Latest SCOTUS Odds:

Sean Sirrine rounds-up the latest SCOTUS appointment odds from the various gambling houses around the world.

As others have noted, these markets seem to be quite unreliable and thinly traded. BetUS, for instance, has Miguel Estrada at 3 to 1, which seems somewhat implausible.


Sean Sirrine says that these markets work good enough for him. For current purposes, he does make a good point in his response--if there is only one seat open, what matters is whether the markets correctly pick the top choice, not whether the odds on the second, third, or tenth-place choices are relevant. If the value in the market is the one-zero prediction of who gets the nomination, this may require a different set of information than that suggested by Bainbridge.