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Indiana Too Close to Call [-- Clinton wins].--

1:12am ET UPDATE: Hillary Clinton has won Indiana by over 22,000 votes with all counties reporting.

12:50am ET UPDATE: This is the same model I used to predict that George Allen's lead over Jim Webb would disappear on election night 2006, long before the TV stations reached the same conclusion.

12:40am ET UPDATE: With 95% reporting, Clinton leads by less than 17,000 votes. If the remaining precincts break in the same way as the existing precincts in those counties (and Michael Barone suggests they won't), Obama would pick up 18,400 votes (not including over ten thousand uncounted absentee ballots), leading to a 1,770 vote victory for Obama. This analysis includes Hamilton, Hancock, Lake, Marion, and Monroe Counties, but excludes Union County, which has not yet reported.

After midnight ET, Barack Obama is closing the gap. If the missing precincts follow the rest of the precincts in their counties, Obama will win.

Obama has conceded to Clinton and Clinton has claimed victory, but all this may be premature.

Fearless:
If Clinton loses, hopefully she leaves the race.
5.7.2008 1:27am
Gulf Coast Bandit (mail):
"It takes a little time. We want to be sure that every vote is counted fair and right," he said. "I just talked to the director out there and they are working like junkyard dogs to get that done as soon as possible. They are taking some time but I told them to do it right. That's what taking the time."

So says the mayor of Gary, Indiana
. They're doing it "right," that's for sure...
5.7.2008 1:30am
Gaius Marius:
Who are they kidding in Indiana?!?!? They're stuffing the ballot boxes with votes for Barack Hussein Mohamad Obama in those Indiana suburbs right outside of Chicago.
5.7.2008 1:38am
SIG357:
I don't have a dog in the Democratic race, but I'm curious - how come the liberal commenters at VC are all in Obamas corner?
5.7.2008 1:40am
Randy R. (mail):
So now it becomes a real campaign between Obama and McCain. I suppose NOW we will be seeing the same scrutiny of McCain's friends in the pulpits.

Or will the silence be that deafening?
5.7.2008 1:40am
Randy R. (mail):
Good thing Indiana has that new law requireing voter ID that was upheld by the Supreme Court. Turns out a number of catholic nuns were turned away from the polls for insufficient ID.

The republic is now saved from ballot stuffing nuns.
5.7.2008 1:42am
Gaius Marius:
I suppose NOW we will be seeing the same scrutiny of McCain's friends in the pulpits.

McCain's friends in the pulpits are not as retarded as the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.
5.7.2008 1:42am
SIG357:
Turns out a number of catholic nuns were turned away from the polls for insufficient ID.

You don't think the law should apply to everyone, even Catholic nuns? In this country, we have a little thing called "separation of church and state".
5.7.2008 1:45am
Oren:
Who are they kidding in Indiana?!?!? They're stuffing the ballot boxes with votes for Barack Hussein Mohamad Obama in those Indiana suburbs right outside of Chicago.
Yeah, I'm sure Barack Hussein bin Laden Mohadmmed Al-Zahiri Satlin Lucifer Obama will win in the end.

It's a shame for John Hitler McCain too . . .
5.7.2008 1:46am
Gulf Coast Bandit (mail):
Randy R:
Context would be nice.

"The nuns, all in their 80s or 90s, did not have drivers' licenses, and some showed up with outdated passports. Sister Julie McGuire, who turned the nuns away, said they hadn't been given provisional ballots because it would be difficult to get the nuns to a motor vehicle branch for non-driver ID's in time for the 10-day window alloted for provisional IDs."
5.7.2008 1:47am
Oren:
Sig, obviously the law should apply to everyone, including nuns. I think he was just making fun of Posner's ludicrous assertion that no upstanding person can get by in life without ID.
5.7.2008 1:48am
U.Va. 3L:
McCain's friends in the pulpits are not as retarded as the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

This kind of stuff is okay under the Volokh comment policy? Wright is "retarded"?

