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Time for an Open Thread:
January 1 is always a quiet day for blogging. What's on your mind?
Guest12345:
Funny to hear someone who makes more than $200K/yr in a job that he can keep until he quits (well past the usual retirement age for Americans), complaining about not being paid enough.
1.1.2007 5:54pm
Glenn W. Bowen (mail):
I wanna know how Mike Bloomberg can send someone to a gun store to make a straw buy, and not be actually committing the crime of a straw buy.

I don't know who his "agents" are that have done this.

Similar case- reporter for the WaPo went to a gun show, bought illegal ammunition- pistol ammo for an FN Herstal that is barred from public sale (there is legal ammo for the gun, also).

1)go to a gun show

2)knowingly purchase illegal ammunition

3)gun shows routinely have a marked presence of uniformed law enforcement- knowingly buy illegal ammo, then walk right by the cops so the reporter can write an article about the sale.

Why isn't the reporter charged?
1.1.2007 5:55pm
Sean O'Hara (mail):
It's a well known "fact" that celebrities die in groups of three with some sort of connection between them. So what's the connection between James Brown, Gerald Ford, and Saddam Hussein?
1.1.2007 6:15pm
Perseus (mail):
The chief justice's complaint about salaries brings to mind Ben Franklin's caution against "making our posts of honor, places of profit. ...indeed in all cases of public service the less the profit the greater the honor." The members of the judiciary should consider themselves to be merely comfortable but highly honored.
1.1.2007 6:19pm
Paxti:
What's on my mind? Federalism. Apparently it's on everyone else's mind too. Six blogs, dozens of posts, and hundreds &hundreds of comments later, who won the Althouse/Goldberg smackdown?

My money's on Jacob Levy, though I thought there were many great posts.
1.1.2007 6:25pm
Cornellian (mail):
The chief justice's complaint about salaries brings to mind Ben Franklin's caution against "making our posts of honor, places of profit."

No one with the qualifications to be on the Supreme Court would regard the salary Supreme Court justices receive as anything resembling "profit." How much did Roberts make as a partner at Hogan &Hartson before getting appointed? Five times as much as he makes now? Ten times as much? Twenty times?

I do not want to see a federal judiciary filled with nothing but former government lawyers and law professors. I don't think federal judges should be paid at a level commensurate with partners at large law firms. There are non-monetary advantages to being a judge, including much greater prestige and lifetime tenure. However, when the judge's job pays $200,000 a year and the partner is making $2 million a year the gap is too large. A judge's salary is not enough to make a comfortable living and put two kids through college, and pointing out that lots of people get by on less doesn't wash. Most people are not qualified to be federal judges and if you want attractive candidates (rather than just minimally qualified ones) you have to pay them more money. Lutting recently left the 4th Circuit to become general counsel at some large corporation, where he will no doubt make far more than he did as a judge. Would it have been worth it to keep him if instead of $180k he was paid $250k or $300k? I think so.
1.1.2007 6:36pm
PersonFromPorlock:

I wanna know how Mike Bloomberg can send someone to a gun store to make a straw buy, and not be actually committing the crime of a straw buy.

Classic example of the "Important Person" rule.
1.1.2007 6:48pm
Respondent (mail):
Judges. I'm sick and tired of a Supreme Court with only two types of judges: Those that enforce the (political speech component of the) first amendment (hopefully the second also), and occasionally the tenth amendment- and those that enforce the rest of the bill of rights but don't enforce the tenth amendment at all, and only sporadically enforce the first amendment right to political speech. Seems to me that there are only three judges out there who would strictly enforce all the amendments without leaving them full of loopholes, or meaningless guarantees (a fourth amendment with no real deterrent, too many procedural due process denials upheld because of "harmless" error, too many exceptions to specific guarantees like "the child rape exception" to the right to confront a witness, etc.). Those judges are Janice Brown, Michael McConnell, and of course Alex Kozinski (maybe also Douglas "Marijuana" Ginsburg). There seems to be no serious presidential contender, unfortunately, who is willing to appoint judges in that mold. Is there any lobbying that can be done to change the picture?
1.1.2007 6:54pm
Jon Rowe (mail) (www):
Speaking of Ben Franklin, my research has uncovered that when the key Founders like Franklin spoke of "religion" in the generic sense, they meant not just the Christian sects, but all world religions, or at least all world religions with which they were familiar. It has been argued that when the Founders used the word "religion" in the generic sense, they meant just Christianity, some arguing just Protestant Christianity. While this may have been the case for many ordinary folks in the population, the key Founders -- Washington, Adams, Jefferson, Madison and Franklin -- when they said "religion," they meant religion in general, including non-Christian sects. The world religions with which they were familiar included, at the very least, Christianity (both Protestant and Catholic) Deism, Unitarianism, Judaism, Islam, Hinduism, and Native American spirituality. They also considered Pagan Greco-Romanism "religion." In his autobiography, Franklin equates orthodox Christianity with Islam.


Both house and ground were vested in trustees, expressly for the use of any preacher of any religious persuasion who might desire to say something to the people at Philadelphia; the design in building not being to accommodate any particular sect, but the inhabitants in general; so that even if the Mufti of Constantinople were to send a missionary to preach Mohammedanism to us, he would find a pulpit at his service.
1.1.2007 7:00pm
Jeremy T:

I wanna know how Mike Bloomberg can send someone to a gun store to make a straw buy, and not be actually committing the crime of a straw buy.


If I were a lawyer defending Bloomberg on such charges, I would argue that Bloomberg as mayor is a law enforcement officer and is therefore able to commit such an act with a qualified privilege (the privilege being that so long as it is done to enforce the law, he has the privilege to commit unlawful acts).
1.1.2007 7:09pm
Bottomfish (mail):
I am very interested in the multinational naval buildup in the Persian Gulf. For now, I think it is merely to scare Iran.
1.1.2007 7:10pm
Respondent (mail):
Another point- No one has seemed to notice that Justice Alito has implied that he is hostile to a gun friendly interpetation of the second amendment. John Roberts said explicitly during his conformation hearings that he supports an individual rights interpetation of the second amendment, but Alito said that he wouldn't have hesitated to uphold the federal ban on machine gun possession had there been a commerce element put into the law. I can only hope that SCOTUS only takes up the issue when they have a majority of judges willing to hold that the federal and state governments cannot ban any weapon that could be useful in fighting government oppression, namely all weapons but WMD's, which would kill so many civilians and really aren't necessary to fight an oppressive government. This would allow for a second amendment interpetation faithful to its originally understood purpose, and wouldn't put the supreme court into the ugly business of creating a non-existent "compelling interest" exception to the the right to bear arms, an exception that would render the second amendment useless to protect us from the next King George.
1.1.2007 7:14pm
Bottomfish (mail):
Come to think of it, I would like to know if it is possible for a nation in the genuine sense to be created without years of internal and/or external war. Examples?
1.1.2007 7:15pm
Perseus (mail):
Franklin was using the term "profit" in the sense of "the mean inducement of pecuniary satisfaction." So, arguing that judges should be paid more in order to obtain and to retain "better" judges (however defined) is to argue for employing the mean inducement of profit (rather than honor or public-spiritedness).
1.1.2007 7:35pm
Paxti:

Come to think of it, I would like to know if it is possible for a nation in the genuine sense to be created without years of internal and/or external war. Examples?


What do you mean by "in the genuine sense." An organic state or a modern nation-state? A federation or ethnic enclave? Doesn't the answer to your question depend on how one defines nation?
1.1.2007 7:43pm
John Herbison (mail):
Why isn't the reporter who makes a buy at a gun show charged?

Prosecuting attorneys beome prosecuting attorneys through one kind of political process or another--elective or appointed. Because a prosecutor's salary is typically less than what a talented lawyer can make in private practice, the position tends to attract the less talented or, more commonly, those to whom power matters more than money.

How many political animals are willing to pick a fight with those who order ink by the barrel?
1.1.2007 8:00pm
Randy R. (mail):
What's on my mind? Global climate change. My cousin returend to Alaska this summer and was shocked to see the same glacier he had seen just five years ago was melting away. I was in Moscow two weeks ago, and there was no snow there in December for the first time in recorded history. While there, I met people from Siberia who say the permafrost is no longer permanently frozen, creating havoc with the buildings. A friend of mine told me she has friends who vacation in Greenland every two years, and they see glaciers melting away pretty fast. For the first time, and inhabited island in the Indian Ocean has been swept away by the rising sea level.

