Latest SCOTUS Odds:

Sean Sirrine rounds-up the latest SCOTUS appointment odds from the various gambling houses around the world.

As others have noted, these markets seem to be quite unreliable and thinly traded. BetUS, for instance, has Miguel Estrada at 3 to 1, which seems somewhat implausible.


Sean Sirrine says that these markets work good enough for him. For current purposes, he does make a good point in his response--if there is only one seat open, what matters is whether the markets correctly pick the top choice, not whether the odds on the second, third, or tenth-place choices are relevant. If the value in the market is the one-zero prediction of who gets the nomination, this may require a different set of information than that suggested by Bainbridge.

Michael @ CIR (mail):
Will they let me bet against Miguel at 1 to 3 odds? :).
7.15.2005 12:53pm
Proud Generation Y Slacker:
Estrada's about 50:1 at tradesports. Hmm, I smell an arbitrage opportunity, one that could get me, oh, maybe $10!
7.15.2005 4:20pm
Tom Tildrum:
"Sean Sirrine says that these markets work good enough for him."

Shame on Sean, then. He should, of course, have said that these markets work well enough for him.
7.15.2005 8:48pm
Zywicki (mail):
You're right, of course. In doing the quick update, I changed the structure of that sentence at the last second to add in the reference to "these markets" and forgot to change "good" to "well". I'm not sure whether pleading an editing error is better than a grammatical error.

Good catch.
7.18.2005 11:48am
Sean Sirrine (mail) (www):
Whew! I thought my reputation was ruined! ;)
7.19.2005 3:36am