I mean, I guess it's a concession that John Hagee is retarded as well, but still.
5.7.2008 1:48am
torrentprime (mail):
GM: oh, no, not at all. Blaming Katrina on teh gays is SO much more rational of a position to hold. Oh, and calling the Catholic church the whore of Babylon. Not retarded at all.
5.7.2008 1:49am
Oren:
I should add that I don't mean to single out Posner. There are a lot of folks with the misapprehension that it is impossible to get by without photo id.
5.7.2008 1:49am
swg:
I suspect VC readers are mostly Obama supporters because VC readers are younger, wealthier, and more educated than the average voter. Clinton wins the old, the poor, and the uneducated - the kind of people who think a three-month gas tax holiday is a good idea.
5.7.2008 1:50am
SIG357:
Oren, I was making fun of him. I thought you'd have picked up on that.
5.7.2008 1:50am
alan:
"McCain's friends in the pulpits are not as retarded as the Rev. Jeremiah Wright."

No. They are. It's just that they're not HIS pastor. And that people are used to right wing fire-breathers. Wright was an eye-opener for most of white America.
5.7.2008 1:50am
Oren:
torrentprime: not to mention considering children's fantasy literature "witchcraft", and believing in miraculous healing.
5.7.2008 1:52am
SIG357:
Clinton wins the old, the poor, and the uneducated - the kind of people who think a three-month gas tax holiday is a good idea.


I read the lefty blogs, both Clinton and Obama, and this is EXACTLY the sort of thing the Hillarions cite as reasons why they'll vote McCain instead of Obama.



younger, wealthier, and more educated than the average voter

Not only that, but I'm stunningly good looking as well.
5.7.2008 1:53am
Gaius Marius:
GM: oh, no, not at all. Blaming Katrina on teh gays is SO much more rational of a position to hold. Oh, and calling the Catholic church the whore of Babylon. Not retarded at all.

Torrentprime, when you learn to spell, I will consider taking your remarks somewhat seriously.
5.7.2008 1:53am
Gaius Marius:
Oren, I was making fun of him. I thought you'd have picked up on that.

SIG357, you expect too much from Oren.
5.7.2008 1:54am
Gaius Marius:
Those endorsements by Hamas, Hezbollah, and President Ahmadinejad are sure going to come in handy for Barack Hussein Mohamad Obama in the general election.
5.7.2008 1:56am
Cornellian (mail):
Spelling it "teh" instead of "the" is not a spelling error, it's a slang term very common among those young enough to regard text messaging as a major mode of communication.
5.7.2008 2:01am
JB:
Sig357,
More fairly, I give 3 reasons:

1) Hillary's record is among the most unlibertarian of all Senators, including on petty issues where there's no overbearing public interest to call upon (violence in video games, etc). Thus, the libertarian democrats, who are more likely to visit a libertarian conservative blog, hate her.
2) Hillary's weaker on the internet. She's got fewer and less well-established blogs. The population of internet liberals who support her is simply smaller than that which supports Obama.
3) Obama's better with liberal-leaning Independents, who are more likely to read blogs to the right of their views, like this one. Hillary's better with hard Democrats, who wouldn't come over here and engage the commenters so readily.

Those are my theories. I visit lots of non-election-related/nonpartisan/nondemocrat blogs, and I've noticed the rising tide of Obama supporters vis a vis Hillary supporters as the spring has gone on. It's definitely a phenomenon, and I think that's the cause.
5.7.2008 2:01am
Cornellian (mail):
Actually Gaius, I think they're endorsing John Mohamad McCain instead. Perhaps you've heard of him?
5.7.2008 2:02am
James Lindgren (mail):
Gaius Marius:

You have made your point about Barack Obama's middle names many times.

Personally, I would appreciate it if you referred to him by either or both of the names that he actually uses: Barack or Obama.
5.7.2008 2:12am
swg:

I read the lefty blogs, both Clinton and Obama, and this is EXACTLY the sort of thing the Hillarions cite as reasons why they'll vote McCain instead of Obama.

What? They'll vote McCain instead of Obama because they're old, poor, and uneducated? Do you mean: they'll vote McCain because they think Obama is an elitist? I guess because people like me prefer him to Hillary and share facts about her support in a way that sounds elitist? But that strikes me as a pretty unintelligent reason to reject, in voting for McCain, the principles that likely led you to vote for Hillary in the first place (the views most democrats hold).
5.7.2008 2:22am
LM (mail):
I can't speak for anyone else, but when I'm not exposed to Barack's image or voice, I find myself drawn to a Rasputin-like aura emanating from this site.
5.7.2008 2:23am
Ramza:
NYT just called it saying 100% of precincts are reported.

