The Volokh Conspiracy - Ridiculous Prediction of the Week:

Washington Post: "George Mason University's Stephen Fuller called up a PowerPoint slide predicting that in 2057, the average annual household income for the region will be $1,307,000.

Whoo hoo! That sounded great. Then he pointed out that in 50 years, the average Washington area house will cost a whopping $14,061,000."

Putting aside the absurdity of trying to predict wages and housing prices fifty years out, I'd love to see the assumptions that allow housing prices to be eleven times average household earnings. Are long term interest rates expected to decline to 2%?

I'd have thought Fuller would have gotten out of the prediction business given that he was quoted in Fall 2005 with regard to the D.C. area housing market as follows: "In a nutshell, you couldn't be in a better market. If you're worried about some bubble, or slow down, or something that's evil, just put yourself in any other market."

	[David Bernstein, June 1, 2007 at 12:35pm] Trackbacks Ridiculous Prediction of the Week: Washington Post: "George Mason University's Stephen Fuller called up a PowerPoint slide predicting that in 2057, the average annual household income for the region will be $1,307,000. Whoo hoo! That sounded great. Then he pointed out that in 50 years, the average Washington area house will cost a whopping $14,061,000." Putting aside the absurdity of trying to predict wages and housing prices fifty years out, I'd love to see the assumptions that allow housing prices to be eleven times average household earnings. Are long term interest rates expected to decline to 2%? I'd have thought Fuller would have gotten out of the prediction business given that he was quoted in Fall 2005 with regard to the D.C. area housing market as follows: "In a nutshell, you couldn't be in a better market. If you're worried about some bubble, or slow down, or something that's evil, just put yourself in any other market."