Anyone who says that the earth isn't warming just in denial. What's going to happen to us?
1.1.2007 8:03pm
Paxti:

Prosecuting attorneys beome prosecuting attorneys through one kind of political process or another--elective or appointed. Because a prosecutor's salary is typically less than what a talented lawyer can make in private practice, the position tends to attract the less talented or, more commonly, those to whom power matters more than money.


Thanks for the FYI. I like seeing my life and career reduced to mediocrity in posts like this.
1.1.2007 8:10pm
Syd (mail):
Sean O'Hara (mail):
It's a well known "fact" that celebrities die in groups of three with some sort of connection between them. So what's the connection between James Brown, Gerald Ford, and Saddam Hussein?


Wrong triple. Saddam Hussein completes the triad beginning with Augusto Pinochet and Saparmurat Niyazov, the late dictator of Turkmenistan http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saparmurat_Niyazov.

Gerald Ford belongs with James Brown and Ahmet Ertegun, the founder of Atlantic Records, for, as James Brown sang, Ford was a "Funky President."
1.1.2007 8:26pm
33yearprof (mail):
Not all "conservatives" have the spine to stand up to bad PR (even if they have a lifetime job). As we discussed right here a week or so ago, Judge Michael McConnell is willing to retain bad decisions just because the Congress (and the Press) have gotten used to them. You know, cases like US v. Cruickshank (1876). As he might say, "It's been the law followed by the Circuits for over 100 years now ..." .
1.1.2007 8:50pm
Steven Zoraster (mail):
When did it become an accepted practice for testimony by the family of a murder victim to be used to influence the sentence of the criminal? Why did it become to be accepted, even expected? This practice has no place in a country where justice is based on the law, not vendetta.
1.1.2007 9:20pm
Glenn W. Bowen (mail):

Thanks for the FYI. I like seeing my life and career reduced to mediocrity in posts like this.


hey- you're the one who was seduced by... the dark side.

now, what about that reporter, counselor?
1.1.2007 9:39pm
Max Hailperin (mail) (www):
It's almost a month old, but I just got around today to reading HLPR's symposium on Levinson's "Our Undemocratic Constitution". He provides a concise summary of the book and then four commentators respond to it.
1.1.2007 9:47pm
MartyB:
So what's the connection between James Brown, Gerald Ford, and Saddam Hussein?
---

Their influence will be fleeting.

The more important group of three is Jeff Cooper, Jeanne Kirkpatrick, Alan Greenspan, all taken from us at the same time.

Coincidence? Conspiracy? You be the judge(es).
1.1.2007 9:49pm
Brian58 (mail):


I wanna know how Mike Bloomberg can send someone to a gun store to make a straw buy, and not be actually committing the crime of a straw buy.


Classic example of the "Important Person" rule.



Just like if you or me tried to walk out of the National Archives with classified documents stuffed in our socks, we'd be wearing Orange Jumpsuits. Sandy Berger, of course, being an "important person," gets a slap on the wrist.
1.1.2007 10:08pm
Speaking the Obvious:
It's a well known "fact" that celebrities die in groups of three with some sort of connection between them. So what's the connection between James Brown, Gerald Ford, and Saddam Hussein?

None were ever elected President of the United States?
1.1.2007 10:31pm
Paxti:

hey- you're the one who was seduced by... the dark side.

now, what about that reporter, counselor?

Well, I don't disagree about the press, but I would simply note that the aversion to taking on the media isn't limited to us lawyers with room-temperature IQ's:)

Aside to MartyB: I hadn't realized until I went to pick up my hunting/fishing license today that Jeff Cooper had died. RIP and Semper Fi.
1.1.2007 10:32pm
Steve in CA (mail):
Whoever said James Brown's influence will be "fleeting" has already been proven wrong.
1.1.2007 10:51pm
Redman:
Milton Friedman and Alan Greenspan are both dead?
1.1.2007 11:01pm
Jeremy T:

So what's the connection between James Brown, Gerald Ford, and Saddam Hussein?


None of them have ever been in my kitchen.
1.1.2007 11:22pm
Lev:
Why is the phrase "there are" disappearing from the English language?
1.1.2007 11:31pm
Glenn W. Bowen (mail):
Paxti:

my father-in-law had Jeff Cooper* as a guest in NYC a few times. Cooper's granddaughter is the NYSRP rep in the area.

and gave me a Cooper-style scout rifle, also.
1.1.2007 11:32pm
Respondent (mail):
Steven:
I don't remember the names of the cases, but victim impact testimony was banned by the supreme court and allowed in a reversal just a few years later. In this case, the appears to have come about solely due to a one justice change- Justice Powell was replaced by Justice Kennedy
1.1.2007 11:51pm
Brian G (mail) (www):
I'm thinking that I just enjoyed the heck out of the Fiesta Bowl and Boise State's win over Oklahoma. What a great game. I wish this happened during a playoff, and Boise State got a shot against another top team. A great game that reminded me why I love football.
1.2.2007 12:54am
Paxti:

I'm thinking that I just enjoyed the heck out of the Fiesta Bowl and Boise State's win over Oklahoma. What a great game. I wish this happened during a playoff, and Boise State got a shot against another top team. A great game that reminded me why I love football.


I think I just crapped my pants. What. A. Game.
1.2.2007 1:01am
John Herbison (mail):
I think that the cases that Respondent refers to are Booth v. Maryland, decided in 1987 and reversed by Payne v. Tennessee in 1991.

These cases dealt with Eighth Amendment and Due Process limitations applicable to sentencing in death penalty cases. Sentencing in some jurisdictions is now governed by statutes, which may permit or may exclude victim impact testimony.
1.2.2007 1:03am
curious:

I'm thinking that I just enjoyed the heck out of the Fiesta Bowl and Boise State's win over Oklahoma. What a great game. I wish this happened during a playoff, and Boise State got a shot against another top team. A great game that reminded me why I love football.


I think I just crapped my pants. What. A. Game.


She said yes!!!
1.2.2007 1:04am
Sasha Volokh (mail) (www):
MartyB: By Jeff Cooper, do you mean this one? Also, by Alan Greenspan, you probably mean Milton Friedman.
1.2.2007 1:19am
DeezRightWingNutz:
I'm thinking that "Big Game" Bob Stoops just got his jock handed to him (do coaches wear jocks?) for about the fifth time in the last few years.

Petersen (sp?) totally outcoached OU. Apparently, BSU used its month off to practice numerous trick plays, which were implemented to great effect. OU installed some formation with AD at wideout that didn't work very well, drew up a few plays that resulted in illegal formation/shift penalties, and obviously didn't come out fired up to play.

It was a great game, but OU's talent should have prevailed. I mean, Vanilla Ice is BSU's QB, and Ian Johnson wouldn't start for most BCS conference teams.
1.2.2007 1:33am
Randy R. (mail):
When did it become an accepted practice for testimony by the family of a murder victim to be used to influence the sentence of the criminal?

Yeah, like some family is going to say that their dad was a deadbeat son of a bitch, and the murderer should get a lighter sentence....
1.2.2007 1:36am
Glenn W. Bowen (mail):

By Jeff Cooper, do you mean this one?


son, there is only one.
1.2.2007 1:36am
Paxti:
Glenn: I didn't always agree with Cooper's opinions, but he wrote very well and I enjoyed reading his latest missive every month. Above all, he was a good American and he will be missed.
1.2.2007 1:46am
Mary Katherine Day-Petrano (mail):
"What's on my mind? Global climate change."

Mine too — and how this is going to change bar admissions and reciprocity among states to accommodate forced migration (especially north from Florida).
1.2.2007 2:39am
Mary Katherine Day-Petrano (mail):
"Anyone who says that the earth isn't warming just in denial. What's going to happen to us?"

When Florida goes underwater, there's going to be an exodus of attorneys to the north. Maybe as far as Kentucky.
1.2.2007 2:46am
Huck (mail):
Come to think of it, I would like to know if it is possible for a nation in the genuine sense to be created without years of internal and/or external war. Examples?

Norway.
1.2.2007 3:59am
Visitor Again:
"What's on my mind? Global climate change."

And on mine. The latest news about the break-up of huge ice caps and flows is shocking. And an inhabited island has been swallowed up by the ocean.

