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Gonzalez Futures:

As others have noted, Gonzalez futures at TradeSports exploded sometime yesterday.

When I looked a couple of days ago, Garza was way ahead, trading at 30 with all others including Gonzalez) down in the low teens. Where Garza futures are headed also seems reflected in his large bid-ask spread.

Gonzalez also has the most trades on the market--does anyone know how much it would take to move this market significantly in a day or so?

Proud Generation Y Slacker:
The contracts are $10 each, so the daily volume is under $30,000. The volume on the Gonzales contract is $7,000. Look at the bid-ask spreads. For all the contracts, the total bid is 93 and the total ask is 146. I conclude this market is about as efficient as a Gristedes run by striking Frenchmen.
7.5.2005 8:06am
johnP (mail):
Pocket change for Soros.

These types of things are as useful as polls, bought and paid for content for news-itorial writers.

Do a slanted poll, write a news-editorial story, call it news, put it on the front page of the NYTimes, hope the public is stupid enough to believe it.
7.5.2005 8:26am
sammler (mail) (www):
If you click on the Gonzalez contract, it brings up the history and order book. The total number of contracts bid is 69, so you could blow through all of them at an average contract level of about 25.8 -- since each whole contract is only $10, this means you lose 74.2%*69*10=$510 if Gonzalez is in fact appointed. In short, no actual money is changing hands here.
7.5.2005 9:17am
anonymous coward:
I noticed the tradesports move, too--I thought it was probably a result of all the dailies playing up conservative opposition to Gonzales. (Ergo, there must be a big chance of Gonzales actually being nominated.) But considering the small dollar amount it could just be a rumor, founded or otherwise.
7.5.2005 10:06am
Justin (mail):
Soros? :)

It's always Soros for you whenever Tradesports doesn't predict something you'd like. Is there any evidence he CARES about Tradesports? Knows it exists?
7.5.2005 10:22am
Charlie Eldred (mail):
It's GonzaleS. With an S.
7.5.2005 11:07am
sammler (mail) (www):
Oops. I blame Tradesports, who can't spell it either.
7.5.2005 12:15pm
sammler (mail) (www):
The amounts are so small it doesn't have to be Soros, or even anyone with a deep interest. It's one weekend's keg money for a small fraternity.
7.5.2005 12:20pm
Buck Turgidson (mail):
The change may have something to do with comments by John Yoo.
7.5.2005 1:11pm