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Recent developments in North Carolina Polls.--

A Rasmussen tracking poll on Monday in North Carolina found Obama had a 14% lead over Clinton. A Tuesday NC poll by Insider Advantage found a 2% lead for Clinton.

Despite all that has happened this week, I doubt that both of these polls are right. But things are probably quite fluid in NC.

Given how far behind Clinton is in the delegate count, I think that she must beat Obama in both NC and Indiana to have a non-trivial chance of winning the nomination.

The Unbeliever:
I predict tomorrow's poll will find John Edwards with a 3.5% lead over both candidates.

Seriously, has everyone forgotten the caveats the pundits and pollsters were tossing out back in January, that primary polling is notoriously volatile and unreliable?
5.1.2008 2:18am
Paul Milligan (mail) (www):
The beauty of the thing is :

Obama WILL be the nominee. For the simple fact that he WILL have the majority of both the popular vote and the elected delegate count. The Dem power structure simply DOES NOT DARE ignore that, take it away from the black man, and hand it to the white woman. There would be riots in the streets of Denver ( even more than are already planned ), and the black and youth and left-wing votes would stay home enmass in November, and the Democrat party would take 20 years or more to recover. They know this, and they are not that stupid. Better to cut their losses, take a loss this time around, and still exist to try again in 2012.

At the same time, the Wright stuff is TANKING Obama in EVERY demographic, but it CAN NOT hurt him enough to not go into Denver on top, as above. So, he will be wheeled into the General election, drooling about 'change' and wondering why he only polls 10 % or more behind McCain.

The funny thing is, they can't even blame it on the Republicans, or Whitey. They did it all to themselves.
5.1.2008 2:46am
Cornellian (mail):
Clinton would have to win every single remaining primary by landslide margins (like 70 - 30) and convince a bunch of superdelegates who have already declared for Obama to switch their vote, and somehow convince the party to move the goal posts post facto by seating the Florida and Michigan delegates in order for her to win.

In other words, she's not going to win the nomination and I think she knows that. She's not an idiot.
5.1.2008 3:14am
Paul Milligan (mail) (www):
It's been suggested that she's pulling a Tonya Harding on Obama so he can lose to McCain, so she gets another shot in 2012. But I don't buy it - if Obama loses, the Democrat party is going to universally say "A major factor in that, if not the determinative one, was the way Hillary knee-capped him in the primary", and they will NEVER permit her to be the nominee, ever. If he wins ( haha ), she can't oppose her own party's incumbent, so she's out until 2016, at which point she's too old.

The only answer I see to explain her is that she KNOWS this is her one and only shot, ever, she's blown over $ 100,000,000 so far on it, and she's not going to let it go until they drag it from her cold politically dead fingers in Denver.

The Clintons are well known for their avaricious lust for power, and their complete disregard for 'rules'.

Until Denver, Hillary will spend every moment of every day praying for another Rev. Wright, or maybe for Obama to turn up in Spitzer's callgirl's book, or a fatal car accident, or ANYTHING that helps coronate her, which she deeply believes is her destiny, her entitlement, and her right. She can not conceive, in her heart, of LOSING her one and only chance.
5.1.2008 4:33am
MXE (mail):
I keep hearing about Obama's sinking numbers, but I don't see any evidence for that on RealClearPolitics. Am I missing something?
5.1.2008 4:49am
Brian Mac:

I keep hearing about Obama's sinking numbers, but I don't see any evidence for that on RealClearPolitics. Am I missing something?

I think you are.
5.1.2008 7:24am
Gaius Marius:
Even if Barack Hussein Mohamad Obama wins the Democratic nomination for POTUS, Hillary Clinton will not lift a finger to help Obama in the general election and may even covertly undermine his campaign so she can make a run for the presidency in 2012.
5.1.2008 7:52am
Anon!:

I doubt that both of these polls are right.


You doubt that both Obama and Clinton are leading one another by 14% and 2%, respectively? Clearly nothing gets by you.
5.1.2008 9:44am
SIG357:
"Obama WILL be the nominee. For the simple fact that he WILL have the majority of both the popular vote and the elected delegate count."




I don't follow all this as closely as the many liberal Democrats here, but I've heard that Clinton is already ahead in the overall popular vote and that this lead is likely to increase.
5.1.2008 10:13am
Brian Mac:

I've heard that Clinton is already ahead in the overall popular vote

Only if you include the votes from Florida and Michigan. Including Florida is fair enough, but Obama wasn't on the ballot in Michigan.
5.1.2008 10:25am
VincentPaul (mail):
Did not Obama remove himself from the Michigan ballot?
5.1.2008 10:44am
Houston Lawyer:
Reminds me of the very funny SNL video of Barbara Bush removing Nancy Reagan from the White House (with Phil Hartman as Barbara). I have to agree that it is highly unlikely that Hillary will get the nomination. I also agree that she will fight, and fight as dirty as possible, until the bitter end. I am just waiting for the point where she has to be physically restrained from pushing Obama out of the way when he is trying to make his speech to accept the nomination.
5.1.2008 10:57am
Boynton Cousin:
At the same time, the Wright stuff is TANKING Obama in EVERY demographic, but it CAN NOT hurt him enough to not go into Denver on top, as above. So, he will be wheeled into the General election, drooling about 'change' and wondering why he only polls 10 % or more behind McCain.