I have no expertise in the area, but my gut tells me that we have left it way too late to take any actions that would minimize the consequences and that the younger contributors to this blog will see the mother of all natural disasters, perhaps even fatal to life on the planet. It's doubtful I'll be around for it, but I wish those of you who will be all the best. I would add that I do not think a rejuvenated federalism will help. But I suppose some people still want to play the fiddle while Rome burns.
1.2.2007 4:20am
Visitor Again:
On a lighter note--fiddling while Rome burns--I wonder whether my beloved Montreal Canadiens will break their record for going the longest time in their history without winning the Stanley Cup.

They went 12 seasons without winning between their victories in 1930-31 and 1943-44. They last won the Cup in 1992-93, and failure this spring will make it 13 successive seasons without winning (not including the abandoned 2005-06 season, in which no Cup competition was held).

I was spoiled rotten; the first 27 seasons I followed them (1952-53 to 1978-79) after my arrival in Canada as a nine-year-old immigrant from England, they won the Cup 16 times. But the last 27 seasons, they've won only twice (1985-86 and 1992-93). Hard times. But I have a feeling we will return to glory this year with Guy Carbonneau and Bob Gainey in charge, and we will sing once again, "Les Canadiens sont la."
1.2.2007 5:05am
anonVCfan:
Why do 4 of your conspirators remain on the list, but never blog?
1.2.2007 8:11am
Gino:
I really liked the Sci-Fi/literature thread. I have a ton of new books on my reading list now. It should help make for an interesting year (as far as my reading life goes).
1.2.2007 8:37am
Guest2 (mail):

Why is the phrase "there are" disappearing from the English language?



It is?
1.2.2007 8:56am
Daniel Chapman (mail):
Go Packers! 8-8 is respectable, all things considered, and the playoffs were a pipe dream anyway. Favre's coming back.
1.2.2007 9:39am
American Psikhushka (mail) (www):
I have a question:

If some parties who were less than honest and law-abiding were using the administrative and/or mental health law of a particular state - let's say NJ - to medically assault and abuse, defraud, and possibly even commit extrinsic fraud or "fraud upon the court" against someone who would be aware of these types of scams? Would all the family law practitioners in this jurisdiction know about these types of scams? Would they have to keep quiet for fear of losing their practice? Who else would know about scams (or excuse me, legal practices) like this and wouldn't be forced to keep quiet about it?
1.2.2007 9:45am
JosephSlater (mail):
I was very disappointed in Michigan's peformance in the Rose Bowl, but as my wife said, perhaps the team was honorning the memory of Bo S. by losing that particular game.

As to the law, I continue to wonder why various bloggers here -- so sensitive to real, alleged, or potential infringements and restrictions of Free Speech rights in all sorts of contexts -- haven't discussed (here, at least) Newt Gingrich's call for limiting current First Amendment rights in the name of fighting terrorism.
1.2.2007 10:15am
Houston Lawyer:
Why is it that the High Def football games are broadcast in 720i instead of 1080i? Amazon.com delivered my new TV in 4 business days, but DirecTV can't send the guy with the proper ladder to get on my roof to install the HD dish even with two weeks notice.

I was stunned with the swiftness of Saddam Hussein's execution, but pleased that it didn't result in two decades of appeals. The right wing of the blogosphere has had damn little to say about the execution. But then again, what can you say when an evil man get what he justly deserves.
1.2.2007 10:16am
dearieme:
Just in case no-one else has made the observation:-

't ain't what you taint, it's the way that you taint it.
1.2.2007 10:26am
M.E. Lopez (mail):
Randy R. (mail):
What's on my mind? Global climate change. My cousin returend to Alaska this summer and was shocked to see the same glacier he had seen just five years ago was melting away. I was in Moscow two weeks ago, and there was no snow there in December for the first time in recorded history. While there, I met people from Siberia who say the permafrost is no longer permanently frozen, creating havoc with the buildings. A friend of mine told me she has friends who vacation in Greenland every two years, and they see glaciers melting away pretty fast. For the first time, and inhabited island in the Indian Ocean has been swept away by the rising sea level.

Anyone who says that the earth isn't warming just in denial. What's going to happen to us?


Uh... people will move inland and towards the poles? Siberia will become a verdant paradise? Greenland will be green, and Vinland will have good wine again. Alaska and Canada will be more pleasant places to live, and Argentina is going to pick up some wicked good cropland.

I'm not exactly terrified of these prospects. Humans are resilient creatures.
1.2.2007 10:28am
Nikki:
American Psikhushka --

IANAL. But the situation you describe sounds like something that should be mentioned to the attorney of the wronged party, or to a prosecutor. Without you making your "hypothetical" less vague, it's hard to be more specific than that. Tongue in cheek: the prosecutors can't all be corrupt, even in New Jersey. (Mild mockery directed at New Jersey, not prosecutors.)
1.2.2007 10:42am
abean:
Since we appear to be concerned about climate change... is anyone else amused that by releasing a DVD Al Gore ensures that he need take no action to correct the record on those parts of his presentation that have been falisified--afterall the DVD is just a historical record of what was shown in movie theathers a year ago.

Shocking.

Well lets be clear:

-- Study published in Science that purported to review the available literature and determined that no controversy existed within the scientific community: absolutely and utterly falsified.

-- Connections between recent hurricanes, heat waves, flooding: not reputable

-- Famous CO2/Temperature Graph: abuse of scale, misleading commentary. He literally says during the presentation that it is clear that CO2 precedes temperature. Actually it only seems that way because of the resolution used to display the graph. The data he cites shows that in the 600,000 year period covered, temperature increases led C02 by 800 years. Though it does remain possible that after 800 years CO2 drives temperature, of the two possible physical mechanisms:
* CO2 -> greenhouse effect -> temperature
* Ocean Temperature -> solubility of CO2 in water -> CO2 partial pressure in the atmosphere
The latter has been shown in the lab to be a much strong effect by an order of magnitude

Finally CO2 -> greenhouse effect -> temperature is a nonlinear relationship (logarithmic)--each additional amount of CO2 produces less and less temperature change in lab experiments.

The only true part of his presentation is what might happen should temperatures rise 5 degrees. Indeed there would be much harm... and we are on an upward trendline 0.13 degrees/decade.

But the antropological case: simply not accepted.

Seriously, though, we should be demanding higher standards of presentation. Tolerating 'art and guile' only contributes to the problem. As for this post, well its a comment on a blog. I think I've done quite enough.
1.2.2007 10:47am
AppSocRes (mail):
The whole point of people seeming to die in threes is that these deaths are, in fact, independent events and unrelated except in the minds of paranoids. A Jesuit statistician wrote a paper in one of the major statistical journals back in the 1970s demonstrating that random, independent events like deaths tend to clump temporally in groups of three. (He was reacting to an old Jesuit sayting that Jesuits tend to die three at a time.) Unfortunately, I can't remember any of the details.

As to global warming: If the planet were not warming it would be cooling -- unless you're dingbat enough to assume that earth's climate does not (should not?) change.

Overall I'd prefer a warmer climate: ice ages tend to be unpleasant and leave about half the US under a mile or so of glacial ice. On the other hand some global warming would have many advantages. After all, the Medieval climactic optimum (so called because the climate at the time seemed highly salubrous for humans) was several degrees warmer on average than the climate I grew up in.

As another poster pointed out, opening up millions of square miles of Siberian tundra for agricultural production is hardly a disaster. Nor would be the creation of a northwest passage, reduction of winter energy consumption in the northern tier of the US, etc., etc.
1.2.2007 11:06am
Mary Katherine Day-Petrano (mail):
Wow -- "Since we appear to be concerned about climate change... is anyone else amused that by releasing a DVD Al Gore ensures that he need take no action to correct the record on those parts of his presentation that have been falisified--afterall the DVD is just a historical record of what was shown in movie theathers a year ago.

Shocking.

Well lets be clear:

-- Study published in Science that purported to review the available literature and determined that no controversy existed within the scientific community: absolutely and utterly falsified.

-- Connections between recent hurricanes, heat waves, flooding: not reputable

-- Famous CO2/Temperature Graph: abuse of scale, misleading commentary. He literally says during the presentation that it is clear that CO2 precedes temperature. Actually it only seems that way because of the resolution used to display the graph. The data he cites shows that in the 600,000 year period covered, temperature increases led C02 by 800 years. Though it does remain possible that after 800 years CO2 drives temperature, of the two possible physical mechanisms:
* CO2 -> greenhouse effect -> temperature
* Ocean Temperature -> solubility of CO2 in water -> CO2 partial pressure in the atmosphere
The latter has been shown in the lab to be a much strong effect by an order of magnitude

Finally CO2 -> greenhouse effect -> temperature is a nonlinear relationship (logarithmic)--each additional amount of CO2 produces less and less temperature change in lab experiments.

