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Should Democrats Reconsider Their Position on Global Warming?

"Sunny days ahead for GOP as population shifts south."

But if it gets too hot in Georgia...

Bruce Hayden (mail):
Delimma on both sides.

But in the end, it probably won't matter that much, except maybe in the Senate, due to its two Senators for each state makeup. The reason is that in the long run, what matters is the national makeup, at least for the House and the Presidency, since population shifts are handles by reapportionment.

Reversing myself a bit, it is possible to win the presidency with less than a majority if you have a lot of one party in some states, but a much lower majority of the other party in others. Thus, for example, you have Texas going for Bush by over a million votes, when, if a lot of those votes were moved to toss-up states, they could be won.

But of course, it is unclear which party would benefit from that the most.
7.11.2005 1:33pm
Goober (mail):
Utterly specious article, I fear. Yes, Nevada and Florida have gotten bigger---and so receive more representation---as migrants from the Northeast have moved there, but they've also gotten more Democratic (I don't think the ex-New Yorkers living in West Palm Beach were very similar to the old Smathers voters, e.g.). So while it's made the former redder-than-red states electorally more valuable, it's also put them in play. Florida's only the most dramatic example of this, but if you'll recall, it came rather close to delivering its electoral votes to Gore in 2000, and did go to Clinton in '96.
7.11.2005 2:25pm
Steve:
I don't get it. As people move south, they turn from Democrats into Republicans?
7.11.2005 6:26pm
Qanon (mail):
In Texas the state went from being Democratic, through and through to being a Republican stronghold -- all on the strength of move-ins from California, New York, etc.

The people moving did become Republicans as they moved south.

What is important to follow is the demographics of party distribution. Utah, for example, is a red state not because it is LDS (the minority leader for the Democrats in the senate is LDS) but because of the mass of young families.

Before, back before the population shifted about, Utah was a solidly Democratic state which is why the rules that exclude LDS missionaries from census numbers (so that Utah comes up a member of the house of representatives short). Republicans put that rule in motion, just in time to hurt themselves when it finally came to rest.

So, the move south does make families transition from Democrats to Republicans more quickly, but it is also the natural demographic move.

Florida is in play because the demographics have moved differently.
7.11.2005 6:44pm
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