Clinton
638,192

Obama
615,753

50.9% vs 49.1%
5.7.2008 2:26am
chuckc (mail):

Sister Julie McGuire, who turned the nuns away, said they hadn't been given provisional ballots because it would be difficult to get the nuns to a motor vehicle branch for non-driver ID's in time for the 10-day window alloted for provisional IDs


This has to be the stupidest excuse I have ever heard (or the best PR stunt ever)

Sister McGuire, if you are working an election, it is YOUR JOB to issue a provisional ballot. It is not your place to decide that a voter would find it difficult to complete the provisional ballot procedure.
5.7.2008 2:27am
Cornellian (mail):
CNN has a nifty delegate calculator page. You have a slider bar for each of the remaining contests so you can pick your predicted percentage of the vote in each of them and it then updates Obama's and Clinton's delegate totals accordingly. This calculator indicates that even if Clinton won every remaining contest by 20 point margins (i.e. 60/40) she still could not catch him in total numbers of elected delegates.

In other words, unless she stages a coup by superdelegate, this race is over.
5.7.2008 2:36am
LM (mail):
Maybe by "difficult" she meant she had no intention of driving them.
5.7.2008 2:36am
LM (mail):

In other words, unless she stages a coup by superdelegate, this race is over.

There are other ways to stage a coup.
5.7.2008 2:40am
Thorley Winston (mail) (www):
This has to be the stupidest excuse I have ever heard (or the best PR stunt ever)

Sister McGuire, if you are working an election, it is YOUR JOB to issue a provisional ballot. It is not your place to decide that a voter would find it difficult to complete the provisional ballot procedure.


My vote is for "stupidest and most obvious* PR stunt ever."

In fairness to Sister McGuire, it wasn't clear from the story whether she refused to issue them provisional ballots or they declined them because of the supposed difficulty in getting an ID within 10 days. Also apparently the other nuns spoke with this group "frequently about the need to get out to a Bureau of Motor Vehicle branch for their free ID."

* Someone appears to have realized that a dozen elderly nuns with walkers and wheelchairs makes a more sympathetic poster child than someone who registered to vote in two States while double-dipping on the homestead exemption for her property tax.
5.7.2008 3:02am
Oren:
Thorley, I think the point is amply made that there are reasonable, upstanding people that are burdened by the voter-id law. I don't think it's an unconstitutional burden, but I think those that imagine that everyone has a driver's license live in some fantasy world.

FWIW, I don't consider myself an Obama supporter - I was tepid on him from the get-go and preferred Dodd. I'm settling for Obama (and I'd settle for Clinton too, if I had to).
5.7.2008 3:21am
chuckc (mail):
Mapquest results for traveling from Saint Mary's College to the South Bend Bureau of Motor Vehicles office:

Estimated Time: 14 minutes
Estimated Distance: 11.61 miles
5.7.2008 3:23am
NatSecLawGuy:
The nun situation is more a sign of the education of poll workers than of the inadequacy of a law. I agree with ChuckC it is not the poll workers job to weigh the feasibility of a possible remedy. Even with good laws you are going to have some outliers that create bad anecdotes in their implementation.
5.7.2008 9:17am
anonthu:
Gaius Marius:

You have made your point about Barack Obama's middle names many times.


Agreed. I said it on another thread, and I'll say it again: I'm not voting for Obama, but it's really lame.
5.7.2008 10:27am
Michael Edward McNeil (mail) (www):
"Teh" is an obvious typo (not deliberate misspelling) for "the", where the flying fingers hit the pair "he" in the wrong order -- indeed, Microsoft Word automatically changes it to "the" when you type it wrong that way.
5.7.2008 10:38am
anonthu:
Also, Hagee is not going to be the McCain-slaying silver bullet that many Obama supporters seem to think he is...
1) it was obviously a purely political move: to gain an endorsement from a vocal faction of the right
2) Hagee is not McCain's pastor, mentor, crazy uncle, etc; they had pretty much no relationship before the Texas primary season
3) endorsements do NOT necessarily that the candidate holds the views of the endorser. Examples: Robertson's endorsement of Giuliani, Hamas' "endorsement" of Obama
4) as alan mentioned, people ARE pretty used to the extreme elements of the religious right; most recognize that those of Hagee's stripe constitute a minority
5) IMHO, Hagee's rhetoric has been nowhere as vile as Wright's, but obviously opinions will differ on this. As an aside, I would be willing to bet that there are more black folks at Hagee's church than white folks at Wright's church

In hindsight, seeking Hagee's endorsement was foolish of McCain - it was clearly unnecessary to win the nomination, and people will try to turn it into another Wright situation. But do people really think McCain has subscribed to Hagee's beliefs for the past 2 months or 20 years?
5.7.2008 10:48am
JosephSlater (mail):
No, "teh gay" is common slang among the young folk. I don't know its origins, but I've seen it repeatedly on these here internets.