The only true part of his presentation is what might happen should temperatures rise 5 degrees. Indeed there would be much harm... and we are on an upward trendline 0.13 degrees/decade.

But the antropological case: simply not accepted.

Seriously, though, we should be demanding higher standards of presentation. Tolerating 'art and guile' only contributes to the problem. As for this post, well its a comment on a blog. I think I've done quite enough."


A critique that is nothing but a lot of fluff.

What I can say first hand is that the winter temperatures are up 13 degrees above normal in central west coastal Florida this year, people are sweating down here like summer 2002 during winter 2006-7, and my yardstick tells me the tides have risen on Clearwater Beach at least 2-3 feet higher than other years past. We are having numerous unprecedented extreme high and low tides.

When you see the effects of global warming, it it time to believe, and Florida's attorneys and bar applicants are already accumulating their provisions to head north.
1.2.2007 11:16am
Mark Field (mail):

ice ages tend to be unpleasant and leave about half the US under a mile or so of glacial ice.


Sure, but melting ice caps tend to leave everything south of the Missouri Compromise line under water. Hmm. Maybe Dems can support global warming after all.


opening up millions of square miles of Siberian tundra for agricultural production is hardly a disaster.


Except for the small detail of the methane gas release which will accompany this. But look on the bright side: there's our new energy source and we can enjoy using it on our new beach front property in Tennessee.
1.2.2007 11:17am
Mary Katherine Day-Petrano (mail):
Winter temperatures up 13 degrees above normal in central west coast Florida -- that is 84-86 degrees non-believers!!! In December!!!
1.2.2007 11:21am
Just an Observer:
FYI, Tony Mauro has an interesting profile of Paul Clement at LegalTimes.com. h/t HowAppealing.
1.2.2007 11:25am
Mary Katherine Day-Petrano (mail):
In a nutshell, lawyers south of the Missouri Compromise line are going to be having to head for high ground, and very last thing they should be facing in this national crisis-chaos is the whole bar admission rigamarole in other states. Full licensure reciprocity and one national bar admission is a matter of necessity under a national global warming/climate change initiative.
1.2.2007 11:30am
Randy R. (mail):
This is exactly the attitude that really scares me:

Uh... people will move inland and towards the poles? Siberia will become a verdant paradise? Greenland will be green, and Vinland will have good wine again. Alaska and Canada will be more pleasant places to live, and Argentina is going to pick up some wicked good cropland.

People make it sound like global warming might even be a benefit! As though moving all the coastal cities is such a snap -- no, it won't disrupt the economy! All the hundreds of millions of people that would be displaced worldwide, not to mention the loss of cultural and architectural treasures, who cares! All that spreading desert and dust storms, just a nuisance! The loss of hundreds of species, such as the polar bear, just collateral damage! Since it would also entail the stop or reversal of the Atlantic conveyor belt that brings warm air to Europe, most of Europe would actually get much colder.

It's just amazing the how people can talk about global warming as though it's no big deal. I guess if you live in a tacky suburban subdivision, leaving it for another isn't a problem.
1.2.2007 11:39am
Randy R. (mail):
I've never been to Venice, but it one city I've always longed to see Better see it now, before it's under water.

But hey, who cares if one of the world's greatest artistic cities is lost -- I want my SUV!
1.2.2007 11:41am
abean:

What I can say first hand is that the winter temperatures are up 13 degrees above normal in central west coastal Florida this year, people are sweating down here like summer 2002 during winter 2006-7, and my yardstick tells me the tides have risen on Clearwater Beach at least 2-3 feet higher than other years past. We are having numerous unprecedented extreme high and low tides.

Woooo there. Last time I checked, the UN predictions were pessimistically 5 degrees (celcius) in 50 years. If you claim that we've actually warmed 13 degress (f) in one year... I am going cry statistical foul, "application of the 'law' of small numbers".

http://www.cei.org/newIncludes/
images/iain-globaltemp_chart.gif

Notice among other things that it directly controverts Al Gore's statement that 2005 was the hottest year on record.
1.2.2007 11:48am
Mary Katherine Day-Petrano (mail):
"I guess if you live in a tacky suburban subdivision, leaving it for another isn't a problem."

Actually, I live on a sailboat on the beach -- Gulf Coast barrier island.

"As though moving all the coastal cities is such a snap -- no, it won't disrupt the economy!"

That's why we need attorney licensure reciprocity now. The migrating masses and the infrastructure will follow the lawyers. Look at Katrina.
1.2.2007 11:48am
MartyB:
re:This Jeff Cooper? and.. "by Alan Greenspan, you probably mean Milton Friedman."

Of course I meant Milton Freidman. Thanks. I realized over my morning coffee that I had made that mistake and hurried over here to correct it, but thanks to your mind reading abilities, you have done it for me.

And yes, I was referring to the good Colonel. This isn't the proper venue for a discussion of his influence on modern society, but it has been more subtle and pervasive than a lot of people realize, IMO.
1.2.2007 11:53am
Mary Katherine Day-Petrano (mail):
"If you claim that we've actually warmed 13 degress (f) in one year... I am going cry statistical foul, 'application of the 'law' of small numbers'."

Ya'll come on down to Florida and see for yourself. Cry all you want, it is irrefutably HOT.

"Notice among other things that it directly controverts Al Gore's statement that 2005 was the hottest year on record."

Last time I looked at a calendar, I observed 2006 followed 2005. No contradictions there -- just an ever warming trend, predictably so.

We cannot belabour what we cannot change, it is time to prepare for bar reciprocity and the inevitable migration to come.
1.2.2007 11:54am
abean:

I've never been to Venice, but it one city I've always longed to see Better see it now, before it's under water.

But hey, who cares if one of the world's greatest artistic cities is lost -- I want my SUV!

Uh. Venice is sinking into the mud. Many buildings have abandoned their first floor. In the winter, the city lays planks of wood down so that people can cross the city square. None of this has anything to do with global warming b.c. at least as of yet, the ice sheets that have broken up have all been floating.

The city of Venice actually has plans to build a wall and series of locks around the city to locally lower and control the sealevel.

Much as they already do in the netherlands--which would actually _already_ be under water were this not already being done.
1.2.2007 11:56am
Richard Aubrey (mail):
Report of an unprecedented cold snap in northern India killed seventeen people.
In Australia, unprecedented cold weather has followed the path of Al Gore's visit recently, so that unseasonably cold weather is known as "the Gore Effect."
Hot and cold weather abnormalities happen. You pick the ones you like to prove whatever will get you the grant or panic the citizenry into giving up rights and money.
Actually, it's been about eight years of stable temps.
Was the southeastern US flooded during the Medieval Warm Period?
1.2.2007 12:01pm
Guest2 (mail):
Three things I'd like to see eliminated beginning in 2007:

1. Starting a comment with "Uh" or "Um."

2. Starting or ending a comment with "Sigh."

3. Writing comments in all lowercase.
1.2.2007 12:15pm
Surely You Jest:

However, when the judge's job pays $200,000 a year and the partner is making $2 million a year the gap is too large. A judge's salary is not enough to make a comfortable living and put two kids through college, and pointing out that lots of people get by on less doesn't wash.


I'd rather make $2 million than $200,000 for sure. However, even at $200,000 I bet I could live comfortably, get those kids through college, and retire within 15-20 years. Unless you're suggesting that judgeships are contingent upon not knowing how to manage money?
1.2.2007 12:16pm
Marc in Eugene (mail) (www):
The island-disappeared-beneath-onrush-of-rising-ocean etc etc (apocalypse, apocalypse now) story looks to be simply wrong.
1.2.2007 12:18pm
Mary Katherine Day-Petrano (mail):
"Actually, it's been about eight years of stable temps."

Not true. In Florida, since 2002 (when I first arrived), the temperatures have risen every year since then. Summer 2002, it was a very warm day if the temps exceeded 84 degrees. Summer 2006, it was 93-94 degrees almost every day from June thru Sept. Now winter 2006, WINTER temps are 84-86 degrees.

Temperatures have NOT been stable. And neither have the rising sea levels.