Drooling? Isn't that verb more apt for the septuagenarian who can't keep the Sunni and Shia straight, babbles on about staying in Iraq for the next three generations (wait, that's not what I meant, it'll be like South Korea, honest!), and thinks a summer-long tax holiday solves high gas prices?

At any rate, even with Obama being hit from every angle, how come he's tied with McCain at the RCP GE polling average? Could it be... no one truly cares about Wright, Ayers, or any of these other non-issues? Nah, that wouldn't fit with the passion of those who want to keep the "Obama is a Muslim Hitler" meme going: SURELY every American must give a crap about lapel pins, right?!
5.1.2008 12:03pm
GV:
She's only ahead if you include the votes from Michigan and Florida, despite the fact that everyone knew that votes from those states wouldn't count. And Hillary never said word one about it until she knew it would benefit her. She is also only ahead if you don't count the numerous caucus states that don't release popular vote tallies. Once you estimate those states's popular votes, Obama is ahead, even if you include Michigan and Florida.
5.1.2008 12:04pm
Brian Mac:
That's it Boynton, rise above the fray!
5.1.2008 12:09pm
Paul Milligan (mail) (www):
" I am just waiting for the point where she has to be physically restrained from pushing Obama out of the way when he is trying to make his speech to accept the nomination."

I would suggest having some popcorn ready, just in case :-) I can see it now - Hillary pulling on one arm, Bill on the other, and Rev Wright saying 'Go for it, white folk, he diss'd me !' :-)
5.1.2008 12:10pm
Boynton Cousin:
Even us effete, wine-sipping, Volvo-driving elitists sometimes enjoy getting our hands dirty, Brian
5.1.2008 12:17pm
Buckland (mail):

It's been suggested that she's pulling a Tonya Harding on Obama so he can lose to McCain, so she gets another shot in 2012. But I don't buy it - if Obama loses, the Democrat party is going to universally say "A major factor in that, if not the determinative one, was the way Hillary knee-capped him in the primary", and they will NEVER permit her to be the nominee, ever.


Hillary knows that time heals wounds. Given another 4 years of Republican executive lots of democrats will be willing to forgive and forget. She would be the best chance to beat McCain; nothing else matters.
5.1.2008 12:28pm
Paul from Jefferson (mail):
You have to remember folks that Obama does not have/will not get a MAJORITY of the elected delegates and recorded vote. He will, at most, have a PLURALITY of each.
5.1.2008 12:30pm
wuzzagrunt (mail):
Whatever else Hillary has in her mind, we can only speculate. But the one lesson learned from her husband's presidency is that you can't win if you don't run. If Bill had listened to anyone who talked sense to him, he never would have announced his candidacy.

So if Obama's campaign implodes--and it will take a "live boy or a dead girl" type event to make that happen--Hillary will be there to pick up the pieces. McCain is as weak a Republican candidate as Bob Dole. It would be crazy for her to voluntarily drop out. She'll stay in just in case Obama wakes up dead one morning. I'm not suggesting that she knows something, but........
5.1.2008 12:32pm
Brian Mac:
Boynton:

How do you manage to pull off being an elitist and a Volvo owner?
5.1.2008 12:36pm
rarango (mail):
This thought came to me the other night (or perhaps it was one too many sazeracks:) Obama wins the democratic nomination; McCain asks Hillary to run as his VP candidate, wins the general, and McCain suffers an untimely end. HRC ends up as President. Nahhhh--it was the sazeracks.
5.1.2008 12:45pm
titus32:
Could it be... no one truly cares about Wright, Ayers, or any of these other non-issues?

In that case, no need to be hysterical, right?
5.1.2008 1:16pm
rarango (mail):
For those Obama supporters who keep wanting to talk about the issues, don't get your hopes up; issues don't matter all that much; they might play more of a role in the general, but the American people, I suspect, don't pay much attention to the issues--they look at more ephemeral things--trust, charisma, overall impression; yes, it is pledging alliegence and wearing lapel pins. Would that were not so, but it is.

So why does the Wright/Obama story have legs? I would submit it is not a guilt by association issue; rather, it is a guage of Obama's judgment (as is his associations with Rezko and Ayers). Should Obama get the nomination, you will, I suspect, see a whole lot more of the Wright sermons.
5.1.2008 1:42pm
MXE (mail):
<i> I keep hearing about Obama's sinking numbers, but I don't see any evidence for that on RealClearPolitics. Am I missing something?

I think you are.
</i>

Point. Good, I was sort of hoping I was missing something. :-)
5.1.2008 3:36pm
Smokey:
It's been suggested that she's pulling a Tonya Harding on Obama so he can lose to McCain, so she gets another shot in 2012. But I don't buy it
Why not? The Clintons did the same thing to Gore with their tepid support.
5.1.2008 3:51pm
Joe Kowalski (mail):

Why not? The Clintons did the same thing to Gore with their tepid support.

Gore wasn't too keen on getting hearty support from the Clintons either, and did a fair bit of work keeping them at arms reach away from his campaign. It's generally well known that Gore didn't exactly appreciate Hillary's role in the White House or Bill's more base proclivities, and thus calling the Gore-Clinton relationship strained is quite apt.
5.1.2008 4:33pm