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The Meat Market Pyramid:
There's an interesting thread at the Greedy Clerk's board about the AALS "meat market," the annual conference where law schools host first-round interviews for entry-level professorships. A bunch of the questions concerned how many interviews schools schedule, and when, how many 1st-round interviews lead to second-round, second-round to offers, etc.

  I thought I would add in my two cents on this. Practices vary, of course, but in my experience, most schools interview anywhere from 15 to 50 candidates, and invite around 20% of the AALS interviewees for a second-round full day interview (for a total of anywhere from 3 to 10 full-day interview for each school). At most schools, the chances of getting an offer once you have a full-day interview (aka the jobtalk) is probably around 1 in 3. These odds vary tremendously, obviously, based both on different candidates and different schools. For example, I know someone who had something like 11 AALS interviews, and ended up with an offer from every school but one. But on the whole, a rule of thumb might be that if you have an AALS interview with school X, your chances of getting a permanent offer from school X are probably in the neighborhood of 10%.
Craig Oren (mail):
I regret that I don't know how to post a link here without messing it up. If you'd like, you can google "So you want to be a law professor" You'll find some remarks by Michael Froomkin and me about the process.
8.28.2006 5:35pm
TO (mail):
Prof. Oren, and others, the discussion is here. It's been in my bookmarks for the past few years...
8.28.2006 6:25pm
James Lindgren (mail):

Orin wrote:

But on the whole, a rule of thumb might be that if you have an AALS interview with school X, your chances of getting a permanent offer from school X are probably in the neighborhood of 10%.


Or, to put it another way, among the more selective half of schools you see at the AALS, your chances are about 5% at each one, and among the less selective half of schools, your chances are about 15% at each one.


Unfortunately, these chances are correlated.
8.28.2006 8:16pm
Justin (mail):
James, I think your logic isn't neccesarily correct.

The movement is going to be based on how many people they decide to interview (between 15 and 50), unless they cannot descriminate pre-interview. Those that are more selective about who they initially interview relative to the amount of open spots will give you a better shot (ie are going to base more of their decisions on the numbers, and less on the interviews), given that they have selected you to interview. Those that are less selective about who they interview, (ie that they are going to cast a broader net for numbers, but be more demanding of the interiew, will give you a less of a shot once you are selected to interview.

Or the number could simply be dependant on how many positions each school has to fill.

But if two law schools use different strategies, one getting 1000 applications for 50 interviews for for 10 callbacks for 2 offers, and one getting 1000 applications for 15 interviews for 5 callsbacks for 2 offers, neither would be more selective.

Furthermore, if two law schools exist, one getting 3000 applications for 50 interviews for 10 callbacks for 3 offers, and one getting 1000 applications for 15 interviews for 3 callbacks for 1 offer, it might mean that the first law school needs to give 3 offers to get one professor. Or it might mean that the first law school has 3 open positions and the other law school has only one open position. The first might support your proposition, but the latter explanation would not.
8.28.2006 9:22pm