I love the people who draw bogus conclusions from things for which they have NO firsthand personal knowledge. They just make it up as they want their perfect world to be.

Wait until the migrating hordes of humanity move north when Florida goes underwater -- all your perfect worlds will shatter.

In the meantime, I'm headed for high ground -- attorney licensure "reciprocity now and forever!!"
1.2.2007 12:19pm
Mary Katherine Day-Petrano (mail):
Re: the Justice Roberts underpaid federal judges story -- it is my observation the Supreme Court was also built on low lying land and will like Florida go underwater as global warming accelerates sea level rise.

We need both additional funding for federal judges, relocation of some of our lowlying federal courthouses, and attorney licensure reciprocity now!!
1.2.2007 12:24pm
whit:
chuck liddell

the man is simply amazing. what a fight. AGAIN

also, the arrival of cro cop into the UFC heavyweight division is going to be awesome
1.2.2007 12:25pm
Mary Katherine Day-Petrano (mail):
"chuck liddell

the man is simply amazing. what a fight. AGAIN

also, the arrival of cro cop into the UFC heavyweight division is going to be awesome"

For everyone reading this response to the discussion of the very real threat of global warming, it is a predictably typical denialist tactic. In the words of Scarlet O'Hara, some will prefer to put off the inevitable reality they cannot face "until tomorrow." "Fiddle-dee, fiddle-dum."

Others, who have read Watership Downs, know it is already too late, reality is here. Floridians are dumping their beach condos and moving to higher ground. Attorney reciprocity now and forever!
1.2.2007 12:37pm
Ken Arromdee:
"If you claim that we've actually warmed 13 degress (f) in one year... I am going cry statistical foul, 'application of the 'law' of small numbers'."

Ya'll come on down to Florida and see for yourself. Cry all you want, it is irrefutably HOT.


Do you actually know what the "'law' of small numbers" is?

It's hot *in Florida*. Florida, however, is not the world. Since weather fluctuates, it will always be possible to point to some unusual heat or cold and claim that this "proves" the temperature is changing in any direction whatsoever.
1.2.2007 12:43pm
American Psikhushka (mail) (www):
Nikki-

IANAL. But the situation you describe sounds like something that should be mentioned to the attorney of the wronged party, or to a prosecutor. Without you making your "hypothetical" less vague, it's hard to be more specific than that. Tongue in cheek: the prosecutors can't all be corrupt, even in New Jersey. (Mild mockery directed at New Jersey, not prosecutors.)

Thanks for the reply.

The prosecutors in the area concerned are suspicious, and the person in question doesn't really have enough information yet - still piecing it together. That's why they're looking for who would be familiar with some of the scams they use with the administrative and mental health laws. Or maybe with the local courts in general.
1.2.2007 12:46pm
Don Miller (mail):
Last week George Mason U ran a full page ad in the Idaho Statesman wishing Boise State good luck in the Fiesta Bowl.

As a BSU Alum and Bronco fan, THANKS GMU! Your luck appears to have rubbed off.

I laugh, I cried, I cheered and I danced. What a finish. We had family call from all over the country to tell us what a great game it was.
1.2.2007 12:56pm
Cornellian (mail):
Why are open threads so rare around here, instead of every Sunday?
1.2.2007 12:59pm
Mary Katherine Day-Petrano (mail):
KA, indeed, Florida is not the world. It is a microcosm reflectingwhat IS going on the world over. We have other corroborating signs of the impending global warming disaster too numerous to mention.

Oscillations of El Nino (warming Pacific Ocean unable to absorb the atmospheric effects of global warming), accelerating and becoming more frequent, and China's CO2 emissions increasingly flowing over Northern California.

Most sea life species predicted to become extinct by 2050 due to increasing acidity of the Oceans.

Greenland glaciers melting at accelerated rates. North pole ice shelves melting and threatening survivial of polar bears.

Siberian permafrost melting and causing building foundations to tilt off center. Antartica Ross Ice Shelf melting and threatening to fall off into the sea.

A smaller Antartica ice shelf size of Rhode Island already melted and fell into the sea.

Glaciers in Himalayas melting and threatening to dry up Ganges, Bramaputra, Yellow, and Yang Zee rivers, threatening water supplies for billions of people living in India and China.

Amazon river basin temperatures rising and Amazon forest threatened and predicted to become a grassy savannah.

Increasing numerous killer heat waves in the United States and Europe.

Increasingly strong and accelerating number of killer Hurricanes -- e.g. Katrina and winter 2006 pictures of New Orleans speak for themselves.

Austrian alps not getting snow base sufficient for skiing.

NYC and most of the East Coast a balmy 50 degrees most of winter 2006-2007, so far.

Read the Rand corporation reports. They began predicting global warming as early as 1975.

As I said, it is time for action -- attorney licensure reciprocity now and forever(!!) to allow a smoother transition of government for the reality of our inevitable-chaotic future. Otherwise, there will be no rule of law.

And THAT is the reality of the world to come.
1.2.2007 1:13pm
Mary Katherine Day-Petrano (mail):
"Thanks for the reply.

The prosecutors in the area concerned are suspicious, and the person in question doesn't really have enough information yet - still piecing it together. That's why they're looking for who would be familiar with some of the scams they use with the administrative and mental health laws. Or maybe with the local courts in general."

What are you implying? Are you a prosecutor saying the long record of disabilities my husband and I have are somehow a scam because we are posting our thoughts about global warming and necessary changes to attorney licensure and likewise have exercised our federal reasonable accommodation rights under Title II of the Americans With Disabilities Act and Tennessee v. Lane?

Please immediately identify yourself, since it is a violation of federal criminal law to post such defamatory inaccurate veiled accusations about someone under an anonymous blog ID.

For your information, perhaps you should recommend checking objective verifiable EEGs documenting epilepsy and objective verifiable vision examinations documenting vision loss just to be sure. That is better than an unsupported guess and numerous additional efforts to get a second, third, fourth, etc bite at the same apple of res judicata "record of" disability findings by impermissible collateral review over several California and Florida state and federal courts and agencies.

I would also be happy (when you identify yourself) to send you documentation of a federal judge who made an excited utterance during a May 2006 hearing, 'What, are you blind? You can't see my court reporter right here in the front of my courtroom?' corroborating an objectively verifiable existing vision impairment disability.

I am sure you are aware that Congress just passed a $1 Billion autism research package to learn more about this disability.

Your threats are in and of themselves an unlawful retaliation in violation of 42 U.S.C. Sec. 12203, Sec. 504 of the Rehabilitation Act of 1973, and the First Amendment to the federal Constitution.

And also yet another deliberate distraction from the discussion of the impending global warming debate.
1.2.2007 1:30pm
Richard Aubrey (mail):
Mary K.
Most hot spells in the US are said to be the hottest on record since either 1933 or 1934. Ditto droughts. What happened then?
We're having a wimpy winter in Michigan, but the last few have been normal. We've had fewer spells of 90+ than we did some years ago. Apparently getting air conditioning did the trick. Desperate for it when we didn't have it, pleased to have it some days since.
And, the polar caps on Mars are shrinking.

Several questions: Is it really happening? Is it going to be different from earlier temperature swings? Is it going to be as bad as the professional doom-mongerers claim--after having bailed on The Coming Ice Age--in temps, droughts, and so forth? Is it substantially anthropogenic?
1.2.2007 1:30pm
Richard Aubrey (mail):
Mary K. As long as we're doing the my-little-space-and-time-reflects-the-entire-world thing: I have some relations who visited the Disney emporium in your area in December and were hit with unseasonbly cold weather. Keep moving or you'll be run over with a glacier.
BTW: Predictions of the future cannot be used as data used to predict the future.
1.2.2007 1:32pm
JerryM (mail):
Mary,
Quick, get to CVS, you're meds are in!!

The climate is always changing. Relax. Watch the HD Discovery show on the sun (which is responsibile for warming the earth) and see how the sun emits pulses of energy. Is it not possible the sun's energy is not constant and is causing the varying temps, as opposed to the governator's Hummer.
1.2.2007 1:39pm
Mary Katherine Day-Petrano (mail):
Thank you, RA. I grew up in Michigan. We have tried air conditioning here in Florida, too. But has been getting so darn HOT over the past few years, even air conditioning does not make it bearable to live here anymore -- especially during Florida's increasingly brutal summers. we wish it would cool down.