Now, want to address the substance of the beliefs of Hagee, with bonus points for explaining why McCain said he was "honored" to have Hagee's endorsement?
5.7.2008 11:35am
rarango (mail):
Isnt there some kind of internet rule (eg, Godwin's Law) that refers to referencing a spelling error, or more likely, typo, when criticizing a fellow poster?
5.7.2008 1:02pm
rarango (mail):
And before the hammer falls on me, Isnt should, of course, be "Isn't." Phew
5.7.2008 1:03pm
anonthu:
Now, want to address the substance of the beliefs of Hagee, with bonus points for explaining why McCain said he was "honored" to have Hagee's endorsement?

Pure political pandering - he was seeking the endorsement at some misguided attempt to get a faction of the religious right. In this context, what was he going to say? That he was ashamed of the endorsement? (You and I might say "yes", but apparently McCain felt strongly about getting the endorsement).
5.7.2008 1:31pm
Jonathan F.:
Isnt there some kind of internet rule (eg, Godwin's Law) that refers to referencing a spelling error, or more likely, typo, when criticizing a fellow poster?

Not a typo.
5.7.2008 2:03pm
The General:
having a college or graduate degree may make one smarter, but it certainly guarantees that the left-wing radicals in academia have had more time to brainwash you. Thus, college-educated Obamacidal maniacs.
5.7.2008 3:38pm
rarango (mail):
The General: I am not sure if a degree makes one "smarter;" It does, hosever, make one more educated. I am not sure there is a 1.0 correlation between "smarter" and "education."
5.7.2008 4:09pm
JosephSlater (mail):
I wrote: Now, want to address the substance of the beliefs of Hagee, with bonus points for explaining why McCain said he was "honored" to have Hagee's endorsement?

Annonthu wrote: Pure political pandering - he was seeking the endorsement at some misguided attempt to get a faction of the religious right. In this context, what was he going to say? That he was ashamed of the endorsement? (You and I might say "yes", but apparently McCain felt strongly about getting the endorsement).


So it's harmless political pandering when McCain DOESN'T disassociate himself from a hateful nutbag, but it Wright (a nutbag himself) will really hurt Obama even though Barrack disassociate himself from Wright?

You could be right -- certainly, parts of the U.S. electorate have given some Republicans passes on their associations with hateful idiots like Falwell and Robertson in the past. We'll see how people treat Obama -- and why -- on this issue. The encouraging evidence from last night's primaries is that it's not going to be a big deal.
5.7.2008 5:04pm
anonthu:
@JosephSlater:

No, not "harmless", but there is a big difference between the associations of McCain/Hagee and Obama/Wright (my point #2 above). With Obama, we have the some possibilities:

1) he has never subscribed to Wright's beliefs, his association with Trinity church is entirely political
2) though mentored by Wright, he has never subscribed to Wright's beliefs, and was honestly surprised, shocked, saddened, etc. by recent statements
3) he used to subscribe to Wright's beliefs, but has since changed his mind
4) he subscribes to Wright's beliefs, but says otherwise in public

I don't think 4) is true, and there's nothing he's said to suggest 3) is true. 2) is closest to Obama's narrative, but I think it reflects very poorly on his judgment and powers of perception. In this scenario, I actually find 1) to be most defensible (he IS a politician after all), and pretty consistent with his rapid rise in politics.

So basically Obama/Wright and McCain/Hagee may be the same, but one is a close relationship over 20 years, the other is get-the-nomination-at-all-costs primary fodder
5.7.2008 6:30pm
anonthu:
Last post reminded of the recent joke:

Chicago and Mosul are similar in many ways, but there are still some important differences: One has crooked officials, violent gangs with their hooks into government and law enforcement, a culture of corruption that has resisted the central government's effects to clean it up, and wild-eyed religious leaders that preach a message of hate.

The other is a city in Iraq.
5.7.2008 6:32pm