The Houston Chronicle reports that a leading scientific expert on a potential link between hurricane activity and global warming may be reconsidering his views in light of subsequent research.
The hurricane expert, Kerry Emanuel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, unveiled a novel technique for predicting future hurricane activity this week. The new work suggests that, even in a dramatically warming world, hurricane frequency and intensity may not substantially rise during the next two centuries.(Hat tip: Prometheus)
The research, appearing in the March issue of Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, is all the more remarkable coming from Emanuel, a highly visible leader in his field and long an ardent proponent of a link between global warming and much stronger hurricanes. . .
"The results surprised me," Emanuel said of his work, adding that global warming may still play a role in raising the intensity of hurricanes. What that role is, however, remains far from certain.
I will be curious to see how Chris Mooney responds to this news. I greatly enjoyed his book on climate and hurriances, Storm World: Hurricanes, Politics, and the Battle over Global Warming, but he is more convinced there is a demonstrable warming-hurricane link than I have been.