Good point about the ice caps on Mars. In a little more than a billion yeas or so, the sun is predicted to become a Red Giant, and envelop Mercury, Venus, and reach the Earth. At least we still have time to learn more about space travel and colonization. I do believe President Bush's idea of further man-trips to the Moon and Mars is brilliant. Stephen Hawkings foretells that eventually the only possibility for survival of the human race in the future is to go into space and find another hospitable planet.

In the meantime, your questions are good ones. I do not think we yet have all the answers how global warming will play out. A lot more research is going on now. But we do know it is happening and accelerating, and we see the effects of global warming everywhere.

We also have to recognize the increasingly accelerating effects of global warming are upon us, plan for it, and move to action -- attorney licensure reciprocity is a good first step.
1.2.2007 1:44pm
Mary Katherine Day-Petrano (mail):
"Mary K. As long as we're doing the my-little-space-and-time-reflects-the-entire-world thing: I have some relations who visited the Disney emporium in your area in December and were hit with unseasonbly cold weather. Keep moving or you'll be run over with a glacier.
BTW: Predictions of the future cannot be used as data used to predict the future."

RA, we have had two very short cold spells in the mid-40s at night. The most recent cold spell lasted only two days before temperatures shot up to 84-86 degrees. Almost colicked my disability service horse. But two short cold spells does not dispel the acceleration of global warming. In years past, we had weeks of very cold weather all winter long, and no persisting temperatues in the 84-86 degree range.

FYI -- I was not using predictions of the future to predict the future. I used the past and present effects of global warming to predict the future.
1.2.2007 1:51pm
Mary Katherine Day-Petrano (mail):
"Mary,
Quick, get to CVS, you're meds are in!!

The climate is always changing. Relax. Watch the HD Discovery show on the sun (which is responsibile for warming the earth) and see how the sun emits pulses of energy. Is it not possible the sun's energy is not constant and is causing the varying temps, as opposed to the governator's Hummer."

JerryM, spoken as a true Californian. Thank you for the evidence which I will be submitting as attached exhibits to Federal Judge, Hon. James D. Whittemore, in support of how my disabilitis are inaccurately perceived (or "regarded as") and repeatedly mocked. If you did know the nature of my disabilities, you would know they do not impair my intelligence, and I have been a long reader of Scientific American and National Geographic since age 7 and am well versed with the operation of the Sun upon the Earth. I also have long been a reader of Rand Corporation global warming reports as well, and how too munch CO2 and methane in the Earth's atmosphere operates to produce acclerating effects of global warming and climate change.

Please be so kind as to identify yourself in compliance with the federal criminal law that prohibits defamatory spurious attacks on a person's disabilities under an anymous blog ID.
1.2.2007 2:00pm
whit:
mary, i don't know if u are trying to be funny, but my post was not a response to

"the discussion of the very real threat of global warming,"

as you claim/ here's a little hint for you

it's an OPEN THREAD

i have no opinion on global warming, thus i do not opine, since i don't know enough about it to comment.
1.2.2007 2:02pm
Beerslurpy (mail) (www):

When did it become an accepted practice for testimony by the family of a murder victim to be used to influence the sentence of the criminal? Why did it become to be accepted, even expected? This practice has no place in a country where justice is based on the law, not vendetta.


One of the many reasons we have a criminal justice system is to provide an alternative to private-party retribution, which generally has sloppy standards for evidence and procedure. To be effective as an alternative, we must incorporate the things that the victim's family would otherwise seek in most cases- here, retribution against the wrongdoer. We do this because our society demands and expects it.

If most people cannot get what they consider to be justice from the courts, they will seek alternative paths to it. This would be far more harmful and costly than changing the court system to conform to your minority view of fairness.
1.2.2007 2:03pm
whit:
mary, actually, despite your claim, you DID use predictions of the future as "signs of global warming"

your post had some data about the world (not the above case) as WELL AS **predictions** by various "experts" all touted as "signs" of global warming

if i quote three stock market analysts who PREDICT the dow at 50k in 5 years, that is not a SIGN the dow will reach that #.

the term sign is pretty clear. also, in medical terminology, signs (and symptoms) are defined.

don't intersperse data with PREDICTIONS and call them both signs

signs are observable phenomena

predictions are predictions
1.2.2007 2:13pm
AppSocRes (mail):
Mary K. -- I now realize you are attempting parody. The problem is that your assumed persona is so close to that of the dingbats you're trying to parody that everyone here -- myself included -- seems to have thought you were for real. Sometimes political humor has to be really over the top to be appreciated!
1.2.2007 2:13pm
Mary Katherine Day-Petrano (mail):
Ok, whit, you are excused. But the other denialists are so predictable everytime there is a discussion of global warming.

Beerslurpy, you make many valid points. I think the most important thing to remember, however, is that there is also a civil venue for the victims of others -- e.g., how my husband and I became the victims of admitted and confessed perjury in our admiralty case by a key witness for the other side. It is also important to recognize that people truly deserving of attorney licensure continue to place their faith in the system of justice we do have, and that at some point there will be a remedy -- like the Holocaust survivors who had to bring several rounds of lawsuits before they got their reparations.

Our Nation, indeed, has a long history of judges who did not lack the courage or moral compass to buck popular sentiments against enforcement of civil rights and justice that are the law of the land.
1.2.2007 2:16pm
Mary Katherine Day-Petrano (mail):
"Mary K. -- I now realize you are attempting parody. The problem is that your assumed persona is so close to that of the dingbats you're trying to parody that everyone here -- myself included -- seems to have thought you were for real. Sometimes political humor has to be really over the top to be appreciated!"

AppSocRes -- by however and whatever means you say. Your level of language usage is a little over the level for which an autistic is capable. I really did not get the *gist* of what you were trying to say, because (maybe you don't know this, but you do now) an autistic only understands things said literally.

If would would please explain what you said, perhaps I might be able to address your concerns.
1.2.2007 2:23pm
Mary Katherine Day-Petrano (mail):
"mary, actually, despite your claim, you DID use predictions of the future as 'signs of global warming'

your post had some data about the world (not the above case) as WELL AS **predictions** by various 'experts' all touted as 'signs' of global warming

if i quote three stock market analysts who PREDICT the dow at 50k in 5 years, that is not a SIGN the dow will reach that #.

the term sign is pretty clear. also, in medical terminology, signs (and symptoms) are defined.

don't intersperse data with PREDICTIONS and call them both signs

signs are observable phenomena

predictions are predictions"


whit, you pose a great riddle of muddled thinking. Anyone who took Logic 101 knows comparing the ability to *predict* acceleration of global warming to the rise in value in the stock market violates the Fallacy Rule of comparing apples to oranges (an untrue, invalid analogy).

Therefore, your suggestion that the rule of the existence of 3 specific stock market analyses are insufficient cause to make a valid generalization somehow applies to global warming does not hold. Global warming science and actual photos/scientific documentation of numerous present indicators (specific facts/pics set forth above plus ice cores) from which (via weather prediction/climate change science) is validly and reliably predictive are entirely different than the manner in which one would econometrically *predict* the stock market.

This is why we have Fed. R. Evid. 702/Daubert-Kumho gatekeeping to ensure a qualified expert in teh exact subject matter is the one providing the predictive opinion. In sum, a tire salesman can neither predict the future of the stock market nor global wamring, any more than a Series 7 licensee can predict acceleration of global warming, or a non-autism-vision acuity non-expert can evaluate or predict the reasonable accommodations suitable for and utilized for several years by a vision-hearing impaired autistic-learning disabled person.

Another rule of Logical Fallacies is the notion that every subject is cut and dry/black and white -- is or is not. Thus, whit, the statement "also, in medical terminology, signs (and symptoms) are defined," is not entirely accurate. The DSM-III was updated to the DSM-III-TR, to the DSM-IV, to the DSM-IV-TR, and will continue to be updated and refined as scientific knowledge advances -- e.g., it seems pretty obvious that in the years following the spending of Congress' December 2006 appropriation of $1 Billion for autism research by the NIH and NIMH much new knowledge will become known about autism and associated other developmental disabilities and even brain injuries we do not know now.

So, no, it is not accurate to make the blanket statement "in medical teminology the signs (and symptons) are defined" -- and that is the heart of the Americans With Disabilities Act's requirement to evaluate the actual functional limitations of a person with disabilities rather than making inaccurate assumptions from labels. Autism and learning disabilities, for instance, are highly variable in functional limitations across categories.

