awful for the Republicans. An unpopular war and an economy in the tank will translate into a defeat for the incumbent party in the fall.
5.7.2008 2:56pm

Guest101--why am I guessing you are under 30? :)

Exactly 30-- Truman and Eisenhower were a bit before my time.
5.7.2008 3:33pm
rarango (mail):
Thanks, Guest. Given your youth, your assessment about exciting candidates is spot on! Happy Birthday, BTW. :)
5.7.2008 4:32pm
Bart (mail):

Bart: Polling aside, the fundamentals are awful for the Republicans. An unpopular war and an economy in the tank will translate into a defeat for the incumbent party in the fall.

The Dems are the incumbent party. Mr. Bush is not running again and the swing voters do not link McCain with Bush. Take a look at the Democracy Corps polling concerning this question to which I linked in my last post.

I expect the Dems to make solid gains in the Senate and keep its slim majority in the House. But, I am having a very hard time seeing Obama winning more than 45-47% of the vote this fall, perhaps closer if the conservatives stay home on McCain. I just do not see from where Obama gets the votes to assemble a majority.
5.7.2008 5:32pm
Thanks rarango. My birthday was a few months ago; I didn't mean "exactly" as quite that exact, only that I am currently 30 years old rather than under (or over) 30.
5.7.2008 5:47pm
LM (mail):
Now that you're over 30, learn to use "exactly" the way we old-timers do, which is... I'm sorry, was that me talking?
5.7.2008 6:13pm
Bart: Despite what you may think, the incumbent party is the party that holds the White House. The fact that voters are not currently associating McCain and Bush says nothing about public perceptions after a determined Democratic campaign over the next six months. You're overconfident because Democratic infighting has, to this point, allowed McCain to campaign essentially unhindered, without serious criticism from his left. I think you'll be surprised by the damage a united opposition will do to him in short order.
5.7.2008 6:43pm
Morat20 (mail):
Bart: You're making the rather....poor....assumption that primary polling translates out to general election polling.

A primary is a race in which two members of the same party are running against each other, being voted on by a self-selected subsample of the voting populace at large.

A general election -- two candidates from two different parties, each being voted on by an entirely different self-selected sample.
5.7.2008 8:19pm
LM (mail):
But he's right about the trend of Democratic presidential candidates to poll high early and watch their lead evaporate. Yes, Obama will get a bounce and McCain will take his hits, but despite everything that should favor Democrats this cycle, I refuse to be sanguine about November until November.
5.7.2008 8:22pm
A good chunk of the people who will vote for Obama in the fall passionately support him, while a good chunk of people who will vote for McCain in the fall are lukewarm toward him.

But a passionate vote counts the same as a lukewarm or hold-my-nose vote. McCain will win because he will have more votes in the key states, even though Obama's voters will be much more disappointed by his loss than McCain's voters would be by his defeat.

One citizen, one vote.
5.7.2008 9:00pm