S&P 500 has Second Worst Day Since Early 2003.--

According to final figures on Friday, the S&P 500 ended down 2.66%, edging out last Thursday's 2.64% drop for the second worst day in the S&P 500 since early 2003. The NASDAQ was down 2.51%; the Dow was down "only" 2.09%.

That means that for the year the S&P 500 is up only 1%, while the NASDAQ is up 4%, and the Dow is up 5.7%.

Looking back, the pattern of big down days over the last two weeks happens more often near market bottoms than market tops. In the past, when such a pattern has occurred after big runups in the market, sometimes it signals a temporary top (1987). Sometimes it signals a buying opportunity in an up market (1998).

Some commentators on TV have pushed for Fed Chair Bernanke to take a page from Greenspan's response to a similar mini-crisis in 1998, meeting with experts to assess the problems and assuring the markets that liquidity would be available if needed. As it now stands, the Fed still has an official slight bias toward fighting inflation by leaning toward tightening, though in action it is neutral. Most expect the Fed at least to go neutral officially next week, perhaps to a stated bias toward easing, though to do essentially nothing significant about interest rates in response to the spreading credit crunch.

ras (mail):
So ... if I follow this ... Bear Stearns played the leverage game, got in a spot of trouble such that they would really like interest rates to be lowered and ... that didn't look to be happening so ... influential figure that they are, they then talked of doom and gloom for all if rates don't go down soon.

Not sure how much trouble the overall market is in, but not as much as Bear Stearns, methinks.
8.3.2007 6:30pm
volokh watcher (mail):
should it be "Second Worst Day"?
8.3.2007 8:49pm
Dan Simon (mail) (www):
Looking back, the pattern of big down days over the last two weeks happens more often near market bottoms than market tops.

Well, then, I guess the Fed's off the hook--we can all just leave it to the market to provide the next big infusion of liquidity into the economy.

Right?
8.4.2007 12:53am
MBradley (mail):
The Fed at this point has zero ability to ease interest rates or infuse liquidity into a marketplace that's the result of 5 continuous years of hyperliquidity. The US$ is falling off a cliff, and any hint of lowering rates could trigger a huge surge of dollar repatriation by the Chinese, Arabs and everyone else overseas who've been vacuuming up our public and corporate debt, with consequent price inflation that could easily dwarf the asset inflation we've seen since 2002.

The Fed can't raise rates without exacerbating the credit crunch, even as the leading economic indicators continue to trend downward, and they can't lower rates without destroying whatever value the greenback still has, so they will do nothing.
8.4.2007 3:25am
Bill Harshaw (mail) (www):
Is a signal a "signal" if it sometimes means "buy" and sometimes "sell"?
8.4.2007 11:34am
Gaius Marius:
We need to continue letting the air out of the real estate bubble and let the market run its course. Short term pain is better than the decade long stagnation Japan endured.
8.4.2007 12:31pm