Likewise, "signs are observable phenomena." Unfortunately, in some cases, e.g., disabilities, this definition does not hold true. Some disabilities are *invisible* to the uninformed, untrained eye -- and that is why we have the requirement of Fed. R. Evid. 702/Daubert-Kumho experts.

As far as the acceleration of global warming (like autism), that involves different kinds of experts who are still learning, whereas with stick market econometrics the expert knowledge has reached a stable plateau. As I said, the analogy between the stock market and global warming does not hold -- they are apples and oranges, an invalid analogy.

"don't intersperse data with PREDICTIONS and call them both signs." whit, please do not put words I never said into my mouth. You said that, not I. And such language riddles with an autistic are not fair rules of play.

In sum, the point I am making is global warming is a reality, and people will be migrating to high ground, leading to the necessity of attorney licensure reciprocity.
1.2.2007 2:57pm
Mary Katherine Day-Petrano (mail):
P.S. whit, does whit=Whittemore?
1.2.2007 3:00pm
Glenn W. Bowen (mail):

Why are open threads so rare around here, instead of every Sunday?


look at this- ya gotta ask?

:)
1.2.2007 3:02pm
Mr. Morgan (mail):
I make a motion that we have no more of these meetings that have been initiated by George Costanza.
1.2.2007 3:26pm
Nikki:
Mary Katherine - if you scroll up the thread (or, better yet, click this link, as the thread has gotten rather long), you will see that American Psikhushka asked about that area of the law as it applies to New Jersey, in response to the declaration of an open thread.

If you are in Florida (as your posts in this thread suggest), it's pretty unlikely that s/he was trying to insult you, even assuming that s/he knows anything about your personal medical condition. (If you've posted about it here before, I haven't seen it.)
1.2.2007 3:33pm
Randy R. (mail):
The insurance industry has no interest in scaring the public. Quite the opposite, in fact, and they have a reputation for being very conservative, politically and socially and economically. However, their profitability depends on accurate predictions based on current trends. Lloyd's of London, the world's oldest insurer and the standard bearer for all things insurance, has issued an advisory about global climate change. After all, if the predictions come true, it is their industry that will be hit first and hardest.

They conclude global change is here, and that it will be devastating. (Please check out their website). They advise all insurance companies to reduce their capacity for the entire east coast of the US, which many companies are already doing. Are these people caving to Al Gore's pressure? Are the wild-eyed liberals? Do they have an ulterior motive to take away people's property and liberties? Hardly.

But what all this means is that in the future, you will not be able to get the amount of property and casualty insurance that you need for your home, business, or office building. And what you can get will be very expensive. Why? Because they fear sea levels rising and threatening coastal cities, and more UNPREDICTABLE weather. It is the unpredictability that is key, since with it, you simply cannot correctly price premiums. Therefore, without it, it is best to simply not write any more business.

How will this affect you? The Washington Post already did a large article about this, and people and companies are already feeling the pinch. It will get much worse.

So I guess it's okay if you pay large premuims to the insurance company for half the insurnace you used to get, rather than to take that money an invest in cleaner fuels and technology, right?
1.2.2007 3:41pm
Guest2 (mail):
Randy R. -- Could you please provide a link to the specific Lloyd's materials you're referring to? I just did a (very quick) search at the Lloyd's site, but most of what I turned up on global warming seemed to be pretty vague. Thanks.
1.2.2007 3:58pm
whit:
i am pretty sure that Mary is a turing machine set to: VERBOSE MODE MAXIMUM
1.2.2007 4:10pm
Mary Katherine Day-Petrano (mail):
whit, "don't intersperse data with PREDICTIONS and call them both signs." I think you are very frustrated with exactly one of the functional limitations of my autism -- the lack of central cohesion/disorganization aspect (documented Calbar, 1996, Feinberg). You seem to be conflating the language impairment with an admiration of the intelligence and spoken abilities of autistic savantism, and not understanding how this juxtaposition can be. Welcome to what it means to be autistic.

Your real frustration is my lack an innate sense of how to organize things in a written format -- my organizational theme of the *signs* of global warming was more broadly *all the things we know about global warming from data/pics/studies* available over the internet. Maybe I should have cited my authorities for each *sign,* and provided my definition of what the term *sign* meant to me. However, this is a blog, and it is a very fatiguing task for someone with autism to post blogs in a format like a formal legal pleading placed in written format.

Nevertheless, I can teach you something about autism (and I learned this from my good law professors) -- if you want more organization from an autistic, nice neat categories and subcategories, etc., then you have to frame the question to pose the precise organizational framework you want. e.g., discuss in 250 words or less whether there is federal diversity jurisdictioon on (certain) facts. Or, e.g., discuss in 250 words or less each, whether there is federal jurisdiction on (certain) facts and, if so, on what basis.

But while my lack of central cohesion/disorganization functional liimitation frustrates you, it is not beyond redress -- and you still engaged in unfair word play by posing an invalid analogy, and any perceived lack of organization in my *signs of global warming* list did not change the substance or validity of my point -- Florida is going underwater, attorneys are going to migrate north, and we need attorney licensure reciprocity now.
1.2.2007 4:48pm
Mary Katherine Day-Petrano (mail):
Hey, Nikki, thank you for your insight. I'll get back with you on this at a later time.

Mary
1.2.2007 5:06pm
Mary Katherine Day-Petrano (mail):
whit, I am perplexed. Was that a compliment of some sort?

Your observation was actually quite incredible, in light of the fact my father, Kenneth Day, was an algorithym specialist who programmed IBM "Big Blue" computing machines -- I used to tag along evenings he worked and to quell my boredom, played and beat "Big Blue" at 3-D tic-tac-toe, at age 7 (circa 1962).

Your observation also captured the essence of autism, the typical 100% perfect photographic perfect memory. I was hired by a Harvard LLM (attorney-Stetson law prof) on the spot when I could remember where on a book shelf, where in the book, and where on the page a sub-sub-section of a statute was located along with the wording of that statute verbatim, while three other lawyers in the room fumbled trying to find the right bookshelf.

Like a turing machine, see 1.2.2007 5:42pm
lyarbrou (mail):
Those concerned with NYC washing away because of climate change, ostensibly as a result of increasing CO2 levels, should take a look at a paper which appeared in the latest issue of Science Magazine. Cycles of global warming and cooling have occurred for millions of years, much of the time before man even arose on planet earth. I am not a climatologist and I am not saying that increased CO2 may not produce climate change, just that we need to understand mechanisms of global events such as the researchers describe below before we panic about Al Gore's "Inconvenient Truth".


The Heartbeat of the Oligocene Climate System
Heiko Pälike,1* Richard D. Norris,2 Jens O. Herrle,1,3 Paul A. Wilson,1 Helen K. Coxall,4 Caroline H. Lear,4 Nicholas J. Shackleton,5{dagger} Aradhna K. Tripati,5 Bridget S. Wade6
Science 314, 1894-1898 (2006).

Abstract
A 13-million-year continuous record of Oligocene climate from the equatorial Pacific reveals a pronounced "heartbeat" in the global carbon cycle and periodicity of glaciations. This heartbeat consists of 405,000-, 127,000-, and 96,000-year eccentricity cycles and 1.2-million-year obliquity cycles in periodically recurring glacial and carbon cycle events. That climate system response to intricate orbital variations suggests a fundamental interaction of the carbon cycle, solar forcing, and glacial events. Box modeling shows that the interaction of the carbon cycle and solar forcing modulates deep ocean acidity as well as the production and burial of global biomass. The pronounced 405,000-year eccentricity cycle is amplified by the long residence time of carbon in the oceans.

Selected paragraphs

Attempts to understand Quaternary glacial-interglacial changes in ice volume and temperature have shown that the coupling between external forcings, the carbon cycle, atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, and glaciations is extremely complex. Nevertheless, records from the past few hundred thousand years indicate that glaciations lag changes in the carbon cycle and orbital forcing (1). An insight into the mechanisms that link these three elements of the Earth system is crucial to successfully modeling past and future climates accurately. A good understanding of the carbon cycle response to external forcing requires data series several times longer than the longest orbital variations, which are on the order of millions of years and which we show here are an important feature of climatic records during the Oligocene.

