2008 and The Political Calculus on Miers:

Right now things are obviously frothy on the political front--both of the Washington papers (the Times and the Post) report on the heated meetings that took place yesterday between conservative activists and the White House on the Miers nomination. Democrats seem to be standing back and enjoying the show for now.

Here's what I will be interested to watch for politically--will one of the likely 2008 Republican Presidential candidates decide that he or she can break from the pack and score points with conservatives by opposing this nomination? Brownback and Santorum have been noticeably evasive so far. I've heard nothing from George Allen, McCain, or Frist--perhaps I've just missed reports on them though. Could any of them score points with conservative activists by moving first?

If one or more of the conservatives peels away from the President on this nomination, then the feeding frenzy could be on. At that point it seems difficult for Democrats, notwithstanding Harry Reid's enthusiasm for her, to toe the party line and support a stealth nominee that even many Republicans think unqualified. If, however, he keeps all of the Republicans on the reservation, then I think she will probably barely survive. Of course, then there is the question of what kind of deals the President might have to cut to keep them on board.

If the Times and Post reports are accurate, then surely some prospective 2008 Republican Presidential candidates must be asking themselves the same question.


I've been tied up with the ACTA Conference, so haven't been posting. If you happen to stumble across this post, however, the Comments have several updates about the positions of the various Senators discussed here.