....
Attempts to understand Quaternary glacial-interglacial changes in ice volume and temperature have shown that the coupling between external forcings, the carbon cycle, atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, and glaciations is extremely complex. Nevertheless, records from the past few hundred thousand years indicate that glaciations lag changes in the carbon cycle and orbital forcing (1). An insight into the mechanisms that link these three elements of the Earth system is crucial to successfully modeling past and future climates accurately. A good understanding of the carbon cycle response to external forcing requires data series several times longer than the longest orbital variations, which are on the order of millions of years and which we show here are an important feature of climatic records during the Oligocene.
1.2.2007 5:45pm
Mary Katherine Day-Petrano (mail):
The link did not work -- reposting:

whit, I am perplexed. Was that a compliment of some sort?

Your observation was actually quite incredible, in light of the fact my father, Kenneth Day, was an algorithym specialist who programmed IBM "Big Blue" computing machines — I used to tag along evenings he worked and to quell my boredom, played and beat "Big Blue" at 3-D tic-tac-toe, at age 7 (circa 1962).

Your observation also captured the essence of autism, the typical 100% perfect photographic perfect memory. I was hired by a Harvard LLM (attorney-Stetson law prof) on the spot when I could remember where on a book shelf, where in the book, and where on the page a sub-sub-section of a statute was located along with the wording of that statute verbatim, while three other lawyers in the room fumbled trying to find the right bookshelf.

Like a turing machine, see http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/turing-machine/, autistics lack the brain cells to read emotions and therefore socialize or think intuitively, especially in written format.

If you want to eliminate the turing verbosity/translation/interpretation problem, and bring autistic communication into the age of artificial intelligence, I have a suggestion — a speech recognition device to enable the spoken word to be imprinted in writing.

Mary
1.2.2007 5:46pm
Daniel Chapman (mail):
*sigh*

(With apologies to Guest2)
1.2.2007 6:01pm
Insignificant Dallasite:
People make it sound like global warming might even be a benefit! As though moving all the coastal cities is such a snap -- no, it won't disrupt the economy! All the hundreds of millions of people that would be displaced worldwide, not to mention the loss of cultural and architectural treasures, who cares! All that spreading desert and dust storms, just a nuisance! The loss of hundreds of species, such as the polar bear, just collateral damage! Since it would also entail the stop or reversal of the Atlantic conveyor belt that brings warm air to Europe, most of Europe would actually get much colder.

The Earth has been through cooling cycles before, and it's still around. Humans may not survive, but neither did the dinosaurs. They didn't create and couldn't prevent their extinction, and neither will we. But think of all the new species that will evolve after we're gone!
1.2.2007 6:19pm
Mary Katherine Day-Petrano (mail):
lyarbrou --

Your Earth warming/cooling science under *normal* non-manmade constraints is impressive. And your point is? Simply that my causation analysis might be wrong? My concerns go well beyond this debatable point.

I. Causation of Temperature Rise:

I have considered the following:

A. The MBA approach -- make assumptions of input factors (non-man-made 13-million-year continuous record of Oligocene climate oscillations), then do a calculation based on assumed factors, arrive at conclusion contra Al Gore's "Inconvenient Truth." Therefore, humans are not causing global warming.

(Walk across the street to the law school, and ...

B. The Law School approach -- assume nothing, investigate the factors involved on the theory GIGO (garbage input, gargabe output).

Sub judice, since appx. 1850, humans have been erecting factories with smoke stacks belching CFCs and CO2 into the atmosphere, and manufacturing a glut of gas guzzling cars, while cutting down trees and forests (CO2 reuptake inhibitors).

Investigate further, with research teams to the Artic, Antartica, and other glacial areas, take ice cores of millions of years ice/snow accumulation, and analyze the air bubbles within the cores to determine the atmospheric composition over those millions of years, and even further back (the jury is still out on this factor).

1975 Rand Corp. report notes we are putting too much CO2 into the Earth's atmosphere, and this can't be good for maintaining climate stability.

I have not drawn my ultimate conclusion as to causation for this, but I have noted the *signs* everywhere that the Earth is warming (pics/facts/studies borne out over time, so far). Regardless of the debate over causation, why do I care about global warming?

II. Effect of Temperature Rise:

Despite the debatable cause of global warming (for which it is still premature to draw certain causation conclusions), one thing IS certain -- human life can withstand only a certain finite increase in global temperatures before almost certain death will occur to all humans (up to 45.6 degrees C, or 115.7 degrees F). see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermoregulation (recommending actions humans can take to cool down until the non-human survival point is reached or exceeded).

In sum, if you ultimately turn out to be correct in your non-man-made oscillation theories, and humankind cannot stop a rise beyond the certain human non-survival range, then the debate will no longer matter, nothing will matter, since we will all cease to survive, and your point of dispute will all be irrelevant.

III. Actions Humans Can Take in the Meantime to Avoid the Effects of Global Warming (Sea Level Rise/Hot Temperatures)

Watch out for sea level rise that will put Florida underwater, be prepared to act by migrating north, and ensure the legal profession will go on by attorney licensure reciprocity.

THAT was my point.
1.2.2007 6:33pm
Mary Katherine Day-Petrano (mail):
"up to 45.6 degrees C, or 115.7 degrees F" -- that is over the long haul, for an extended period of time.
1.2.2007 6:34pm
Mary Katherine Day-Petrano (mail):
That was internal human temps, assuming range of 128 degree F shell temps cause the internal heating, roughly.
1.2.2007 6:48pm
Partner (mail):
Will someone please give that woman some billable work?!
1.2.2007 7:13pm
Lev:
Guest2

ummm

Listen

(sigh)
1.2.2007 10:42pm
American Psikhushka (mail) (www):
Beerslurpy-

If most people cannot get what they consider to be justice from the courts, they will seek alternative paths to it.

And when that happens they'll be prosecuted or subjected to retribution themselves, especially if they're wrong.

That's some beautiful logic there - like courts in the deep south before the Civil Rights era: "Well if we don't hang this innocent person the lynch mob's going to do it."
1.3.2007 1:26am
NS:
Mary,

You should be working at the NSA. A mind is a terrible thing to waste.

(I am not being facetious ... take me literally.)
1.3.2007 2:40am
Mary Katherine Day-Petrano (mail):
NS, I have been seeking employment commensurate with my abilities for over 17 years, but you see NO one in all those years has been willing to employ a qualified individual with a disability who uses a speech recognition device accommodation -- or grant one bar admission. Such a waste for such a stupid reason.

I am resigned to the fact this prejudice will never change, and I have set in for a long Virgil Hawkins-esque court battle.

Hopefully, I will be the last qualified autistic denied employment and bar admission by reason of autism in the history of this Nation.

It would be so much easier if someone would just offer me and hire me in a good job and capitalize on my talents.

*Sigh*
1.3.2007 2:52pm
Mary Katherine Day-Petrano (mail):
Hey, Ap --

I would appreciate more of your insight on this issue -- are you writing about NJ as you first said, or about the deep South as you now say? Which story is it you prefer?

If you are speaking of the deep south, my heroes are attorney (Justice) Thurgood Marshal, bar applicant-attorney Virgil Hawkins, Justice Hatchett, and District Court (now Circuit)Judge Tjoflat.

Mary
1.3.2007 3:01pm
American Psikhushka (mail) (www):
Mary-

I would appreciate more of your insight on this issue -- are you writing about NJ as you first said, or about the deep South as you now say? Which story is it you prefer?

There is no changing story, my comments were about two separate topics in this thread.

In one topic I asked whether anyone had knowledge or could point me to who would have knowledge of some of the scams that attorneys and others perform using the administrative and mental health laws in NJ.

In another topic Beerslurpy and others were dicussing the input of victims and the public on sentencing. It sort of turned into some advocating the courts becoming a vigilante mechanism to "prevent" private acts of vigilante-ism, hence my comment to Beerslurpy about the Deep South.
1.3.2007 5:00pm
Mary Katherine Day-Petrano (mail):
AP, thanks for the further insight. Your comments, intervening as they did in the middle of the global warming-attorney reciprocity discussion, did not seem particularly relevant or responsive to that discussion.
1.4.2007 1:48am
Mary Katherine Day-Petrano (mail):
There is a new global warming report on yahoo news this morning:

link

2007 predicted to be the hottest year on record yet. That with the other data/pics gives clear signs it is time for attorney licensure reciprocity now — before the northward migration of attorneys incapable of taking bar examinations as a consequence of the ensuing climate chaos begins.
1.4.2007 9:49am